501
FXUS62 KCHS 111403
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1003 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through Friday. A cold front could
move through late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad ridging expected today with dry air overspreading the area
in the wake of a surface low departing the NC coast. Low-level
downslope wind component will enhance warming today with highs
in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies.

Tonight: Dry conditions will prevail across the area, with sfc high
pressure becoming centered across Florida and weak mid-lvl ridging
persisting for much of the night. Winds should decouple early,
leading to light and variable sfc winds under clear skies for a bulk
of the night. Conditions will become quite favorable for radiational
cooling, supporting low temps in the mid-upper 40s, except near the
coast where temps should only dip into the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging will build into the upper levels while high pressure
dominates at the surface on Wednesday. A mid-level shortwave trough
will swing through the southeastern states on Thursday, however it
will be in a weakening state. Ridging aloft will return on Friday.
Quiet weather is expected through the short term period, with
plentiful sunshine on Wednesday yielding temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s. Cloud cover will increase on Thursday associated with the
upper level disturbance, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler
than on Wednesday. Isolated showers could approach far inland
southeastern GA late Thursday, however most locations will remain
rain-free. Friday will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures
returning to the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the synoptic pattern on Saturday,
supporting above normal temperatures. A potent upper level trough
will dig and deepen over the Deep South on Saturday, approaching the
forecast area on Sunday. At the surface a cold front will push
through the region on Sunday. Models continue to be in agreement
that the region will likely see rainfall Saturday night/Sunday
associated with this front. Some thunderstorms are also possible,
with a non-zero severe threat as there is the potential for decent
shear and some instability in the area. Temperatures will return to
near normal post FROPA, gradually warming into Tuesday as high
pressure returns.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z
Wednesday. West/northeast winds should remain around 10 kt today,
the become light/calm shortly after 00Z tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through the end of the
week. Flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday associated with a passing cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions steadily improving over the waters. Small Craft
Advisory dropped off at 10a for the nearshore waters S of Edisto
Beach and will continue until 2p for Charleston nearshore and GA
offshore due to continued 25 kt gusts and some 6 ft seas. Quiet
conditions are expected across all waters tonight with high
pressure prevailing across the region. WSW winds should remain
around 10 kt or less with seas no larger than 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will dominate over the
marine waters through the end of the week and into the first part of
the weekend. Through Friday winds will average around 10 knots with
seas generally 2 to 3 ft. A cold front will push through the region
Saturday night/Sunday, with winds and seas surging ahead of the
system. Southerly winds on Saturday and Saturday night will surge to
15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas building to 5 to 6 ft
in the nearshore waters and 7 to 8 ft in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA
waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed starting around
Saturday afternoon for all waters, including the Charleston Harbor.
Winds and seas will remain elevated through Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JRL
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/DPB
MARINE...CPM/DPB