924
FXUS61 KCLE 241939
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight through Monday,
followed by the return of another low pressure system for
midweek.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will finally settle in over the southern Great
Lakes, and yet another upper level trough will drop into the region
from the north. This will continue to stifle any sort of significant
warm ups across the area as it keeps 500mb heights on the lower side
and 850mb temperatures in the low to mid single digits, although
some airmass modification will still continue to take place. As the
upper trough shifts southward, there will be an expanded area of low
level frontogenesis stretching from the central plains into northern
Indiana. Have the forecast dry for the western zones Sunday, but
this will likely result in another uptick in cloud cover from the
mid level moisture after some clearing takes places this evening
through early tonight. Upper 30s tonight in NW PA, but not expecting
a frost. Temperature increases for Sunday will be very slight over
the western zones in the 1-3F range, and 4-6F for the eastern zones
where the low level moisture off Lake Erie will finally have eroded.
Widespread 40s Sunday night, and near 50F for the immediate
lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad surface high over the Great Lakes with subtle mid level height
rises over the area Monday into Tuesday will keep conditions dry
with cooler than normal temperatures continuing, although some
moderation beginning as the week progresses. Attention turns to
precip chances returning to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as an
upper low cuts off over the northern Plains and a surface low
deepens over the mid Mississippi Valley/lower OH Valley and moves
towards the area. Deterministic models differ slightly with the
timing/evolution of precip chances into the area with isentropic
ascent ahead of the low, but chance pops into Tuesday evening and
likely pops for much of the area Tuesday night looks reasonable.
Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 60s Monday and Tuesday,
with perhaps a few areas reaching the low 70s Tuesday if precip
chances and associated cloud cover is slower to arrive to the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally warming trend expected mid to late week, with some
uncertainty late week into next weekend, with more unsettled weather
and periodic rain chances. Aforementioned upper low over the upper
Midwest will move eastward into Ontario/Quebec by Friday and will be
absorbed by a stronger upper low that will settle southward towards
New England by Saturday. After the surface low moves northeast
across the Great Lakes with the upper low, generally zonal flow
expected Thursday through Friday, with a weaker cold front and
northwest flow returning to the Great Lakes and local area on
Saturday. Highs generally expected to moderate from the upper
60s/low 70s Wednesday to the low/mid 70s by Friday, but may cool a
bit heading into the weekend. Lows will generally be in the 50s.
Best chances for rain during the period are Thursday as the low
moves through and again Friday night into Saturday with the weak
cold front. PoPs in the low/mid chance range look reasonable at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some remaining MVFR ceilings at YNG with lake enhanced cloud
cover in continued cold air advection which should exit after
20Z today. High pressure finally moves into northern Ohio this
evening/tonight where the skies will clear and winds go from
northwesterly to light and variable. Mid level clouds return
Sunday with a mid/upper level trough approaching form the north.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal small craft advisory conditions continue this afternoon
over the eastern part of the lake, as west winds around 15 kts and
waves up to 4 feet persist for a few more hours. Winds diminish
quickly this evening as weak high pressure builds over the lake.
Light/variable winds persist overnight into Sunday before a weak
trough pushes south of the lake Sunday night, with north winds
around 10 kts into Monday. Easterly winds will increase Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure lifts north into the Ohio Valley by
late Tuesday. This low will track northeast to the lake by
Wednesday, although winds and waves at this point look to be sub
small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...26
MARINE...03