190
FXUS61 KCLE 241838
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering lake effect rain showers and clouds will continue
across the snowbelt into Tuesday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front
Wednesday night through Thursday. There is a low risk for strong
to severe storms at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest satellite imagery reveals a large upper-level low
slowly rotating east across Quebec this afternoon, with
lingering weak surface troughing found over the Eastern Great
Lakes. Radar imagery reveals mainly isolated to scattered light
lake effect rain showers across portions of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon. Coverage is expected to
remain mainly isolated to scattered as low-level moisture
remains limited. Conditions will gradually improve throughout
the day Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west,
resulting in a wide array of temperatures ranging from the low
80s across Northwest Ohio, to the upper 60s or low 70s across
Northwest Pennsylvania.


KEY MESSAGE 2..
The next system will cross the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, extending a cold front across the region Thursday
night. Rain chances will first increase Wednesday night along
and west of the I-75 corridor as decaying showers and
thunderstorms begin to move east into the area, associated with
a pre-frontal shortwave. Still some uncertainty on the timing of
this feature, though the latest guidance favors redevelopment
of this activity Thursday afternoon, generally east of the I-71
corridor. There is some support for some stronger storms to
develop ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening in
this area, aided by a 25 to 30-knot SW 700 mb jet, though the
overall threat for a more organized severe weather threat
remains lows at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A broken band of lake-effect showers continues to be in the
vicinity of KERI. This band will continue to bring occasional
light rain to the terminal, and a brief period of heavier rain
and cigs/vsby restrictions to MVFR is possible through late
afternoon, so maintained a TEMPO group. Otherwise, VFR is
expected through the TAF period as high pressure and associated
drier air slowly build in, so expect cigs to continue to scatter
out. There could be some MVFR mist in NW and north central Ohio
late tonight where skies are faster to clear, so continued that
mention at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD, but confidence is lower on if
actual fog will develop.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake will gradually calm this evening and tonight as high
pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes. Expect WNW winds of
15-25 knots late this afternoon to decrease to 5-10 knots
tonight while becoming NW. This will allow the current 2 to 5
foot waves to subside to generally 1 foot or less by Tuesday
morning, but some 1 to 2 footers could hold on in the far
eastern basin through midday Tuesday. The Small Craft headlines
remain on track to expire from west to east this evening,
starting with the Islands to Avon Point at 21Z then Avon Point
to Ripley at 04Z. Winds and waves will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of expiring these earlier.

Light and variable winds Tuesday will turn S to SW at 5-10 knots
Tuesday night and Wednesday, increasing to 15-20 knots ahead of
a cold front Wednesday night. Winds will then turn WSW and
gradually decrease behind the front Thursday, becoming N at 5-10
knots by Thursday night through Saturday as another area of
high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ011-
     012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144-
     145.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas