474
FXUS61 KCLE 300525
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area on Wednesday before
a Canadian high pressure builds over the area late Thursday and
persists through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Currently, the area resides near a transition zone between a high
pressure system and upper level ridge to the south and a low
pressure and upper level trough to the north. This set-up has
allowed for a warm front to lift north of the area and temperatures
this afternoon expected to continue to warm into the low 90s with
heat indices into the upper 90s to low 100s. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect until 8PM tonight for Ohio. Given a poor environmental set
up, not expected any convection this afternoon/evening. A bit of
relief will be felt tonight as temperatures drop into the upper 60s
to low 70s with dry conditions expected to continue. Given weak
winds and enhanced low level moisture, there is a potential for fog
to develop inland, possibly becoming dense in some spots.

On Wednesday, a cold front associated with a low pressure over the
Northeast will sag south across the area. Ahead of this cold front,
temperatures will again surge into the upper 80s to low 90s in the
early afternoon hours with dewpoints in the 60s. This may result in
a few hours with heat indices in the upper 90s, but behind the cold
front temperatures should begin to cool. Given the very short period
of heat indices in the upper 90s, opted to hold off on any
additional heat headlines at this point, but will need to monitor
that potential with newer model guidance. Precipitation chances will
increase late Wednesday through Wednesday night as mid and upper
level support move over the area and produce a better environment
for showers and thunderstorms. Much of this precipitation appears to
be post-frontal given the timing of the better support, but cannot
rule out a few showers and thunderstorms across western counties
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SPC and WPC have the area
highlighted in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather and ERO.
Gusty winds will be the primary concern with any thunderstorms that
develop given the dry air expected aloft, but heavy rainfall is also
possible. Temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be cooler,
falling into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday as the
upper level trough pivots across the northeastern United States.
There is a non-zero chance that some of these showers/storm may be
severe with gusty winds the primary concern. Modeled shear values
are around 40-50 knots, but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg
which provides the potential, but doesn`t increase confidence in
anything occurring. WPC does have a sliver of the southern portion
of the area in a Day 3 ERO for heavy rainfall, although given the
departing nature of the system, expecting most of the heavy rainfall
to fall in the near term. Behind the departing system, high pressure
will build over the area and allow for conditions to dry out
Thursday night through Friday night. The aforementioned high
pressure will be building south from Canada, resulting in a much
cooler air mass settling over the area. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will only climb into the mid to upper 70s with sunny skies expected
to return Friday. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned Canadian high pressure will remain dominant
across the area through the weekend and into early next week. This
should allow for a very pleasant weekend with plenty of sunshine and
highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s. Given the drier
airmass, low dewpoints should allow for a reprieve from the humidity
as well. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50s to low 60s. On
Monday, a shortwave trough is modeled to push east towards the
region, potentially providing enough support for some scattered
showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence increases
in shower potential by Tuesday, but given a decent amount of model
divergence in the pattern and timing, opted to cap it at slight
chance PoP. Highs for the start of next week will be a bit warmer,
climbing into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Starting to see some patchy reduced visibility from fog and mist
as of 5z, though TAF sites remain VFR for now. Have a brief
window of MVFR to IFR conditions at most TAF sites early this
morning, primarily between 9-13z. Overall, fog/mist will be less
impactful than Monday and Tuesday mornings and only have an IFR
or lower group (FM or TEMPO) in at FDY, MFD, and YNG, with MVFR
at other sites. All will quickly return to VFR by 13z. VFR
conditions then generally persist through the TAF period. Pop-
up afternoon showers/storms are possible in the vicinity of TOL
and perhaps FDY. For now, included VCSH at TOL to suggest this
potential. Otherwise, potential for showers and perhaps some
thunder spreads in from the west tonight. Mainly after the end
of the TAFs, though began including VCSH or -SHRA at TOL, FDY,
and CLE (30 hour TAF at CLE).

Winds will shift more northerly today at 5-10kt. Winds shift
more northeasterly tonight at 5-10kt, perhaps a bit stronger at
TOL, FDY, CLE, and ERI towards and after 6z Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through Wednesday,
but an initial cold front crossing the lake in the morning will
turn winds more steadily N, with speeds increasing to 10-15
knots. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots late
Wednesday night and Thursday while turning NE as a secondary
cold front crosses the lake and strong Canadian high pressure
builds down from the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.
Small Craft headlines will likely be needed Thursday, along with
a moderate to high risk for rip currents. The NE winds will
likely stay at least 15-20 knots through Friday as the high
remains anchored to the north before decreasing to 5-15 knots
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday
     afternoon for OHZ009>011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for OHZ012.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through late
     Thursday night for OHZ089.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 5 PM EDT Friday for
     LEZ144>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to noon EDT Friday for
     LEZ147.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     LEZ148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas