073
FXUS62 KCHS 232331
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
631 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will remain the primary feature through
early next week. A cold front will move through Tuesday night,
then a stronger front will move through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the evening update, no significant changes were necessary
except for trends. We might need to expand the coverage of frost
per later trends, but no changes to the Frost Advisory. Maybe
some steam fog near rivers, ponds, marshes, etc closer to
daybreak.

Surface high pressure will continue to edge into the southeast
region tonight to be nearly overhead by Sunday morning, with
clear skies anticipated at all locations. As the surface high
settles overhead, this will lead to light/calm winds.

Clear skies and weakening/calm winds tonight will result in
more favorable radiational cooling and frost conditions that we
had last night. However, lower level thermal profiles will
rebound rather quickly through tonight with notable height
rises aloft/H8 temps rebounding from +3C to+6C this morning to
near 12C early Sunday morning. That will offset the radiational
cooling to some extent. But given calm winds inland low
temperatures will likely dip into the middle to upper 30s
supporting patchy to areas of frost. After collaboration with
surrounding offices, Frost Advisories have been raised for a
good portion of the inland counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow will prevail aloft on Sunday, with the flow turning SW
Monday as a mid-level trough pushes eastward across the Midwest. At
the surface high pressure will continue to build into the region
from the north, with a weak cold front pushing through on Tuesday
associated with the mid-level trough. A rain-free forecast has been
maintained, with plentiful dry air aloft. Temperatures will slowly
increase through the period, with mid to upper 60s on Sunday warming
to the mid 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows Sunday will be chilly once
again as skies remain clear and winds go light/calm, with lows
dipping into the upper 30s far inland and upper 40s along the coast.
Monday night will be slightly warmer overnight as winds remain
slightly elevated and the flow aloft goes SW, with lows in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The flow aloft will briefly go zonal on Wednesday before another mid-
level trough swings across the CONUS. The cold front associated with
this trough will be stronger than the one earlier in the week, with
a chance of showers and temperatures noticeably colder on the
backside through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
24/00Z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A slack pressure gradient will result in westerly winds
no more than 5 or 10 kt, and seas of just 1 or 2 feet.

Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will prevail across the
marine zones Sunday through the middle of the week. A weak cold
front is then forecast to push through the region Tuesday, with a
strong cold front pushing through Thursday. SW winds generally
around 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet are forecast through the
middle of the week. A slight surge in winds is expected after FROPA
on Tuesday with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts
to 20 knots. An additional surge in winds is expected with the
stronger cold front Thursday, with winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts
around 25 knots and seas building to 3 to 4 ft. Small Craft
Advisories may be required for all marine zones late in the week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>116-137-138.
SC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for SCZ040-042>045-
     047.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...
MARINE...