426
FXUS62 KCHS 052101
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
401 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger in the area tonight, then lift
north as a warm front Thursday. Another front may approach the
area late Friday and Friday night, then high pressure will
build in through Sunday. A storm system will bring unsettled
weather to the area early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A stalled front, currently over southeast South Carolina, will
meander over the area through tonight. Weak mid level energy
will pass across the region which could lead to isolated to
perhaps scattered showers, but QPF looks to be minimal. Best
chance for showers will be over the interior and northern zones.
Otherwise, thicker and lower cloud cover is expected to develop
this evening, resulting in mostly cloudy skies overnight. There
is some concern for stratus build-down, but fog coverage is
still a bit uncertain so only patchy fog was included in the
forecast at this time. Temperatures will be mild by early
February standards, only falling to the low to middle 50s in
most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: A fast moving short wave within a zonal flow aloft will
exit the coast early on, ending any showers from previously. At the
surface, a stationary front that is found near the Savannah River
prior to daybreak will lift north as a warm front. With Atlantic
high pressure extending west into the Gulf of Mexico, a deep
westerly flow will prevail. This will allow for temperatures in most
places to warm near record highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The
exception will be the coast, where a resultant sea breeze will hold
temperatures down as much as 12-18F cooler. In addition, sea fog
lingering offshore could blend onshore the barrier islands at times,
suggesting it could be even colder.

Thursday night: Zonal flow aloft, and high pressure at the surface
to our south, will result in large scale subsidence. Sea fog over
the ocean could brush onshore at times, but given a southwest or
west-southwest synoptic flow, most of it will stay offshore. Lows
will drop to the mid and upper 50s, and there could be some
radiation fog late.

Friday: A cold front could approach the local area, but given a
zonal flow aloft, and the front mainly parallel to this flow, it will
struggle to move in. Even so there is some forcing with a nearby
upper jet to our north, and decent moisture. This could be enough to
generate isolated to scattered showers, mainly north and northwest.
There is actually a little instability, so we can`t entirely rule
out isolated t-storms. Temperatures will be similar to Thursday, and
near record highs for the date, with again a a resultant sea breeze
to keep shoreline locations much cooler.

Saturday: The cold front could sneak in to our northern zones. But
given the zonal flow aloft this is not a certainty. It does remain
close enough nearby though to produce at least a few showers north
and northwest in better proximity to the deeper moisture.
Temperatures will be determined by wherever the front sets up, but
for many places it again looks far above climatological norms away
from the beaches.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of cold fronts will draw closer by, and eventually deeper
moisture will move in as the flow aloft backs a little more
southwest. This will lead to higher rain chances, with the highest
probabilities to occur Tuesday and Wednesday with potential short
waves aloft to pass through. Guidance does imply some instability,
so t-storms are possible. Temperatures will be far above climo, with
850 mb temperatures as high as 11-13C.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The chance for flight restrictions will increase tonight as a
wedge front sinks south. Guidance is pretty consistent in at
least MVFR ceilings tonight at all three terminals, with some
potential for IFR. Kept MVFR now until trends are clearer. A few
showers will be possible overnight as well at KCHS/KJZI, but
any direct impacts will be brief/minimal so maintained VCSH. VFR
is expected to return on Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in fog and/or low
stratus is possible during the overnight and/or early morning
periods at the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A stalled front, currently over southeast South
Carolina, will meander over the area tonight. The front should
sink a bit further south and turn winds around to the
northeast/east. Speeds will average 10 knots or less. Seas will
be 1-2 ft within 20 NM and 2-3 ft over the Georgia offshore
waters out 20-60 NM.

Sea fog: The biggest marine issue is sea fog. Satellite
imagery, webcams, and a recent report from the Charleston Pilot
Boat indicates fog, some dense, is persisting over the
Charleston county nearshore waters. We have opted to extend the
Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 21z. Some guidance indicates
fog could become an issue further south through the night, so we
did add mention of fog over the nearshore Georgia waters as
well.

Thursday through Monday: A stationary front over the waters early
Thursday will shift north as a warm front the rest of the day.
Thereafter, the local waters will be situated between high pressure
to the south, and a cold front to the north and northwest. That
front could sag into the northern waters Saturday, albeit only
temporarily, before lifting back north. Another cold front could
move in Monday. Winds and seas are far beneath Small Craft Advisory
conditions.

Sea fog is the main concern given abnormally warm and moist air
continuing atop the cooler shelf waters. Depending upon the coverage
of the fog, Marine Dense Fog Advisories appear likely. &&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

February 5:
KSAV: 82/2008

February 6:
KCHS: 78/2019
KSAV: 82/2008

February 7:
KCHS: 80/2019
KSAV: 82/2019

February 8:
KSAV: 82/1921

February 9:
KCHS: 80/1949
KCXM: 76/1921
KSAV: 83/1957


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 7:
KSAV: 62/1884

February 8:
KCHS: 59/2017
KSAV: 62/1921

February 9:
KCHS: 60/1949
KCXM: 60/1949

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...