092
FXUS62 KCHS 062346
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
746 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal
boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may
be severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the
primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early
next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isolated diurnal convection across far south GA expected to
dissipate in a few hours as the airmass stabilizes.

Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail, but there remains a low
chance of showers/thunderstorms originating from northern Georgia
to make a run for far interior areas late night. Latest guidance
suggests the bulk of this activity to dissipate prior to reaching
the area and/or in a much weaker state should it reach inland
areas. At this time, the forecast remains precip-free through
the night while temps remain warm, generally only dipping into
the lower 70s inland to mid-upper 70s near the coast. Some
beach locations could even remain around 80 degrees. These lows
could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially
at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston (KCXM).
See the climate section below for additional information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: As a shortwave moves eastward across the Midwest, an
MCS will likely develop across the Southern Plains and begin to
approach the Southeast. Across the Lowcountry, very humid
conditions are expected as afternoon highs climb into the low
90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for
heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the
warmest along and east of I-95. This is not uncommon for the
Lowcountry, however its a good reminder to stay well hydrated
and take breaks indoors as needed.

This aforementioned MCS will move coincidentally with the
shortwave into the Southeastern CONUS in the afternoon hours.
Given the overall environmental conditions this system is
moving into, severe thunderstorms are possible. Latest
soundings Saturday afternoon have been displaying CAPE values
well over 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values ~1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk
shear values ~30 kt. In addition to this, strong diabatic
heating will result steep low-level lapse rates. The main threat
would be from damaging wind gusts, with hail a lesser concern.
The latest guidance shows the MCS potentially reaching our
forecast area around 8pm Saturday, however confidence in the
timing is quite low since it might not even make it this far
southeast.

If this system does end up holding together, convection could
linger till shortly after midnight. Overnight lows will be mild
and only dip into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the
beaches.

Sunday: The forecast on Sunday is conditional on how Saturday
pans out. If we only see scattered convection on Saturday, the
airmass would be primed for more robust convection on Sunday.
On the other hand, if a residual MCS moves through the area
Saturday, the airmass would probably be pretty worked-over.
Another potent shortwave is expected to move through Sunday and
the environment could be fairly conducive to damaging winds if
storms organize. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid day
with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s again. Overnight
lows will be in the low/mid 70s.

Monday: Expect an upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes
region to deepen throughout the day, while an associated cold front
approaches the region and then stalls nearby. Showers and
thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon along the sea breeze as
conditions remain favorable for development. Temperatures will
be a bit cooler than the last couple days with highs reaching
into the upper 80s and heat indices remaining below 100. However,
overnight lows remain mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region
should become more amplified across the Eastern CONUS on Tuesday
and then taper off afterwards. The aforementioned cold front
extending from this upper-lvl trough situated over the Great
Lakes region could pass through sometime mid-week. This typical
diurnal summertime pattern of scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze in the afternoon
will continue. Expect temperatures to be somewhat cooler through
the period in the wake of the cold front passing through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through early Saturday evening. The only
exception would be if convection impacts any of the terminals.
Chances are too low to warrant any mention in the 00Z TAFs. The
best chance for showers or tstms to impact the terminals would
be after 18Z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection
pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Late Afternoon through Tonight: South-southwest winds between 10-15
kt will prevail across most local waters with occasional gusts up to
20 kt late day near the land/sea interface where a sea breeze has
developed. Otherwise, expect southwest/west winds ranging between 10-
15 kt to return across the waters overnight between low pressure
exiting further to the north-northeast and high pressure extending
across the western Atlantic. Seas will generally range between
2-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect south-westerly winds to prevail
throughout the period, with speeds generally 10 to 15 kt. It could
become a bit gusty on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with gusts up to
20 to 23 kt possible with the sea breeze pushing inland (gusts will
be strongest across the Charleston Harbor). SCAs are not needed at
this time for the Harbor, however this will be continued to be
monitored. This south-easterly swell will begin to taper off and
seas will range from 2 to 3 ft, with some 4 footers in the outer
Georgia waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KCHS: 75/2021
KCXM: 79/2021

June 8:
KCHS: 76/1980
KCXM: 78/2021
KSAV: 79/1881

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JRL
SHORT TERM...Dennis/JRL
LONG TERM...Dennis/JRL
AVIATION...Dennis/JRL
MARINE...Dennis/DPB