747
FXUS61 KCLE 111955
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure dissolves tonight with high pressure
building from the northeast for Sunday into early next week.
Mainly dry most through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A vertically stacked low pressure system will continue its
southeastward drift into New York State this evening and tonight.
This system is characteristic of patchy low level moisture and dry
air above 750mb with also an inverted V signature in the boundary
layer. There is just enough layer RH at times for forced shower
activity, generally closer to the central area of low pressure. But
overall, POPs on the meager side or the far eastern zones largely
relegated to NW PA this evening and tonight. Patchy sprinkles not
out of the question further west, but will leave POPs out for now
over Lake Erie and along the lakeshore east of the islands. At the
same time, an expansive coastal low pressure system moving northward
will be slinging moisture into PA tonight into Sunday, keeping POPs
along the far eastern border of the CWA into early Sunday. Low/mid
level moisture will get pushed back westward from the coastal low
and its counterclockwise circulation with a weak inverted surface
trough in the vicinity of the lakeshore. Going to downplay the POPs
here as well, but slights may need to come into play for Sunday in
the next forecast as there will be some vertical cloud development
evident during the afternoon hours, lingering into the Sunday night
time frame. Again, the general story here ultimately is not much
precipitation expected out of this for the next 36 hours. Slightly
above normal temperatures Sunday with upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low pressure system will linger off the mid Atlantic
coast while high pressure builds in from the northeast and upper
level ridging builds in from the Texas Gulf Coast. An upper level
low all the way north in southern Hudson Bay tracking west to east
will bring a cold front through the region Tuesday. Despite the
distance from the main energy of this system, this cold front should
sweep through fairly easily, fairly dry, and with an airmass
changing high pressure system building in its wake. Upper 60s to mid
70s Monday and Tuesday become upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Canadian high pressure system will slowly shift eastward into
the end of the week, allowing for return flow, upper level ridging
once again, and a warm up heading into the weekend. Temperatures
back to slightly above normal values by Saturday. No significant
precipitation expected in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
In the mid/upper-levels, cyclonic NW`erly to N`erly flow
persists over our region as a low near CYYZ at 17:20Z/Sat
drifts ESE`ward to near KROC by 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a
trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes region and Upper OH
Valley through 18Z/Sun and the embedded low dissipates over
southern ON by 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds vary between
NW`erly and NE`erly around 5 to 10 knots through ~00Z/Sun.
Thereafter, winds are expected to become light and variable for
a time. On Sunday morning, winds should become NE`erly to
SE`erly around 5 to 10 knots, especially after 12Z, and persist
through 18Z/Sun.

Odds favor VFR and dry weather through the TAF period. Scattered
diurnal cumuliform clouds and scattered lake-effect stratocumuli
downwind of Lake Erie affect northern OH and NW PA through
~23Z/Sat. Additional isolated to scattered diurnal cumuliform
clouds are expected after ~14Z/Sun. All of these cumuliform
clouds should have bases near 4kft AGL.

Outlook...Current odds favor dry weather and VFR through this
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds around 5 to 10 knots today become mainly NE`erly to
E`erly around 5 to 15 knots tonight as a residual trough lingers
over Lake Erie and extends from a deepening coastal low that should
continue to wobble NNE`ward offshore the Carolinas. Waves of 3 feet
or less are expected. On Sunday through Monday, a ridge should
extend from the Canadian Maritimes to Lake Erie. NE`erly to ESE`erly
winds freshen to around 10 to 20 knots on Sunday through much of
Sunday evening as the aforementioned ridge interacts with the potent
coastal low that should move farther NNE`ward to Atlantic waters
east of the Delmarva Peninsula and well south of Long Island. Waves
build to as large as 3 to 6 feet in open U.S. waters, but remain 3
feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters given forecast fetch. Late
Sunday evening through nightfall Monday evening, mainly NE`erly to
E`erly winds should ease to around 5 to 15 knots as the
aforementioned ridge weakens while moving little, and the
aforementioned coastal low moves little and begins to weaken
notably. Waves subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak Monday.

NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should back to N`erly
to NW`erly over Lake Erie Monday night. Simultaneously, a
reinforcing ridge should build from the Canadian Prairies as the
coastal low drifts generally E`ward over the Atlantic and becomes
located farther offshore the Delmarva Peninsula. Waves remain 3 feet
or less.

On Tuesday through this Thursday, winds should vary between
NW`erly and NE`erly as the reinforcing ridge continues to affect
Lake Erie and the core of the ridge moves from the Canadian Prairies
toward James Bay and vicinity. These winds will be mainly 5 to 15
knots in magnitude, but should flirt with 20 knots at times Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Waves are forecast to be mainly 3
feet or less, but should be as large as 4 to 5 feet at times Tuesday
night through Wednesday night, especially east of The Islands.
Forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of a Small
Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka