490
FXUS62 KCHS 122251
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
651 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the North Carolina coast will move farther
away from the region tonight. High pressure will extend into
the area Monday and linger into much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The deep and slow moving upper low situated across the
Southeast should finally start to shift off to the east as it
begins to be absorbed by another upper low across the Northeast.
At the surface, the attending surface low will begin the period
just off the southeast NC coast and should start to make a bit
of progress to the northeast through the overnight. The forecast
area will remain in an area of deep forcing for the first part
of the evening, before shifts offshore through the night.
Precipitable water values will start off at 1.5+ inches,
steadily trending down through sunrise Monday. Hi-res model
guidance, supported by the HREF, depict light to moderate
stratiform rainfall continuing to be widespread through the
early evening then quickly diminishing in coverage and intensity
from midnight onward. In fact, the period will likely begin
with 80-100 percent rain chances through early evening, becoming
dry by sunrise Monday. There could still be a shower or two
lingering across eastern Berkeley and Charleston counties late
tonight, but effectively the rain event will finally be over.
Skies will remain solidly overcast through most of the period,
though there could be some clearing across the inland most
counties of southeast GA by daybreak Monday. Northwest winds
will remain elevated, but not as breezy as last night, though
there could still be some gusts into the 15-20 knot range for
southeast SC and especially the Tri-County region. Lows are
forecast to dip into the upper 50s inland of the coastal
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As this coastal low continues to travel northeastward along the
Eastern Seaboard, a mid-lvl ridge will set up over the region
and allow for the return of dry and warm weather. The drier mid-
lvls and subsidence will hinder shower and/or thunderstorm
development throughout the period. Expect skies to finally clear
out on Monday morning and stay clear throughout most of the
week. Along with clear skies, winds will become noticeably
lighter than the previous couple days. Temperatures will return
to normal with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s,
with lows dipping into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. It`s
important to note that a slight shift in the ridge axis could
promote the formation of mid to high level clouds, which could
alter the high temperatures slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This mid-lvl ridging pattern will dominate the forecast
throughout the week with little to zero chance of precipitation.
Deterministic and ensemble models have been hinting at a dry
front passing through the region on Wednesday night. This might
drop the temperatures a bit and cause for a subtle wind shift,
but not much else. Behind this front, expect a reinforcing dry
continental airmass to shift into the region. This will allow
for lower dewpoints and pleasantly warm days under clear skies
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
13/00Z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Light to locally moderate rainfall will continue
to impact the terminals this evening. Activity should gradually
wane as 06z approaches. Cigs should trend to MVFR overnight, but
will lean closer to IFR at the start. VFR should return by late
morning/early afternoon for all sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low clouds might cause brief flight
restrictions at KCHS/KJZI early Monday morning, but then expect
VFR conditions to prevail thereafter into the late week.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for Charleston Harbor and the Georgia
nearshore leg will be cancelled a bit early.

Through tonight: The coastal low will start to pull away from
the area and as a result winds will continue to gradually
diminish. The evening will begin with solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions across all waters, including gusts up to 30 knots
across the SC waters and the outer GA waters. By sunrise Monday,
winds will diminish to gusts in the 20-25 knot range and seas
will steadily come down as well. By the early morning hours, the
Small Craft Advisories will be down for Charleston Harbor, the
nearshore GA waters, and the southern SC waters. Advisories will
continue beyond the tonight period for the Charleston County
waters and the outer GA waters.

Monday: North to northwesterly flow will dominate the local
waters, with wind speeds ranging 15-20 kts with gusts up to
22-23 kts throughout the afternoon. Seas will be 4-6 ft in the
nearshore waters, and 5-7 ft in the outer Georgia waters.
Therefore, due to wave heights, Small Craft Advisories will
continue for nearshore Charleston waters (AMZ350) until Monday
afternoon and for Georgia offshore waters (AMZ374) late Monday
night.

Tuesday through Friday: Expect marine conditions to gradually
improve as high pressure builds down from the northwest. Winds
should remain 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts possible on
Tuesday through most of Wednesday. A dry front is expected to
sweep across the waters on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Expect winds to veer north-northeasterly behind the
front, and the local pressure gradient to tighten up. In
response to this, winds will strengthen to 15-20 kts with gusts
up to 22-23 kts on Thursday. On Friday, the winds should ease
throughout the day with speeds ranging 10-15 kts by mid-day.
Expect seas to 2-4 ft on Tuesday, and then building back up to
4-6 ft on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories might be needed for
AMZ350 and AMZ374 due to wave heights beginning on Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Beach conditions should improve with the
decreasing winds on Monday, and the risk of rip currents will
fall into the moderate category at all beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ374.

&&

$$