025
FXUS62 KCHS 101406
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
906 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through tonight, bringing much
colder conditions to the area this week. High pressure will
build into the region through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front has pushed off into our near/offshore Atlantic
waters, with cold-air advection (CAA) commencing on the backside as
a surface high pressure builds down into the southeast. Expect
breezy winds to develop throughout the rest of the overnight hours
due to the CAA along with the increased surface pressure gradient.
This will result in northwest winds sustained 10 to 15 mph, with
gusts into the mid 20s. While the cold temperatures will continue to
pour into the region throughout the day, overnight lows this morning
look to stay in the mid/upper 30s for inland areas and up into the
lower/mid 40s along the coast. Ample sunshine this morning and
afternoon will counteract the CAA, allowing for temperatures to rise
into the lower to mid 50s across the area. However, winds will rise
further becoming sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph by
the late afternoon hours, resulting in a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake
Moultrie from the afternoon hours into the early Tuesday morning.

Peak cold-air advection occurs during the evening hours, which will
rapidly bring temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s prior to
midnight, and further down into the mid 20s inland and lower 30s
along the coast by daybreak. These low temperatures will challenge
the record low temperatures at all three climate sites (see Climate
section for more details,) with an area-wide Freeze Warning in
affect. Winds will be strongest during the evening, weakening into
the overnight period, but will still be breezy enough to result in
minimum wind chills of 18 to 20 degrees F for inland southeast
Georgia and portions of inland southeast South Carolina. Have thus
issued a cold weather advisory given the criteria of 20 degrees F,
so be sure to bundle up and wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and
gloves when heading out Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: Behind a departing cold front, strong CAA continues to
dominate much of the forecast on Tuesday as temperatures struggle to
reach into the low 50s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the
entire forecast area as confidence remains high in a widespread
freeze occurring Monday night until Tuesday morning (~9AM).
Additionally, due to wind chill values in the upper teens to low 20s
across counties west of I-95, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued beginning at midnight on Tuesday until early Tuesday morning
(~8AM). This will cause for temperatures to battle for record low
maximum temperatures on Tuesday at all three climate sites - see
Climate section for more details. Otherwise, breezy northwesterly
winds will slowly diminish throughout the morning, and winds will
range from 5 to 10 mph by the afternoon. Clear skies and relatively
calm winds will allow for another chilly night with temperatures
dropping into the upper 20s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along
the coastline.

Wednesday and Thursday: A mid-level trough will push off the
coastline on Wednesday and allow for zonal wind flow aloft to take
over on Wednesday and Thursday. Heights should slowly rise as the
center of a high pressure sits over the Southeast. In response,
temperatures should warm back up into the mid to upper 60s on
Wednesday and upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday. A rain-free forecast
has been maintained as the atmosphere remains dry with PWATs near
and below half an inch. Model guidance continues to indicate that a
dry, cold front will push across the region on Thursday morning,
but not much impact with this besides a subtle wind shift. Another
chilly couple of nights look to be in-store for Wednesday and
Thursday with clear skies overhead, however it looks like
temperatures will remain above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As zonal flow dominates aloft and high pressure sits at the surface,
expect a quiet and dry forecast through the period. Some
deterministic models suggests another system will shift towards the
region on Sunday with showers and iso. thunderstorms possible,
however uncertainty remains high as the forecast will likely change
in the next coming days. Temperatures will return to near normal on
Thursday and are forecast to remain near normal into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10.12Z TAFS - VFR throughout the period. Northwest winds will remain
fairly steady sustained 10 to 15 mph, with gusts into the mid 20s
into the early afternoon hours. This afternoon, winds will rise
further becoming sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph by
the late afternoon hours, with weakening winds during the overnight
period into Tuesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quick forecast update to increase wind gusts in the Charleston
Harbor to match current observations. The Small Craft Advisory
scheduled to go into effect this afternoon has been moved up and
is in effect now, as gusts are around 25 knots in the Charleston
Harbor.

Today and tonight: Breezy northwest winds will be developing
overnight and continuing into the morning hours, gusting 25 to 30
knots, outside of the Charleston Harbor which will see gusts from
the upper teens into the lower 20s. Will likely see a brief
weakening of the winds during peak solar heating, but they will
again strengthen as the sun lowers and additional cold-air advection
pushes across the area. The previously issued Gale Watch has been
upgraded to a Gale Warning for all near and offshore zones, as
northwest winds will be sustained 25 to 35 knots with wind gusts of
35 to 40 knots expected. For the Charleston Harbor, a Small Craft
Advisory remains in place starting this afternoon into the evening
hours, for wind gusts 30 knots. Seas are forecast to build
throughout the day, peaking tonight around 4 to 6 ft in the
nearshore waters and 7 to 9 ft in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters.

Tuesday through Friday: In the wake of a strong cold front, gusty
northwesterly winds will continue across the marine zones as high
pressure builds into the region. Expect wind speeds to diminish
throughout the morning on Tuesday, and Gale Warnings to drop off for
all marine zones by Tuesday afternoon. Afterwards, high pressure
will dominate the local waters and allow for quite marine conditions
into the weekend. Seas will taper back on Tuesday, and will range 1
to 3 ft through the majority of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some fire weather concerns exist for both today and Tuesday as
RH values drop to around 30% today and 25% on Tuesday.
Additionally, NW wind gusts on Monday are forecast to be around
20 to 25 mph, with gusts to around 15 mph on Tuesday. The
rainfall we saw earlier this evening will likely help alleviate
additional concerns, with partners indicating fuels are not dry
enough for an elevated fire danger at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Monday night`s freeze will not be the earliest on record for all
three climate sites. Below are the records for informational
purposes.

KCHS: October 25, 1937
KCXM: November 3, 1954
KSAV: October 27, 1962

Upcoming Record Low Temperatures:

November 11 (Tuesday):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968

November 12 (Wednesday):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011

Upcoming Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

November 10 (Monday):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968

November 11 (Tuesday):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST
     Tuesday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-137-138.
SC...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST
     Tuesday for SCZ040-042>044-047.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ350-
     352-374.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ350.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ354.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ354.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Tuesday for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...APT
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...APT/Dennis
MARINE...APT/CPM/Dennis