400
FXUS61 KCLE 210035
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
835 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slowed down timing of showers and storms tonight with better
storm potential after daybreak tomorrow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty still remains in the potential for severe weather
tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected
tonight through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible, but there
continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

2) Below average temperatures arrive mid-week before gradually
returning to near normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure departs off the Mid-Atlantic Coast today, an
upper level trough will begin to dig south across the Great
Lakes region. This trough will support a deepening low centered
over Ontario and will aid in the development of upstream
convection in the region beginning today. Remnants of this
convection are expected to move into the far northwestern
counties in the CWA late tonight, where SPC currently has a Day
1 Marginal Risk (1 of 5). There remains uncertainty with how
organized this convection will remain given the lack of
instability during a non- diurnally favorable time, but some
gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible. By the time they move
east of the I-75 corridor, expecting them to be primary rain
showers and sub-severe, but cannot rule out a few isolated
rumbles of thunder.

On Tuesday, the associated cold front is expected to push east
across the area, acting as a focal point for additional convection
to develop. Confidence is high that there will be storms given the
synoptic support that this trough will provide, the tricky part is
the extent and magnitude of the severe risk over the area. In the
mid-levels, a vort max will push east ahead of the trough axis
providing mid-level support at the same time a strong (35-45 knot)
LLJ moves over the area. This coupled with dewpoints climbing into
the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday should allow for thunderstorms
development, especially east of I-75 where there is the greatest
potential for destabilization to occur by Tuesday afternoon.

The tricky part about the Tuesday forecast is a result of
uncertainty regarding how the decaying overnight/early morning
convection will impact destabilization across the area. If cloud
cover lingers longer than it is currently forecast to, then there
could be less instability that develops come the afternoon, limiting
the overall robustness of storms across the area and placing the
axis of severe storms further to the southeast. On the flip side, if
the cloud coverage clears quickly and instability quickly increases,
the region could see a shift in the severe potential to include
areas further west.

Opted to ride the middle ground with this forecast package with some
cloud coverage lingering, but instability still increasing to over
2000 J/kg given the strong WAA and moisture expected. With all of
that, SPC has maintained the Day 2 Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) for the
extreme far southeastern counties and a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for the
bulk of the remainder of the area with the exception of the Toledo
metro area. With this setup, the favored storm mode would be a large
MCC with the primary threat being damaging winds up to 70mph and
potentially a few embedded tornadoes. There is a non-zero chance for
isolated large hail. Will have to monitor overnight convection
trends to get a better grasp on the potential tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the robust cold front that moves east tomorrow, temperatures
are expected to cool quite a bit, falling well below average for
this time of year on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary,
850mb temperatures of 17-19C will push out of the region as 850mb
temperatures closer to 7-8C push south. This quick change in
temperatures will result in breezy conditions and a quick shift in
surface temperatures as well. Highs on Tuesday will climb into
the low to mid 80s, but will struggle to get out of the low to
mid 70s through Thursday with overnight lows expected to drop
into the 50s. This setup may also result in lake enhanced
showers impacting portions of the snowbelt given the very warm
lake temperatures. As high pressure returns late Thursday into
Friday, temperatures will slowly climb back to near normal for
this weekend with highs expected to be in the 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions are largely expected through the first half of
the TAF period for most sites. There is some MVFR haze with
residual wildfire smoke over Lake Erie that is extending into
KERI, but should end once the land breeze develops later this
evening. Winds will start southerly around 10 kts or less.

Beyond the initial VFR forecast, very low confidence
forecast in the evolution of shower and storm activity after 08z
Tuesday. So far this evening, shower and storm activity has
underperformed in the upper Midwest, favoring Iowa and Illinois
or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, leaving Wisconsin dry.
Previous guidance favored storm activity in this region
developing and moving southeast through the Great Lakes into the
airspace late tonight. However, activity has been slow to
develop and much of the night may remain dry and have pushed
back rain timing at the terminals. The question then turns to
when will storms develop with the prefrontal trough on Tuesday.
If there is no convection overnight, then storm potential may
increase earlier in the day before exiting the region and have
slightly moved up TS timing at all terminals. There could be
some additional showers and storms with the cold front toward
the end of the TAF period, but this is too low of confidence to
include in the TAF at this time. Winds with the trough on
Tuesday will be southwesterly with gusts to 25 kts and changing
to the west behind the feature.

Outlook...Residual non-VFR possible on Wednesday in rain
showers across the eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie are currently pleasant with winds around
5 knots out of the west with waves less than 1 foot. As a warm front
moves south to north across the region tonight, winds will increase
to 15-25 knots out of the southwest with stronger winds possible in
the open waters. Waves will also build in the near shore to 3-5 feet
with occasional waves around 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the entire near shore zones starting at 8AM Tuesday. The
zones to the west of the Islands will be in effect through 4PM,
while zones to the east through Ripley, NY will be in effect through
10PM Wednesday. This is due to strong northwesterly winds behind the
cold front late Tuesday that will keep winds and waves elevated.
Additionally, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for Lorain
eastward from 8AM Tuesday through 8PM Wednesday due to the potential
for high rip currents. Conditions will begin to improve late
Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds in. Winds will
be out of the north at 5-10 knots with waves less than 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through
     Wednesday evening for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through
     Wednesday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...23