161
FXUS61 KCLE 041150
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the region today and
Saturday. Low pressure will track northeast through the Upper Great
Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, pulling a cold front south across
the area through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge extends across the Upper Midwest today and will
build east overhead on Saturday. Much of the area will experience
sunny skies for the Independence Day Holiday. A decent spread in
temperatures can be expected from west to east with highs near 90 in
NW Ohio and 80 in NW Pennsylvania. A concern for a few thunderstorms
does develop in NW Ohio by late afternoon and early evening. ML CAPE
gradient of 500-1500 J/kg will be over SE Michigan this afternoon.
Low level convergence from southwesterly return flow and lake breeze
boundaries may be sufficient to kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorm activity upstream. This also aligns with an eastward
advancing theta-e gradient. Northwesterly flow aloft may direct
activity into NW Ohio late this afternoon into this evening and have
raised pops to 30-50 percent towards Toledo with decreasing chances
south along the I-75 corridor. Several of the CAMs have also trended
upward with coverage of showers and thunderstorms in SE Michigan and
NW Ohio.

Activity is expected to decrease towards sunset. Did continue with a
20 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm eastward across Lake
Erie and sneaking into areas downwind of the lake late tonight into
Saturday morning as the moisture advection continues eastward.
Overall better forcing is likely to be farther north across Lake
Huron and into Canada.

For Saturday, a lake breeze is likely to develop off eastern Lake
Erie and may serve as a focus for a few stray showers or
thunderstorms. The 00Z/04 run of the 3km NAM may be a bit
overdone with coverage of storms as it indicates dewpoints in
the low 70s which are several degrees too high. With that said,
surface based CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg are possible out
ahead of an expanding capping inversion that will strengthen
over western portions of the area. Have included 20-40 percent
pops across the snowbelt areas and south towards Meadville and
Warren during the afternoon. The heat continues to expand
eastward with portions of the area exceeding 90 degrees and heat
index values starting to creep back up into the mid and upper
90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will be overhead at the start of the period
then shift to the East Coast. Sunday is expected to be the hottest
day as temperatures in most areas reach or exceed 90 degrees and
dewpoints are creeping back up. Low pressure will track east across
the Upper Great Lakes ahead of a shortwave trough tracking into the
region. The pre-frontal trough will reach NW Ohio during the
afternoon and could start to see thunderstorms developing. There are
some timing differences between the models that will need to be
worked out but have chance pops expanding east to about the I-71
corridor during the afternoon. With this boundary settling into the
area Sunday night, could see some continued shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage on
Monday with the slow moving front draped overhead. PW values will be
near 2 inches and locally heavy rain will be expected with
thunderstorms, especially if training along the boundary occurs. A
second and stronger shortwave trough looks to finally push the front
south of the area on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be overhead behind the front on Tuesday.
Conditions should be more comfortable with temperatures dropping
back to near normal values and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Most
of the area can expect dry conditions with stable air. The pattern
is expected to become more active again towards the middle of next
week with a broad trough in place across eastern Canada and
shortwave energy moving through the Ohio Valley. The shortwaves will
be hard to time and adjustments to pops are likely. Overall a
return to scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely for
mid-week with temperatures hovering near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure moving through the region will allow for mainly
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Conditions are starting
with just some minor high clouds and and residual 5-6 kft clouds
in Northeast Ohio. The coverage of these lower 5-6 kft clouds
should expand with diurnal heating today. The main weather
concern will be the evolution of a storm complex over Wisconsin
this morning. The trajectory of this system is southeast and
should avoid the airspace. However, additional storm development
is starting in Southwest Lower Michigan this morning and
additional storms may develop across the state through the day.
Some of these may dip south across the border into Ohio and may
impact KTOL this afternoon/evening and have retained a PROB30
group for TS and MVFR there. Do not expect TS to attempt to
reach any other terminals this evening. The remnants of these
storms may move over the Lake Erie region overnight and should
mainly be a cloud/ceiling issue. But there is a non-zero chance
for some rain and maybe some thunder to persist east, but too
low of confidence to put into any TAFs at this time. Winds will
start generally south to southeast before flipping to a
northerly component with the high pressure moving through the
eastern half of the area. Winds will flip back to the south to
southeast as high pressure moves east of the area and a warm
front lifts north through the airspace.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with iso/sct showers and storms
during the afternoon/evening hours daily through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of Lake Erie this morning will slide southeast
today, allowing for east to northeast winds of 5-10 kts today. As
the surface high passes east of the area, a warm front will extend
across the lake tonight and flow will shift to the southeast 5-10
kts. The lake will be in the warm, return flow ahead of the next
system and southwest flow will be favored on the lake for Saturday
and Sunday. The pressure gradient could be strong enough for some 15
kt winds during the first half of Sunday. The cold front of this
system will cross the lake on Sunday night and flow will shift to
the west then northwest for Monday. Onshore flow of 10 kts or less
will remain for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds from the
north. In summary, conditions on Lake Erie should be benign with
winds 15 kts or less and waves generally 2 ft or less and marine
headlines are not expected through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic