860
FXUS61 KCLE 051114
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
714 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the East Coast will continue to influence the
local area today. A cold front will settle southeast across the area
Sunday night into Monday followed by high pressure building in for
Tuesday. An active weather pattern will return for the second
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds overhead today with the heat
continuing to expand across the area. Most locations will
experience mostly sunny skies with high temperatures forecast to
reach the upper 80s in NW Pennsylvania to low 90s in NW Ohio.
Heat index values will be in the mid 90s at times in portions of
NW and North Central Ohio. Surface high pressure is located
along the East Coast and generally light wind conditions will
allow for a lake breeze to develop across NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania. This will keep temperatures just a couple degrees
cooler and convergence along this boundary may serve to kick off
a few showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon. ML CAPE
values look to be in the 350-500 J/kg range. Although coverage
of showers varies on the CAMs, this can be explained by a wide
range in model dewpoints, ranging from the low 70s on the 3km
NAM to near 60 on the HRRR which is basically dry. Forecast
dewpoints are in the mid 60s and have an area with 20-40 percent
pops focused east of Cleveland into NW Pennsylvania and perhaps
as far south as Warren, mainly between 2-6 PM. Isolated to
scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected in this
area.

Hot conditions continue on Sunday, with more locations seeing heat
index values creeping into the mid and upper 90s. A little more of a
breeze will be felt as an elongated trough of weak low pressure
moves into the Central Great Lakes, reaching NW Ohio late in
the day. This will be accompanied by increasing instability from
west to east and returning chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Chances will generally be focused west of I-71
late in the day on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave driving the above mentioned trough will weaken to our
north on Sunday night and models have slowed down the eastward
progression of the front. Muggy conditions expected Sunday night
with some moisture pooling along this boundary. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage through the day on
Monday as the next shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes Region
and pushes this cold front east across the area. The degree of cloud
cover may limit instability along the front to some extent on Monday
with only modest CAPE values expected. With that said, thunderstorms
are expected and may produce locally heavy rain and also a low end
threat of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with bulk shear
values of 25-30 knots, especially in the east. PW values are
around 2 inches and will need to monitor storms for training and
the potential for localized flooding.

The front will tend to be south of the area on Tuesday and most
areas will be dry. Some residual instability may linger in the south
with dewpoints still in the upper 60s so will hold onto an isolated
pop in the southern counties. Overall temperatures will be more
comfortable with highs dropping back into the 80s and a general
decrease in humidity with high pressure building in from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern returns for the long term forecast with
a broad trough setting up over eastern Canada and an active storm
track somewhere in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. There is
uncertainty in timing and location of showers and thunderstorms this
far out but each afternoon with at least have a chance for now.
Summer-like heat and humidity are expected to continue until we
can push this boundary farther to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Some MVFR is roaming across the airspace this morning with a
combination of haze or fog with help from a humid air mass and
poor air quality. The MVFR seems to be missing the TAF sites,
but a brief dip to MVFR at KTOL, where there was nearby rain
last night will be possible over the next hour. Otherwise, VFR
will be the theme for the day with generally southwest flow
across the region and some afternoon patchy cumulus around 5-6
kft. A lake boundary across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA may
spark some iso/sct showers and storms this afternoon and have a
PROB30 mention at KYNG for TS and MVFR conditions, but
confidence in an impact to a terminal with convection this
afternoon remains low. Winds will back to the south tonight and
calm across the region and areas that see rain this afternoon
could be favored for some non-VFR visibility during the pre-dawn
hours on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms daily, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake will be in the warm, return flow today and Sunday, as
a warm front exits to the north and the next system will take
its time to approach the region later on Sunday. Southwest winds
today should be generally 10 kts or less, but the pressure
gradient could be strong enough for some 15 kt winds during the
first half of Sunday. The cold front will approach the lake
later on Sunday, crossing the basin by Monday afternoon. Winds
will shift to the west on Sunday night then northwest for Monday
with this feature. The front will stall out south of the lake
for Tuesday and high pressure will pass to the north. Winds
should favor a northerly flow on Tuesday, but a weak enough
pressure gradient may allow for a lake breeze to develop and
flow over the lake may become variable. The stalled front will
slowly lift north later in the week and winds may try to favor
an offshore direction again. However, there may be some
variability given lake breeze potential. At this time, no marine
headlines are expected for Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014-
     020>022-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic