501
FXUS61 KCLE 122306
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and crosses the
area on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in for Monday into
Tuesday. A warm front lifts northeast across the region by
Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Shower and storm potential ahead of a cold front that will cross on
Sunday is the main focus for the near term period. We are also
dealing with hot and humid conditions this afternoon ahead of and
outside of any showers and storms, with temperatures in the lower
90s combining with dew points near or just above 70 to push peak
heat index values into the mid to upper 90s.

An old gravity wave is pushing across the I-75 corridor during the 1
PM hour and has sparked a loosely organized line of thunderstorms.
There is an outflow boundary farther to the west, with a subtle wind
shift and notable airmass change, nearing the IN/OH border which may
act as a second trigger in Northwest OH a later this afternoon.
Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
developing ahead of this feature across central OH and lifting
northeast. The line currently evolving across Northwest OH will
likely progress east through early this evening. With weak shear and
forcing, organization and intensity may eventually decrease with
time if outflow starts running too far out ahead of the updrafts.
The more isolated activity develop ahead of this feature will likely
continue to work northeast, with an eventual decrease in intensity
as it starts pushing into PA. Will also watch for renewed activity
to develop over eastern Indiana/far Northwest OH, which would carry
east-northwest into our Northwest OH counties into this evening.
This may be aided by a shortwave evident over IL on satellite and
water vapor this afternoon, adding a bit of forcing this evening
across Northwest OH. The long story short is that the line currently
pushing across the I-75 corridor in the 1 PM hour and activity
lifting out of Central OH ahead of it will be the main feature
to watch this afternoon/early evening. We`ll also watch for
additional activity to develop and spread into Northwest OH from
the west/southwest into this evening, but with somewhat lower
confidence given ongoing convection working over the airmass.
POPs are highest across Northwest and North Central OH through
this evening, with some windows of likely (60-70%) wording. POPs
gradually decrease to the east but are mentioned in the
forecast everywhere with 30-50% wording everywhere except for
eastern portions of Erie/Crawford PA.

A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather this afternoon and
evening remains from the Storm Prediction Center from roughly
Cleveland to Mt Vernon points west, with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
east of there including all but eastern Erie and Crawford Co`s in
PA. The main concern today will be damaging winds from microbursts,
owing to weak forcing/shear and poor mid-level lapse rates, offset
by moderate CAPE (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE), well-mixed low-levels,
fairly high PWATs, and decent DCAPE (800-1100 J/KG). Stronger pulse
cells, or clusters that are associated with more organized cold
pools, will be watched for this potential. Localized rain amounts of
a quick 1-2" may cause isolated minor flooding in prone areas.

Activity is expected to largely wane after sunset, though the cold
front sagging in from the northwest and weak shortwave moving
through the southern Great Lakes could keep some isolated activity
going along the front overnight, especially as it moves over the
warm waters of Lake Erie during the pre-dawn. Lows tonight will
generally be in the low to mid 70s.

The cold front continues progressing through on Sunday. This looks
like a loosely organized frontal zone, with a couple of wind shifts
and airmass changes. One such wind shift/airmass change will push
southeast out of Northwest OH and off of Lake Erie in the morning
and exit to our southeast during the early afternoon. This initial
boundary may spark showers/storms over and downwind of Lake Erie
early Sunday that gradually push inland through early afternoon,
with coverage likely increasing across far eastern OH and inland
Northwest PA before exiting. A secondary wind shift and airmass
change will drop in from the northwest during the afternoon and exit
during the evening, likely sparking at least isolated shower/storm
development as it does so. Overall large scale forcing will be
minimal on Sunday outside of the loose frontal boundary, with weak
subsidence actually in place behind tonight`s shortwave that will be
departing to our east on Sunday. Still hang on to POPs of some sort
outside of the Toledo area on Sunday, though did lower them some
from prior forecasts and limited likely (60-70%) wording to extreme
eastern OH and interior Northwest PA, with 50% or lower farther
west. Concern for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall on
Sunday is minimal at this point. Highs on Sunday will generally
reach the low to mid 80s, with dew points hanging in the upper 60s
and lower 70s until late day or evening.

Isolated showers/storms may take until late Sunday evening to
completely exit the Mt Vernon-Youngstown corridor, though a mainly
dry night is otherwise expected. Lows will get into the 60s with dew
points cooling several degrees as well. Some patchy valley fog could
develop by early Monday as weak high pressure starts nosing in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A generally quiet Monday and Tuesday are expected with a decent
amount of sunshine. Weak high pressure will slide across the
southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday as
our front stalls south of the Ohio River. There may be just enough
lingering moisture for weak CAPE to develop Monday afternoon,
leading to a small pop-up shower/storm risk. Odds of rain in any
given location are <20% so no mentionable POPs, but may need to
monitor the Central Highlands region for a stray shower or storm
Monday afternoon. Moisture begins returning on Tuesday, which should
allow for some CAPE to develop during the afternoon, particularly
across our southwestern counties. Forcing remains minimal as heights
rise aloft, so kept POPs in the 10-20% range which won`t get a
forecast mention yet on "day 3". It will be warm Monday and Tuesday
with highs on Monday generally in the mid-upper 80s with highs
Tuesday dialing up a bit more, ranging from the mid 80s to around
90. Overnight lows should mainly dip into the 60s Monday night, with
slightly warmer lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday
night. Dew points will be more pleasant on Monday, generally in the
low to mid 60s. Moisture increases slightly on Tuesday, though we
should hold of the 70+ degree stuff for one more day...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Relatively unsettled weather is expected for the second half of the
work week. Ridging will push into the area Tuesday into Wednesday
before getting shunned to the south and southeast through the end of
the week as troughing gradually builds into the upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes. A warm front will lift across the area late
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a cold front approaching on
Thursday and likely crossing Thursday night or Friday. High pressure
may try briefly sliding through on Saturday, though by then we`re in
a faster/more zonal pattern and model agreement isn`t great, so
confidence in specifics is low. Have chances for showers/storms on
Wednesday, increasing to likely wording Thursday afternoon as the
front approaches. POPs linger into Friday as the front pushes
through. Saturday is currently favored to be rain-free across much
of the area, though confidence isn`t extremely high yet. It will
turn very muggy starting Wednesday, with dew points likely breaching
70F on Wednesday and staying near or above 70F until the front
crosses. Highs will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and
Thursday, modulated by timing and coverage of any showers/storms. A
return to more normal temperatures and lower humidity is expected
behind the front into the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The main aviation message for this TAF update will be VFR
conditions. There are some widely scattered showers and storms
out there this evening which should slowly come to an end by
03z. We have mentioned VCTS for MFD and FDY until about 03z.
After this evening convection ends, the rest of the period
should be mainly VFR. There could be some light MVFR fog of 5sm
between 09z and 12z at FDY, MFD, and TOL or areas that saw
rainfall today. Widely scattered convection could be possible
again on Sunday afternoon around MFD, CAK, YNG, and ERI. Due to
uncertainty of timing and coverage, we have left it out of the
TAF forecast at this time. Winds will be generally from the
south or southwest 4 to 9 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR with patchy fog or low ceilings will be
possible Sunday night and Monday night, especially for inland
areas away from Lake Erie. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are once again expected Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are generally expected
to be generally 10 knots or less into mid-next week. Winds may
briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift towards the west
tonight into Sunday as a cold front moves east across the lake. This
could usher in some 2-footers across the central and eastern basin
of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorm chances
will return Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Kahn