379
FXUS61 KCLE 210601
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
201 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...06Z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in Friday and Saturday. A strong cold
front comes through Saturday night. Cooler than normal
conditions with lake effect showers expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A meso-low circulation has moved in off Lake Erie bringing good
coverage of light rain showers and drizzle. Updated the forecast
to increase pops with this southwestward moving feature for this
evening. Best convergence downwind of Lake Erie will be focused
from Erie and Sandusky Counties southwest towards Hancock County
overnight and will continue with a low pop for those areas and
extending east along the lakeshore given the northeast cyclonic
flow off the lake.

Previous discussion...Cold front has cleared the region and
continue to be socked in with low level clouds that are slow to
lift and erode southward through southern Michigan. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Erin, making its northward track in the Atlantic, will
stay well away from our area, but will play a role in
tightening the pressure gradient over the southern Great Lakes.
This will bring modest wind increases out of the northeast
tonight through Thursday afternoon before easing again later
Thursday into Thursday evening. This will be due to the distance
between our area and the tropical system increases again as it
tracks northeastward while picking up forward speed. Mid and
upper levels will clear out Thursday into Thursday night while
enough low level moisture lingers away form the lakeshore and
the prevailing northeasterly flow for scattered-broken clouds,
but the forecast is largely dry beyond tonight. Temperatures
remain slightly cool for this type of northeasterly wind with
highs in the 70s again on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A deep, closed upper level low will dive southeastward through the
Canadian prairies into the end of the week/weekend with an
associated low pressure system at the surface. A lingering surface
trough west of the Appalachians renews POPs for the eastern CWA
Saturday while the cold front from the aforementioned system
approaches from the northwest. High pressure that will have resided
briefly over the southern Great Lakes will get squeezed out of the
region. This will be a fairly strong cold front coming through,
likely in the Saturday night time frame that will dictate more early
fall type weather for the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upon frontal passage, will be entering an environment with cold
air advection across the Great Lakes with a Canadian airmass
spilling into the region, and 850mb temperatures down well into
the single digits. Northerly winds and likely lake effect
showers due to the high difference between the 850mb
temperatures and the lake water surface temperatures will be the
story for early next week. Will not come out of the 60s for
portions of the eastern CWA as a result, low to mid 70s westward
into northwest Ohio.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The main forecast concerns for our local aviation weather and
this overnight TAF update will be with the low end MVFR to IFR
ceilings from the lake effect clouds from Lake Erie. A rather
unusual and fall like weather pattern continues to bring
cooler northeast flow over the warm lake and that end result has
kept around the stubborn broken to overcast ceilings at mostly
in the MVFR category with periods locally IFR conditions as well
especially for TAF sites closer to the lakeshore and for the
locations with slightly higher terrain like MFD and CAK. The
overall forecast shows ceilings staying as low end MVFR to IFR
through the rest of the overnight and lingering through most of
the morning hours. There will be gradually improvement for all
TAF sites to lift into the upper end of MVFR for ceilings
towards late morning after 15z through mid to late afternoon.
Expectations are that ceilings will continue to slowly lift over
3500 feet and VFR by late afternoon into the early Thursday
evening with most locations seeing cloud cover scattering out
by the end of this TAF period after 00z.

The other aviation weather impact to mention is regarding some
light scattered lake effect showers or misty type rain that is
ongoing and will continue through sunrise this morning for most
TAF sites closer to the lakeshore. We have TEMPO groups through
12z with 3sm to 6sm BR mist and/or light rain showers that will
briefly bring some localize visibility reductions. We anticipate
most of the scattered light lake effect showers will gradually
decrease in coverage later this morning. There may be some
isolated lake effect rain showers lingering around into the
afternoon. We will take another look at possible impacts if any
with the next TAF update. Winds will be from the north and
northeast 5 to 12 knots during most of this time period with
occasional gusts 20 to 25 knots possible for TAF sites closer to
the lakeshore for this rest of this morning into the afternoon.
The gusts will go away by this evening and winds will be 7
knots of less late Thursday evening and overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible this Saturday afternoon through
Monday due to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement are in effect
from 6 PM today until 11 PM Thursday from Reno Beach to
Conneaut and from 6 PM today to 8 PM EDT Thursday from Conneaut
to Ripley. A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Thursday as a
ridge attempts to build from the northwestern Great Lakes. The
interaction between the trough and ridge will allow N`erly to
NE`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to freshen to 15 to 20
knots by sunset this evening and waves will build to as large as
2 to 4 feet. Later this evening through about midday Thursday,
mainly NE`erly winds around 15 to 22 knots and waves as large as
3 to 6 feet are expected. During Thursday afternoon through
evening, NE`erly winds ease gradually to 10 to 15 knots and
waves subside gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight Friday
morning.

On Friday through Saturday, the ridge affects Lake Erie as the
ridge`s core moves from the northwestern Great Lakes toward the
New England to Mid-Atlantic seaboard. NE`erly to E`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots early Friday morning become variable around
5 to 10 knots during the daylight hours of Friday and then
primarily S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots Friday night
through Saturday as waves remain 3 feet or less. A cold front
sweeps E`ward across Lake Erie Saturday night and causes SW`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W`erly as waves remain 3
feet or less. Behind the front, a trough lingers over Lake Erie
through Monday. Winds should vary between SW`erly and NW`erly
around 5 to 15 knots and waves should remain 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...10/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77