618
FXUS61 KCAR 131759
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
159 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly pass through Maine from northwest to
southeast tonight and Thursday. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada through Friday night, and moves off to
the east Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday.
High pressure builds in from the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A northern stream trough slowly builds over the area through
Thursday then exits to the east Thursday night. Ahead of the
trough axis will some mainly scattered showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. Noting storm motion of 10-15kt,
precipitable waters of 1 2/3 to 1 9/10 of an inch, and freezing
levels around 13-14 kft supporting warm rain process, there is
the potentially for locally heavy rainfall with any stronger
convection. Given this, could see localized ponding of water in
roadways/low lying areas in locations experiencing heavy
rainfall.

Shear is limiting factor for any strong to severe
storms, with under 20kt of bulk shear not conducive for strong
gusty winds and the high freezing level not very supportive of
hail. Showers/thunderstorms will tapper off from NW to SE
starting Thursday morning in the far NW to Thursday evening
across far east Downeast Maine.

Lows tonight should be from around 60 to the mid 60s. This is
around 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday should range
from the middle 70s to middle 80s, generally about 10-15
degrees lower than today, except near the immediate coast, where
it should be about the same. This is around 5 degrees above
normal. Lows Thursday night should be around 5-10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will crest over the region Friday night.
This will mean clear skies and calm winds, ideal for radiational
cooling. Thus, decided to go lower than NBM guidance for low
temperatures Friday night. Some of the colder valleys in the North
Woods could see lows in the upper 30s. Elsewhere, expect lows in the
40s from the Katahdin region northward, and 50s to the south. Return
southerly flow sets up Saturday as the high retreats eastward. Warm
air advection will ensure, with 850mb temperatures rising to 12-14C.
With ample sunshine expect highs in the lower to mid 80s inland,
and 70s at the coast. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the
50s to near 60 degrees as clouds increase from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region from northwest to
southeast Sunday. Ahead of the front, it will be warm and humid,
though not to the extent of recent days. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely in the afternoon as the front passes through. There
remains uncertainty with the timing of the front and available
instability. As a result, leaned on NBM guidance during this time.
Also, confidence remains low on the strength of any thunderstorms.
Much cooler and less humid behind the front early next week as
Canadian high pressure builds in. Depending on decoupling, some
colder northern valleys could see some patchy frost Monday night.
However, confidence in this outcome remains low at this time.
Regardless, below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for
at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR to start the TAF period. A period of MVFR late
tonight/early Thursday morning just ahead of the front at
northern terminals and KBHB. KBHB should see IFR conditions
develop this evening then LIFR/VLIFR conditions overnight. All
terminals should improve to VFR by mid morning to around midday
on Thursday. Winds become light and variable throughout
tonight. Northern terminals should see NW winds increase to
around 10kt and possibly become gusty towards the end of the TAF
period.

Thursday afternoon/night...VFR. NW-N winds G15-20KT possible in
the afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM:
Friday-Saturday Night..Mainly VFR. Light and variable winds
Friday night, becoming S 5-15 kts Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Brief IFR or lower possible PM with SHRA
and isolated to scattered TSRA. S winds 5-10 kts early, switching to
NW from north to south during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should
limit sustained winds to 10 kt or less and resulting seas to 3
ft or less through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through this weekend and into early next week. SW
wind gusts could approach 20 kts on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible in some locations
again today. Yesterday was the third straight day that the
temperature at Caribou reached 90 degrees or higher. With the
temperature once again expected to reach the 90 degree mark
again today, that will tie the record for the most consecutive
90 degree days at Caribou.

Record Highs temperatures for today Aug 13:

Caribou: 92 in 2021, tied at 92 158pm this afternoon
Houlton: 91 in 2021, forecast high 92
Millinocket: 95 in 2002, forecast high 93
Bangor: 95 in 2002, forecast high 91

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001-002-005-
     006-011-015>017-031-032.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Maloit
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Maloit/Clark
Marine...Maloit/Clark
Climate...Maloit