090
FXUS62 KCHS 191825
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
225 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions are expected across the area into
  midweek. Heat Advisories could be needed.

- 2) A shift in the synoptic pattern will likely bring higher
  precipitation chances towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions are expected across the
area into midweek. Heat Advisories could be needed.

Very little change in the forecast is expect the next couple of
days as the heat and humidity lingers through Wednesday. The
overall players remain the same across the area with deep upper
troughing across the Northeast, high pressure to our east over
the Atlantic and a tropical depression over the northern Gulf.
Monday and Tuesday, will see highs topping out in the low to
mid 90s and dewpoints able to mix out into the low 70s. This
should be enough to keep heat indices in the 100 to 105 range
and while this is still hot, this is more in line with typical
summertime conditions for the area. The bigger questions come
on Wednesday as dewpoints should gradually increase as better
moisture arrives. This will be aided by the disturbance in the
Gulf as it slowly tracks westward. The usual trouble areas
behind the seabreeze could start to approach advisory criteria
come Tuesday into Wednesday as dewpoints climb into the upper
70s to near 80 resulting in heat indices of around 108 to 110.
This could require Heat Advisories across portions of the area.


.KEY MESSAGE 2: A shift in the synoptic pattern will likely bring
higher precipitation chances towards the end of the week.

Monday the region will remain positioned between low pressure in the
Northern Gulf (TD2) and high pressure over the Western Atlantic.
This pattern will persist into Tuesday, with TD2 slowly shifting
westward into Wednesday. As the low pressure shifts westward a mid
level trough will set up over the eastern CONUS. At the surface a
cold front will approach the region Wednesday, likely stalling in
the vicinity of the forecast area into the end of the week. This
stalled front is likely to bring increased precipitation chances to
the region. The Weather Prediction Center has the entire forecast
area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on
Thursday, with a Slight Risk over northern Charleston and Berkeley
Counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
19/18Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will subside late this
evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through mid week. Chances
of flight restrictions increase later this week with a greater
coverage of showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: As the local waters remain situated between
an inland trough and a subtropical high to the east, this will
yield breezy southwesterly flow through late tonight. Expect
wind speeds to range from 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
mainly across the Charleston County nearshore waters. Thus, a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for those waters through
8 PM tonight. As south-southwesterly swell slowly tapers back,
expect seas to drop to 2-3 ft.

Monday through Thursday: The marine waters will remain positioned
between high pressure to the east and low pressure in the Northern
Gulf (TD2). Mid-week a front will approach the region, stalling in
the vicinity of the marine waters late week. Small Craft Advisories
could be needed for this period, especially in the Charleston
nearshore waters and the Charleston Harbor.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for our
SE GA beaches Monday, given enhanced winds along the coastline
and wave periods up to 6 seconds. A Moderate Risk returns to all
area beaches on Tuesday as 6 second swell and enhanced SSW/SW
winds develop along the entire coastline.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 19:
KCHS: 79/1986
KCXM: 83/1986

July 20:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 83/2000
KSAV: 79/1942

July 21:
KCHS: 80/1986
KCXM: 83/1998

July 22:
KCHS: 81/2011
KCXM: 83/2011

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360.

&&

$$