Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
585 FXUS62 KCHS 211745 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will dive across the area Saturday night, followed by the return of high pressure early next week. Rain chances then return late Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front takes aim at the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat to the east overnight while a weak upper shortwave approaches from the west. We could see isolated showers move into our far inland zones around daybreak Saturday as a weak cold front sags into the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Zonal flow will prevail aloft on Saturday, with a shortwave trough rippling across the southeastern states early Sunday morning. At the surface high pressure Saturday will retreat offshore as a weak cold front associated with the shortwave aloft pushes through the region. With the front not pushing through until later Saturday night or even early Sunday morning, high temperatures on Saturday will soar to near record levels (see Climate section for more details) with highs pushing 80 across most locations. Little precipitation is expected with FROPA, with only a slight chance of showers featured in the forecast, mainly across inland locations. High pressure then builds across the region Sunday and Monday, allowing dry conditions to prevail. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler during this time, though still above normal. Thus, look for highs in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows ranging from the low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad ridging aloft will dominate in the upper levels through Tuesday while high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Upper level troughing then develops across the Ohio River Valley by mid-week, dragging an attendant cold front eastward across the sfc. Still a bit of variability in place between models, but most guidance generally agrees that the next best chance for seeing precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as the aforementioned front dives across our area. Nonetheless, with PoPs less than 30%, still not expecting to see much in the way of meaningful accumulations. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs in the 70s to largely prevail before FROPA, with highs then dipping into the 60s in its wake. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No flight restrictions anticipated through 18Z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Conditions through the period are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A weak cold front will push through the marine waters Saturday, with high pressure dominating through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front, with gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Saturday night into Sunday morning winds will diminish slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the NW and then NE by early next week. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 21: KSAV: 82/2011 November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...JRL/SST MARINE...JRL/SST