229
FXUS62 KCHS 051804
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
104 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather through early
next week, then cold high pressure will build in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Sunset: Light to moderate showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue across our area.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of WSW flow overhead. At
the surface, a frontal system will be located off our coast this
evening, along with Low pressure off the Outer Banks. As the
Low quickly lifts to the NE this evening, it`ll pull the frontal
system a little further offshore. PWATs ~1.5", especially along
the coast, will gradually lower as time progresses. But the
CAMs and deterministic models indicate enough moisture and lift
will remain in place to keep light showers persisting across our
area. Though, POPs should start to trend lower after midnight.
Overnight QPF should be 0.25" or less, with the highest amounts
further inland. Lowering ceilings could also cause patchy fog
to form. But the showers and wind direction should keep it from
becoming dense. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper level troughing lingers across the central CONUS
heading into the weekend, as a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
remains positioned along the SC/GA coast. As noted in days
past, this in addition to multiple shortwaves, will result in a
fairly wet pattern through Monday. In terms of coverage, expect
light showers Saturday morning to give way to moderate and more
widespread rain by Saturday afternoon/evening. Coverage then
lessens during the overnight period, with isolated to scattered
showers then expected Sunday into Monday. Afternoon highs in the
50s and lows in the 40s will be common during this time as
stratus blankets the region. In regard to rainfall
accumulations, latest guidance has 3-day accumulations less than
an inch across our area, which should help minimize flooding
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cool, dry high pressure will build in from the west Monday
night, allowing dry conditions to prevail throughout the
upcoming week. Overnight lows will feel a bit chilly Monday and
Tuesday night, as CAA causes temperatures to drop near/below
freezing. Otherwise, look for daytime highs to gradually
moderate back into the low to mid 60s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: A frontal system will bring SHRA, low ceilings, and
reduced visibilities to all of the TAF sites. Conditions may
fluctuate this afternoon, but mainly LIFR should prevail.
Overnight, conditions could drop to near airport minimums. Late
in the TAF time period, conditions should start gradually
improving to IFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A relatively prolonged period of
ceiling restrictions expected Saturday through Monday.
Prevailing MVFR with periods of IFR are expected. Periods of
rain could occasionally reduce visibilities as well. Improving
conditions later Monday or Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunset: Showers, isolated thunderstorms, and some
patchy fog should continue across the coastal waters.

Tonight: A frontal system will be located off our coast this
evening, along with Low pressure off the Outer Banks. As the Low
quickly lifts to the NE, it`ll pull the frontal system a little
further offshore, keeping winds relatively light across our
coastal waters. However, showers will persist through the
night, along with maybe some isolated thunderstorms in the
evening. Lowering ceilings could also cause patchy fog to form.
But the showers and wind direction should keep it from becoming
dense.

Saturday Onward: A brief period of marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible for the Charleston nearshore and GA
offshore waters Monday afternoon into Monday night. Another
round of marginal advisory conditions possible Wednesday night
and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will remain elevated through the weekend.
Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed for morning high tide
cycles, primarily at Charleston Harbor (Charleston and Coastal
Colleton counties) through Sunday morning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...