932
FXUS62 KCHS 230052
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
752 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the region through Sunday. A
weak disturbance will pass to our south Sunday night into
Monday, followed by high pressure through Wednesday. A cold
front should move through on Thursday, before high pressure
returns next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Short-wave trough axis is in the process of passing through the
Carolinas this evening, main forcing passing well north of the
area through North Carolina. That said, enough forcing and
available moisture to kick off a small pocket of showers that is
currently moving through the coastal southeast SC area...particularly
Charleston County. Weather/pops have been updated to have low
end chances for showers through mid evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: Aloft, h5 vort energy traversing across the Deep South will
eventually reach the Southeast United States, helping spawn low
pressure across the northern Gulf that travels east and just south
of the local area during the night. The track of the sfc low will
play the largest role in precip potential across southern areas and
near the coast, generally in the form of light showers occurring
late evening into overnight hours. Until these features make their
closest approach, expect conditions to remain dry with daytime temps
peaking in the low-mid 60s under mostly sunny conditions (some high
cirrus arrives late day). Cloud cover and light southerly winds
should lead to a noticeably warmer overnight temps compared to the
previous night, generally in the upper 30s inland and north to low-
mid 40s across southern areas and near the coast.

Monday: H5 shortwave energy will continue to shift across the
Southeast United States while sfc low pressure centered south of the
area continues to push east across the western Atlantic. Few to
scattered showers are possible during morning hours, mainly confined
to coastal and/or southern areas, and temps will remain somewhat
cool under clouds through mid day. Conditions become drier heading
into afternoon hours as forcing and deeper moisture shifts farther
offshore while high pressure builds into the area from the west.
Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies take place during peak diurnal
heating hours, which should allow temps to recover to the low-mid
60s for afternoon highs. Winds are likely to decouple early evening
under clearing skies, setting up favorable radiational cooling
overnight. Low temps should once again dip into the the upper 30s
inland to low-mid 40s closer to the coast.

Tuesday: A zonal flow sets up across the Southeast United States
with sfc high pressure nudging into the region from the west. The
setup will favor a west-northwest downslope wind locally, leading to
dry, sunny and noticeably warmer temps with highs generally in the
lower 70s inland and mid-upper 60s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will bring dry conditions through Wednesday. A cold
front should bring a round of showers on Thursday, before high
pressure and dry conditions return on Friday and persist into
through following weekend. Temperatures should be above normal
Wednesday and Thursday, then return to near normal on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Overall VFR through 00Z Sunday. There is some hint
in model guidance for patchy fog across a small portion of southeast
Georgia overnight. Probabilities look too low to include in the
KSAV terminal forecast at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Weak low pressure passing south of the
local area Sunday night into early Monday could bring low
probabilities for flight restrictions at the SAV terminal. VFR
conditions are then expected at all terminals Monday afternoon
through Thursday morning. Brief flight restrictions are possible at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals with showers and low clouds associated with a
cold front arriving late Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will sweep through tonight, turning winds from
ENE to NW. However, wind speeds will only increase slightly, so
no headlines expected.

Sunday through Thursday: Weak coastal troughing off the SC/GA coast
on Sunday will shift farther offshore early week as high pressure
builds across the region from the west into the middle of the week.
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
as the pattern unfolds. A cold front is then expected to shift
across coastal waters Thursday with a round of showers. The pressure
gradient will become stronger with the passing front, potentially
leading to wind gusts up to 20-25 kt and the need for marginal Small
Craft Advisories over a portion of local waters post fropa Thursday
night. Seas will remain limited to 3-4 ft locally with an offshore
flow in wake of the front.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...Adam/DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL