853
FXUS61 KCLE 201952
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Much of the forecast remains on track with the convection tonight
and tomorrow. Quite a bit of uncertainty still remains in the
potential for severe weather tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tonight
through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible, but there continues to
be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and coverage.

2) Below average temperatures arrive mid-week before gradually
returning to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure departs off the Mid-Atlantic Coast today, an
upper level trough will begin to dig south across the Great
Lakes region. This trough will support a deepening low centered
over Ontario and will aid in the development of upstream
convection in the region beginning today. Remnants of this
convection are expected to move into the far northwestern
counties in the CWA late tonight, where SPC currently has a Day
1 Marginal Risk (1 of 5). There remains uncertainty with how
organized this convection will remain given the lack of
instability during a non- diurnally favorable time, but some
gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible. By the time they move
east of the I-75 corridor, expecting them to be primary rain
showers and sub-severe, but cannot rule out a few isolated
rumbles of thunder.

On Tuesday, the associated cold front is expected to push east
across the area, acting as a focal point for additional convection
to develop. Confidence is high that there will be storms given the
synoptic support that this trough will provide, the tricky part is
the extent and magnitude of the severe risk over the area. In the
mid-levels, a vort max will push east ahead of the trough axis
providing mid-level support at the same time a strong (35-45 knot)
LLJ moves over the area. This coupled with dewpoints climbing into
the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday should allow for thunderstorms
development, especially east of I-75 where there is the greatest
potential for destabilization to occur by Tuesday afternoon.

The tricky part about the Tuesday forecast is a result of
uncertainty regarding how the decaying overnight/early morning
convection will impact destabilization across the area. If cloud
cover lingers longer than it is currently forecast to, then there
could be less instability that develops come the afternoon, limiting
the overall robustness of storms across the area and placing the
axis of severe storms further to the southeast. On the flip side, if
the cloud coverage clears quickly and instability quickly increases,
the region could see a shift in the severe potential to include
areas further west.

Opted to ride the middle ground with this forecast package with some
cloud coverage lingering, but instability still increasing to over
2000 J/kg given the strong WAA and moisture expected. With all of
that, SPC has maintained the Day 2 Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) for the
extreme far southeastern counties and a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for the
bulk of the remainder of the area with the exception of the Toledo
metro area. With this setup, the favored storm mode would be a large
MCC with the primary threat being damaging winds up to 70mph and
potentially a few embedded tornadoes. There is a non-zero chance for
isolated large hail. Will have to monitor overnight convection
trends to get a better grasp on the potential tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the robust cold front that moves east tomorrow, temperatures
are expected to cool quite a bit, falling well below average for
this time of year on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary,
850mb temperatures of 17-19C will push out of the region as 850mb
temperatures closer to 7-8C push south. This quick change in
temperatures will result in breezy conditions and a quick shift in
surface temperatures as well. Highs on Tuesday will climb into
the low to mid 80s, but will struggle to get out of the low to
mid 70s through Thursday with overnight lows expected to drop
into the 50s. This setup may also result in lake enhanced
showers impacting portions of the snowbelt given the very warm
lake temperatures. As high pressure returns late Thursday into
Friday, temperatures will slowly climb back to near normal for
this weekend with highs expected to be in the 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are currently seen across the region with a few sites
seeing MVFR visibility due to smoke/haze. There maybe times through
the overnight hours where visibility can drop to MVFR, though
confidence is low in where and when that would happen, so opt to run
with 6SM and haze through that time frame. Precipitation chances
increase out west at KTOL and KFDY late tonight around 06Z and
lasting through 13Z tomorrow morning. Confidence decreases in
impacts to terminals to the as the precipitation will be decaying
through the early morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms chances
will increase mid morning through the afternoon from KCLE/KMFD,
eastward with gusty winds and non-VFR conditions possible. A cold
front will sweep through late in the TAF period for KCLE and
precipitation chances will decrease with it.

Winds currently are light and at times variable across the region.
Any predominate winds will be out of the southwest at less than 10
knots. A lake breeze will impact KCLE and KERI this afternoon,
shifting winds to be out of the north through 02-03Z tonight. Winds
will shift to be out of the south at less than 10 knots through 12Z.
Mid-morning, winds will increase out of the south-southwest at 10-15
knots gusting up to 25 and persist through the majority of the day.
Stronger gusts are possible in the afternoon, especially for
terminals in eastern Ohio as thunderstorms begin to develop.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday afternoon. Some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon may
contain strong wind gusts. Residual non-VFR possible on
Wednesday in rain showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie are currently pleasant with winds around
5 knots out of the west with waves less than 1 foot. As a warm front
moves south to north across the region tonight, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest with stronger winds possible in
the open waters. Waves will also build in the near shore to 3-5 feet
with occasional waves around 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the entire near shore zones starting at 8AM Tuesday. The
zones to the west of the Islands will be in effect through 4PM,
while zones to the east through Ripley, NY will be in effect through
10PM Wednesday. This is due to strong northwesterly winds behind the
cold front late Tuesday that will keep winds and waves elevated.
Additionally, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for Lorain
eastward from 8AM Tuesday through 8PM Wednesday due to the potential
for high rip currents. Conditions will begin to improve late
Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds in. Winds will
be out of the north at 5-10 knots with waves less than 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23