952
FXUS62 KCHS 192351
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
751 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger across the region into early next
week. A front will approach the region by the middle of next
week then become stationary over or near the area through late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Update: Forecast remains on track. Did expand the coverage of the
expected shallow ground fog that we`ve been seeing the past few
mornings based on the latest model runs, though it continues to look
patchy with no major impacts expected. The previous discussion below
remains valid.

Deep-layered high pressure will remain across the Southeast
U.S. tonight. High clouds will be on the increase through the
night. The cooler side of guidance was still preferred given
guidance has been running a tad too warm for the past few
nights. Similar to this morning, some shallow ground fog could
develop away from the coast just before daybreak. No major
impacts are expected. Lows will range from the mid-upper 50s
inland to the upper 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The center of a H5 590DM ridge will slowly drift from the FL/GA
line on Sunday to over the Bahamas Islands by Tuesday. At the
sfc, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
continue to ridge across the region through the short term
period. This pattern will keep the forecast dry under deep dry
air with a strong subsidence inversion each day. High
temperatures are forecast to generally range between 85 to 90
degrees each afternoon away from the coast. Coastal temperatures
along the beaches expected to peak around 80 degrees. The
warmest day is expected on Tuesday as a cold front remains just
north and west of the region. Low temperatures are forecast to
favor values from around 60 inland to the mid 60s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term guidance indicates that a cold front will approach
the region Tuesday night, possibly becoming stationary over or
near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. PW values are
forecast to increase to around 1.5 inches Wednesday afternoon.
As a sea breeze develops on Wednesday, convection should develop
between the sea breeze and the stationary front. The potential
for showers and thunderstorms will be highlighted with SCHC to
CHC PoPs Wed afternoon and evening. A similar process may
generally replay on Thursday, with the greatest coverage
shifting inland. Friday into Saturday, an area of low pressure
is forecast to organize over the Arklatex region, tracking to
the NE. The stationary front across the region may drift north
or dissipate. Less than SCHC PoPs expected across the region
headed into the weekend. Temperatures through the period should
remain above normal through the period. High temperatures should
generally range in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFs - Expect VFR conditions to continue into the early
overnight period, but as we get closer to sunrise patchy
shallow/ground fog may form (20-25% chance) across inland areas.
May thus see some MVFR conditions inland, though increasing
cloud coverage aloft may help to limit the formation/areal
coverage of any fog. Winds increase after sunrise which will
help to mix out any fog, though overall winds remain fairly
weak. Expect the sea-breeze to form and move inland right around
noon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are possible each
afternoon at all terminals with the passage of the sea breeze.
There are no other concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Sea breeze influences will diminish in the Charleston
Harbor and along the land/sea interface later this evening. A
southerly flow regime will remain in place tonight as Bermuda
high pressure noses in from the east. Winds will average around
10 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will generally
yield south winds around 10 kts each days. Winds may remain a
bit stronger close to the coast each afternoon following the sea
breeze. Seas should average 2-3 ft within 20 nm and around 3 ft
for the GA waters beyond 20 nm. No marine headlines are
expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...