443
FXUS62 KCHS 170611
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
111 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into the region early this week, the
forecast is expected to remain rain-free throughout the work
week. A warm front should lift north of the region by
Wednesday, and allow for unseasonable warm conditions to
persist afterwards. Another cold front could pass through the
region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Sunrise: Radar and surface observations indicate a dry
cold front is quickly moving south through our area. It`ll be
located to our south by daybreak.

Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging
building towards our area. This will cause WNW flow overhead
with heights slightly rising. At the surface, High pressure
will build in from the northwest this morning, passing to our
north this afternoon and evening, then becoming located to our
northeast tonight. The High will bring our area dry conditions
with some passing clouds. There will be a large range in high
temperatures, peaking from the mid 60s across the Charleston
Tri-County, to the mid 70s near the Altamaha River and
vicinity. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will cause
plenty of radiational cooling tonight. There will also be a
large range in low temperatures. They should bottom out in the
upper 30s very far inland, the 40s across most of our area, and
the lower to middle 50s at/near the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A shortwave trough situated over the Great Plains will slowly
weaken as it moves across the Appalachian Mtns., before re-
organizing off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday
afternoon. Simultaneously, an associated front will approach the
region, but it is expected to weaken and stall out across the
Mid-Atlantic before washing out. There is no precipitation
expected with this system as the majority of forcing remains to
the north of the region. This pattern yield weak return flow
across the region with increasing low- lvl thicknesses.
Temperatures will progressively warm-up throughout the period as
WAA and mostly sunny skies promote unseasonable warm
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong upper-lvl ridge with nearly 590 DM will be present
over the Gulf on Thursday night and the majority of Friday.
Expect temperatures to remain generally 10 to 12 degrees above
normal with a rain-free forecast. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday will reach near record highs (see Climate section), with
low 80s across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across
SE GA. The next chance for precipitation will be Saturday as a
surface low develops across the central CONUS and throws an
associated cold front towards the region. With a fairly complex
synoptic pattern, there is quite a bit uncertainty as model
guidance widely differs with the timing of this front. It really
depends on how much of an impact the H5 ridge located along the
Atlantic coast will have on the system. A stronger ridge
results (seen in the 12Z ECMWF) in a slower progression of the
cold front, while a weaker ridge (seen in the 00Z GFS) results
in a faster moving progression. It is possible the forecast may
trend cooler and wetter if the 12Z ECMWF guidance holds true.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. It is possible that
periods of ground fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunrise: A dry cold front is quickly moving south
through our coastal waters. It`ll be located south of our waters
by daybreak. Winds and seas may become slightly higher behind
the front, but no Small Craft Advisories are expected.

Today and Tonight: High pressure will build in from the
northwest this morning, passing to our north this afternoon and
evening, then becoming located to our northeast tonight. The
High will bring our coastal waters tranquil conditions.

Tuesday through Saturday: As surface high pressure continues to
build across the local marine zones, west-southwesterly winds
will remain light and variable. Ahead of the developing surface
low across the central CONUS, winds could increase to 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Friday night into the weekend.
Seas will generally range from 1 to 3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure building in from the north today will bring dry
conditions. RH values are expected to be critically low this
afternoon. Inland RH values should drop into the teens, while
closer to the coast RH values should fall into the 20s. Winds
should be fairly light today, which should limit fire weather
concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942

November 21:
KSAV: 82/2011

November 22:
KSAV: 82/1997

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...