498
FXUS61 KCLE 262328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Scattered showers with isolated thunder have developed across
portions of the Mahoning Valley this evening. Increased the
potential for showers through sunset in this area. No severe
weather is expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase today with severe
weather potential late tonight and late Monday evening. Afterwards,
periodic showers possible across NE OH and NW PA into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The upper level ridge across the Central CONUS continues to build as
a series of shortwaves move around the northern periphery through
the middle of the week. Firstly, there is a slight chance for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening, though coverage should be minimal. Late tonight into
early Monday morning, the first of the shortwaves will move just
west of the region and precipitation chances will increase.
Current guidance has an MCS tracking along a thermal gradient
that is situated northwest to southeast across Indiana. Recent
trends have this feature not impacting northwestern Ohio until
Monday morning, if the precipitation does reach this far east.
Any storms that do reach the area have the potential for strong
to severe winds, and as a result, much of the region is under a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather on SPC`s Day
1 Severe Weather Outlook.

There will be a lull in precipitation into the afternoon on Monday
before the second shortwave ahead of a surface low pressure tracks
through the Great Lakes region to the southeast. The upper level
ridge, and thermal gradient will have shifted to the east a little
more as well. Out ahead of the surface low, bulk shear vectors will
be out of the northwest at 40-50 knots that will support strong to
severe thunderstorms Monday evening. As the front approaches late
Monday night, storms will develop into a more linear mode. Damaging
winds will be the main threat throughout the event, especially with
the linear mode, but can`t rule out any large hail given the
strength of the deep layer shear and instability in any cells
developing ahead of the line. There is still some uncertainty given
how the 12Z models have handled this feature, with the HRRR keeping
it well to the west and the NAM Nest developing it across central
Michigan and moving into northern Ohio. In addition, how long
precipitation lingers through the morning and coverage of any late
evening storms may inhibit storm development with the front. Highest
confidence currently is in northwestern Ohio to Cleveland, south
through the Mansfield area for damaging wind impacts. SPC
currently has the entire area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of
5) for severe weather with the main driver being the damaging
wind threat.

Behind the cold front Tuesday morning, a surface trough will linger
across the eastern portion of the region with strong northerly flow
expected. Residual moisture is expected, primarily across
Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania that will aid in
lake effect showers developing. Periodic showers are possible across
the aforementioned area through at least Wednesday when drier air
moves into the region from the west with high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will persist over the next few hours with mostly
clear skies with the exception across the Mahoning Valley where
some diurnal cu and associated showers are currently moving
south. These scattered cloud decks are ranging between
3500-5000 ft but any further lowering may result in a brief
period of MVFR at KYNG and KCAK, but given low confidence did
not include in the TAF. Tonight the potential for patchy fog
returns across inland terminals as moisture values continue to
creep up. Opted to lower those terminals to 5SM with this
update, but in isolated areas visibilities may be reduced to
3-4SM at times. Near sunrise, the fog should quickly lift as
temperatures and winds increase. There is a non-zero chance for
additional showers and storms across the northern terminals,
especially KTOL as a decaying MCS sags south. Confidence in
spatial extent remains low and may be isolated west of the area.
Additional storms and non-VFR conditions will once again be
possible Monday late afternoon into the evening, but given low
confidence in timing and extent opted to handle this potential
with MVFR PROB30.

Light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly at
7-11 knots by Monday afternoon with isolated gusts up to 20
knots possible at western terminals.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Monday morning through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light winds and waves will continue on Lake Erie through
Monday, except for locally higher in and near any thunderstorms
that drop across the lake tonight through early Tuesday morning.
Confidence in thunderstorms tonight is low, but confidence and
potential is higher Monday and especially Monday night as one or
two clusters may drop across the lake.

Otherwise, W winds will increase to 10-15 knots Monday night as
a strong cold front crosses Lake Erie, with winds becoming NNW
and increasing to 15-25 knots Tuesday. NNW winds will continue
at 15-25 knots at times through Wednesday, so Small Craft
headlines and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents are
likely Tuesday through Wednesday. NNW winds will gradually
diminish to 5-10 knots by early Thursday, becoming light and
variable Friday as high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Garuckas