408
FXUS62 KCHS 062359
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
759 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken as it tracks north
across eastern North Carolina tonight. Weak high pressure will
then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
continue to impact portions of southeast SC, primarily across
Colleton County and the Charleston Tri-County region. This
activity is mostly showers, but is within a pocket of
1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE so we are seeing some thunderstorm
activity at times. The main impact from this activity are
short-lived bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall. Most places
that have been directly impacted have picked up 0.25-0.50" of
rain, but there are some isolated amounts in western Charleston
County that have likely seen upwards of an inch or more.
Overall, this activity will persist for a couple more hours as
outflow boundaries interact but should start to wind down with
the loss of heating by mid to late evening. The rest of the
overnight should be dry and quiet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region will be observing a slowly strengthening ridge axis
over the southeastern CONUS, with the remnants of TD Chantal
continuing to move well north of the region into Tuesday. This
will usher in a fairly standard summer pattern to start off the
work week, with daily highs in the lower to mid 90s and 20-30
percent chances for scattered showers in the afternoon, mostly
along a sea-breeze. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest as
the aforementioned ridge strengthens, with the NBM bringing
dewpoints in a touch lower than they have been. This has
resulted in heat index values remaining below heat advisory
criteria, though it will still be warm and moist. Wednesday will
likely see an increase in mid-level moisture as the ridge
weakens aloft, which should increase cloud coverage ahead of
more widespread showers and thunderstorms along the sea- breeze.
While shear remains weak and there is a lack of strong forcing,
chances for severe weather remain low through Wednesday, though
given 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE the chances are non-zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak flow with upper level ridging aloft continues into the
weekend, resulting in normal summertime conditions. Max
temperatures in the 90s, overnight lows in the 70s, with
diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with showers and thunderstorms either
impacting or near KCHS and KJZI while KSAV looks all clear. KCHS
is likely done with showers and storms, but KJZI will have to
deal with it for another hour or two before this activity winds
down. We have initialized KJZI with VCTS and a TEMPO group for
IFR conditions through 01z. Overnight, VFR conditions should
prevail. There could be afternoon thunderstorms on Monday, but
coverage should be isolated and confidence in direct impacts at
the terminals is low.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions
possible Monday through Thursday due to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, the marine zones will remain between departing TD
Chantal over eastern NC and broad high pressure over the
Bahamas. This pattern will support southwest winds between 10 to
15 kts tonight. Seas should remain between 3-5 ft this evening,
then 3-4 ft by late tonight.

Monday through Friday: No marine concerns/headlines expected
throughout the week. Winds start out of the southwest each
morning, becoming southerly and breezy throughout the day
sustained mid to upper teens with gusts into the upper teens to
lower 20s. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet expected.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all
area beaches today due to residual swell. Lingering swell will
result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the Charleston
County beaches on Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/BSH
MARINE...APT/NED