803
FXUS61 KCAR 111644
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1244 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking through Quebec will pull a warm front across
the area today followed by a cold front this evening. High
pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday...crest over
the area Wednesday night...then slide east of the region
Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will begin to approach from
the Upper Midwest on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:50PM Update... Only minor adjustments. Warm front pushes
east, leading to a surge of warm air. Updated temperatures to
match observations, with southern counties entering into the
40s. Clouds expected o still linger in the area later tonight,
so updated sky forecast based on satellite imagery. Otherwise,
previous forecast on track.

Previous Discussion...
A weak warm front is slowly lifting north through Maine this
morning as low pressure tracks through Quebec. Winds are turning
S-SW aloft and will turn S at the surface this morning. Warm air
advection will be underway behind the warm front which will lead
to a bunch of clouds today. A few isolated snow showers this
morning associated with the warm front is possible across the
north but most locations remain dry till this afternoon. S winds
today will become gusty 10-15mph gusting up to 30mph at times.
High temperatures top out in the low to mid 40s across the
North, mid to upper 40s for the Central Highlands and Downeast
Coast and 49-51F for the Greater Bangor area.

Later this afternoon a cold front will approach from the NW out
of Quebec and reach the Maine border by 4-6PM. Hi-Res guidance
agrees with the global models and has this front reaching
Greenville/Caribou by 7-9PM and then Bangor/Danforth by
10PM-12AM and clearing the coast by 2-3AM. Ahead of this front
expecting rain showers to develop across the northern 1/2 of the
CWA with temperatures well above freezing. However, as FROPA
occurs expect rapid temperatures drops with rain showers
changing to snow showers. Cannot rule out a brief dusting up to
0.5 inch of snow. Much of the precipitation activity will
remain north of a line from Dover-Foxcroft to Topsfield. To the
south of this line just expecting increasing clouds and
eventually a wind shift with FROPA. Across the north with
temperatures falling rapidly, wet surfaces with any snowfall
will freeze up and become icy if left untreated. Overnight
travel could become slippery especially from the Central
Highlands northward to the St. John Valley. Temperatures will
fall back into the low to mid single digits across the north
with wind chills -10F to -5F. Across the Central Highlands the
air temps fall back into the upper teens to low 20s with mid 20s
along the Downeast Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A small area of high pressure building across Quebec on Wednesday
will push colder Arctic air across the area bringing plenty of
bright sunshine, but a cold day with highs near mid-winter norms,
from around 20 north to the mid 30s near the coast.

High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday night bringing a
calm moonlit night allowing temperatures in the evening to quickly
fall. One forecast challenge is how quickly clouds increase from a
weak disturbance approaching from the west. If the night stays
mostly clear, valley areas of the north could drop well below zero.
A quicker increase in clouds would cap the cooling, keeping lows
near or just above zero. Will carry lows just below zero in the
normally colder valleys which could chill quickly in the calm air
before clouds filter in.

High pressure will slide east of the area Thursday allowing a return
southerly flow to bring some moderation boosting temps into the low
to mid 30s across the area. Otherwise, Thursday will be mostly
cloudy as a very weak disturbance slides through. A bit of patchy
light snow or snow showers may accompany the disturbance.

The weak weather disturbance crossing the area Thursday will slide
to the east Thursday night allowing a thin ridge of high pressure to
return over the region. This will bring a partly cloudy and
moderately cold night with lows in the low 20s over most of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move well southeast of the area out into
the open Atlantic on Friday as a return southerly flow lifts warmer
air north in our region. This will bring a partly sunny day with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s across the area.

Our attention as the weekend approaches turns to a large storm
system lifting through the Plains. A southerly breeze will increase
between the approaching low and high pressure out in the Atlantic.
After lows only a couple degrees below freezing Friday night, highs
Saturday will approach 50 under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

The southerly breeze and moisture will increase Saturday night
keeping lows only in the upper 30s across the area. A corridor of
moisture out ahead of the Plains low will begin to stream into the
region overnight bringing a chance for showers late at night.

A frontal occlusion ahead of the large low to our west, now lifting
north into Central Canada, will channel even warm air and deep
moisture into the region Sunday into Sunday night. A humid
southerly wind, moderate rainfall, temperatures in the low to
mid 50s and dew points reaching the mid to upper 40s will
rapidly melt the snowpack. The ground is still deeply frozen
which will limit absorption causing a lot of runoff. Rising
streams and rivers may result in ice movement and possibly ice
jams in some areas following the rain and heavy melting event.
The greatest erosion of snow will Sunday into Sunday night.
Response on the rivers may occur anytime early next week as the
runoff continues. Temperatures may not drop below zero until
Monday night following the passage of the occlusion.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...VFR cigs through sunset this
evening. A few low-level decks moving through terminals today.
LLWS develops this evening ahead of FROPA. Today S winds 10-15kt
with gusts up 30kt possible. This evening FROPA will occur
between 23-02Z. Winds shift NW 10-15kt gusts up to 25kt. LLWS
will shift and persist through the night.
-SHRA this evening will become -SHSN after FROPA. MVFR cigs
expected for a few hours before and after FROPA at most sites.

Southern Terms...VFR cigs through tomorrow morning. S winds
today 10-15kt with gusts up to 30kt possible. LLWS likely this
afternoon. Winds will shift NW this evening with FROPA mainly
between 02-04Z and remain gusting to 25kt. LLWS will shift and
remain likely much of the night.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR, NW wind.

Wednesday night. VFR. Light NW wind becoming calm.

Thursday...VFR, except possibly briefly MVFR over far northern
Maine. Light S wind.

Thursday night...VFR. Light S wind.

Friday...VFR. Light S wind.

Friday night...VFR south, MVFR north. Light S wind.

Saturday...VFR to MVFR south. MVFR north. Light S wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory in effect this afternoon as S
winds increase 15-25kt. Gusts to 30kt this afternoon. Winds will
shift NW after a cold front this evening/overnight. Winds will
remain gusting up to 30kt. Seas today are building and max out
5-7ft tonight on the Coastal Waters and 2-4ft on the Intra-
Coastal waters.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will continue Wednesday into midday for NW winds gusting
up to 30 kt. Winds should drop below SCA Wednesday afternoon and
remain below SCA through Saturday. Winds will increase to SCA
Saturday night then a gale on Sunday along with building seas,
rain and fog, as a strong occlusion pushes in from the west.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Brennan/Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Brennan/Sinko/Bloomer