387
FXUS61 KCLE 250839
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening area of low pressure will lift across Michigan
today before departing into eastern Ontario and Quebec by
Tuesday, pulling a cold front through the region tonight. A
trough will linger across the Great Lakes Tuesday before high
pressure attempts to build in Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our weather pattern this week will become unsettled and
potentially impactful starting today. A surface low is over
northern Illinois this morning and a warm front extends from it
into central Ohio. This warm front will lift through the area
later this morning. The surface low will track northeastward
through Lower Michigan and start to deepen later today and
tonight. As the warm front lifts northward today, we may see
areas of drizzle or light misty showers develop throughout the
day. A trailing cold front from the low pressure system will
move through the area tonight. Ahead of the cold front,
temperatures will climb into the lower and mid 50s this
afternoon.

The cold front will move through late this evening and
overnight with rain showers likely. Tuesday`s 24 hour high
temperature will likely occur just after midnight tonight with a
slow fall in the temperatures through Tuesday morning. The
temperatures may bump back up to the lower 40s around midday on
Tuesday before they start a slow slide downward into the 30s
during the afternoon. Most of the area will be dry behind the
passage of the cold front late tonight through the day on
Tuesday. As colder air aloft moves in on Tuesday, it will help
develop some scattered lake effect rain showers during the day
for the primary Snowbelt. As temperatures drop into the 30s, the
lake effect rain showers will change over to light snow showers.
Blustery conditions will develop on Tuesday with westerly winds
15 to 25 mph and gusts likely up to 35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough ejecting out of the Rockies results in southern
high plains cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking into the Ohio
Valley region during the short term forecast period. Upper level
trough will lag northwest of the surface low, coming through the
Great Lakes during this time frame. There has been consistent
questions with this feature on the exact track and how far north the
precipitation shield will extend, and then the precipitation types
as it tracks south of the CWA. 850mb temperatures below zero, but
column temperatures below 850mb probably going to be right on the
cusp of the rain/snow threshold. Hourly temperatures coming down
just prior to 12Z Thursday to the freezing mark or just below which
should support some wet snow away from the lake, but should get into
the upper 30s to lower 40s for Thursday and all rain considerations
at that point. Think there will be some more details to iron out
with this system as the synoptic scale models are still not hugely
consistent. There are hints of the mid/upper level low digging, and
if this is the case, the temperatures might be slightly optimistic
on the warm side by a couple degrees, which would be all that is
needed to generate more snow in the forecast for late Wednesday
night without the same temperature recovery Thursday, although still
coming in as rain at that time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect to start Thursday night with -8 C to -12C 850mb plunging
into the region from the northwest. Surface temperatures will be
becoming less and less of an issue in the forecast, and there is a
significant threat of lake effect snow developing for the long
terms. The region will be dominated by upper level troughing for the
foreseeable future with steady reinforcements of colder air via
upper trough axes swinging through. The attention, of course, is
going to turn to the lake effect potential as Lake Erie water
temperatures are still relatively warm  with a sufficiently cold
airmass passing across it. Wind directions critical to the location
of the lake effect setups, and still a bit far out to be trying to
hammer out those details. Models, however, keep hinting as surface
troughing over the lake at times which could create some oscillation
in the low level flows, shift ting the focus of the snow potential.
Again, details to come, but the extended forecast is definitely on
the cold side, with lake effect prone areas likely seeing periodic
snow with accumulations expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Conditions will start out as VFR early this morning. By late
morning through this afternoon, conditions will become MVFR to
IFR as ceilings lower and areas of drizzle and mist spreads over
the area from west to east. By late this afternoon and evening,
most TAF locations will be in IFR to a few locations seeing LIFR
conditions due to very low ceilings and visibility between 2sm
and 4sm with drizzle and showers. Mainly IFR conditions will
continue through 06z Tuesday for most locations. Rain showers
will spread over the area late this afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves through. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots from the
southeast this morning becoming southerly 8 to 12 knots later
today. Winds will shift from the southwest and west later this
evening 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will linger Tuesday. Non-VFR
likely in rain and/or snow Wednesday night through Thursday,
becoming all snow by Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds today replaced by strong westerlies in the wake
of a cold front coming through generally after 00Z Tuesday.
Winds increase to 30kts in the western and central basins, and
sustained 35kts for the eastern basin, where a Gale Watch is in
effect for Monday night through Tuesday. Wave heights for the
western basin around 3-5ft, central basin 5-9ft, and the eastern
basin 9-11ft. Winds ease and become southwesterly Wednesday at
10-15kts, becoming variable Wednesday night as low pressure
passes west to east to south of Lake Erie. By Thursday, expect a
period of onshore winds for an extended period of time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...26