125
FXUS62 KCHS 221713
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
113 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will slowly approach the region today then become
stationary over or near the area Wednesday into late week.
Another cold front could reach the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today into early evening: Short-wave trough will be advancing
up through the western and central Carolinas through the course
of the afternoon hours while surface troughing presses across
the central and eventually eastern Carolinas and eastern Georgia
by late afternoon. Modest short-wave forcing in concert with
low level convergence with the trough and inland pressing sea
breeze boundary might be enough to kick of a few showers inland
this afternoon into early evening, although overall instability
is looking fairly meager (a few hundred J/Kg MUCAPE) and a bit
capped. Nonetheless, plan to have some isolated pops inland this
afternoon, but the better coverage and chances for
showers/storms will be confined across the western Carolinas and
northern Georgia region. Afternoon max temperatures will
largely reach the middle to upper 80s

Tonight: Shearing upper level wave will continue to advance to
the Mid Atlantic coast while the surface trough settles in
across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Georgia. Residual
shower activity might graze the far western part of the forecast
area through the evening, although dry weather will largely
prevail through the night. Late night there are enough signs of
some fog and stratus with light/calm winds, favorable
condensation pressure deficits and FSI values. Lows will only
drop to the dew points down in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front approaching from the northwest will stall roughly
across the Central Carolinas and northern Georgia Wednesday into
Thursday. At least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday, with low level convergence near the boundary
as well as enhancement by the afternoon sea breeze. There could be
some further forcing aloft due to a potential passing shortwave. The
caveat is the discrepancy between the models on the timing and
strength of this shortwave, which could pass Wednesday or possibly
even Thursday. Regardless, Thursday looks to be a repeat of
Wednesday with the front still meandering to the north and
likelihood of sea breeze/boundary interactions. Likely POPs have
been maintained inland in close proximity to the front with slight
chance POPs elsewhere for both days.

Thursday night into Friday the front will retreat north, slightly
decreasing rain chances. Slight chance POPs have been introduced to
the inland areas as showers and thunderstorms are limited to the
forcing provided by the sea breeze. High temperatures should peak in
the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees away from the coast Wednesday.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler for Thursday, with the warmest
temperatures focused across southeast Georgia due to differential
heating or less cloud coverage away from the front. By Friday, highs
will return to the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures will remain in
the low/mid 60s both Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area Saturday and looks to quickly
push through the area Saturday night or Sunday morning. Additional
rain chances are possible Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the
front, but could extend into Sunday if the FROPA takes a slower
approach. Drier high pressure will return early next week. Above
normal temperatures will persist through Saturday before dipping
closer to normal by Sunday with the arrival of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions through tomorrow morning. Some
low stratus and/or fog may develop across the region overnight
into Wednesday morning, although confidence is too low to
include flight restrictions at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There could be showers and
thunderstorms that impact the terminals Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Gusty winds are possible Friday and Saturday
afternoon at all terminals with the passage of the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds persist across the coastal waters through
tonight. Sea breeze will once again develop and press inland
later this morning and through the afternoon, providing some
enhancement to wind speeds. Seas will continue to run 1 to 3
feet.

Wednesday through Sunday: The weather pattern will generally yield
south-southeast winds around 10 kt nearly each day. Winds could be a
bit stronger across the Charleston Harbor and close to the coast
each afternoon following the sea breeze. Seas should average 1-3 ft
within 20 nm and around 3 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

A cold front looks to approach Saturday night and increase winds to
around 15 kt Sunday with slightly higher gusts. Wave heights will
also increase in response. No marine headlines are expected at this
time. Mariners do need to be alert for some potential t-storm
activity Wednesday through Thursday, and again Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dennis
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...Dennis
MARINE...Adam/BRS