998
FXUS61 KCLE 071123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
623 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and rain today is followed by another tonight, and
an area of low pressure moving through Sunday. These all set
the stage for a much colder period early next week with lake
effect snow likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The first of several cold fronts/low pressure systems in the 7 day
forecast comes through later this morning into the afternoon in the
form of convective showers with about a quarter to a third of an
inch of rainfall. This will be followed quickly by a secondary cold
front later tonight with considerably less rainfall. After a milder
day today with brief residence time in the warm sector, temperatures
will fall off modestly on Saturday in the wake of the second cold
front. These are precursors to a much colder pattern that will occur
beyond the near term portion of the forecast as a low pressure
system gets organized over the Mississippi Valley from an upper
trough axis dropping in from the northern plains region. This cold
front will sink just south of the southern CWA border by Saturday
evening with lingering low end POPs from leftover weak f-gen north
of the boundary for the eastern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure deepens while tracking eastward across northern Ohio
and into Pennsylvania Sunday morning A closed low over James Bay
moving southward into the Great Lakes and strong surface high
pressure moving southeastward into the high plains will all
contribute to a seasonally chilly airmass spilling into the Great
Lakes. Cold air advection ramps up Sunday night with 850mb
temperatures in the neighborhood of -10C now as far south as the
Ohio Valley. The relatively warm Lake Erie and
northerly/northwesterly winds coupled with the cold 850mb air
creates plenty of instability for pronounced lake effect
precipitation Sunday night through Monday night. With the generation
of low level cold air as the entire system continues to strengthen
through the period, should be all snow during that time frame
despite mid to upper 30s possible for high temperatures.
Accumulations expected in the favored snow belt regions of the CWA
to several inches, generally Lorain County east/southeast. Elsewhere
in the CWA, generally an inch or less expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
System will exit fairly quickly, and the middle of the week will see
a modest rebound from the high temperatures in the 30s from Monday
into the 40s to near 50 for the middle of the week. That said,
general upper level troughing will linger over the eastern third of
the CONUS as weak trough axes aloft pass through the CWA and keep
low end POPs going. Warmer ridging pattern will stay over the
intermountain west region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Currently there are VFR conditions across all terminals.
Across the region, there has been southerly wind at 5-15 knots with
gusts 20-25 knots. Showers will be moving in from the west as a cold
front begins to enter the region. Conditions will drop to non-VFR
with showers and wind gusts will be more consistent between 20-30
knots. Showers will begin at KTOL and KFDY after 13Z and will
exit the region and be through KYNG and KERI by 21/22Z.
Conditions will improve behind the front to VFR.

Winds will continue to gust through sunset this evening before
subsiding to 5-10 knots. Also, winds will start to veer to be out of
the west to northwest by 00Z on Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR in rain showers Saturday evening through the
weekend with low pressure moving through. Additional low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
non-VFR expected. Prolonged non-VFR conditions possible through
Tuesday evening with lake effect rain/snow showers across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions are expected over the next several days
with a series of low pressure systems moving through the region.
Currently, a Small Craft Advisory is active for all near shore zones
as winds will increase out of the south to 15-25 knots and waves
will build to 3-6 feet. Over the open waters, there is potential for
winds to increase to around 30 knots, primarily across the central
and eastern basins. Winds will become more westerly by Friday
evening and begin to subside behind frontal passage. The Small Craft
Advisory will continue until waves begin to subside early Saturday
morning. Winds will become light on Saturday until another low
pressure system enters the region on Sunday. Winds will increase
again with the system out of the north-northwest and another round
of Small Craft Advisories may be needed into early next week. Will
also need to keep an eye on the potential for gales late this weekend
and early next week especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23