409
FXUS61 KCAR 132255
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
655 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of high pressure will move south of Nova Scotia
tonight into Thursday remaining in control of our weather. A
front crosses the region late Friday into Saturday. A storm
system crosses over the area on Saturday night and tracks into
the Maritimes Sunday evening.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...
Surface high pressure moves southeast of Nova Scotia tonight.
Aloft, an upper level disturbance tracks north of the region
early tonight with upper level ridging building across the
region late. High/mid level clouds with the upper disturbance
will bring partly/mostly cloudy skies to northern areas early
tonight, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies overnight. Expect
mostly clear skies Downeast tonight. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the lower to mid 40s north, to around 40 to the
lower 40s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and
clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Tomorrow the 700mb high pushes out over the Gulf of Maine and
winds turn SW aloft and expecting warm surge into the area.
925mb temps warm to between +12C and +15C under mostly sunny
skies. Expecting a sea breeze to develop mid morning mainly
along the Downeast coast and spills northward to the Route 9
corridor. Expecting highs generally in the 50s at the shoreline,
low 60s along Route 1 and upper 60s along Route 9. Low 70s for
the Bangor Region and upper 70s for the Central Highlands to
Southern Aroostook County. The SW winds, sunshine and warm 925mb
temps support low 80s across much of Northern Maine with near
record temperatures at Caribou expected. Will continue to watch
some fire danger concerns as afternoon RHs drop to 30-35% north
of the Route 6 corridor, RHs 40-60% south of Route 6 will keep
things in check. Given the 10-15mph winds, low RHs, dry fine
fuels and warm temperatures across the north will need to watch
conditions.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging expected Wednesday night before it starts to break down
Thursday afternoon. Isolated showers will move into swrn portions of
the CWA over wrn areas late in the afternoon. With cloud cover
moving in on Thursday temps will be slightly lower than on
Wednesday. Instability may be enuf to get isolated thunder to
develop over the northwest and have included in the fcst.

Thursday night will see showers diminish with sunset. Temps will dip
into the 50s overnight with patchy fog possible along the coast in
humid airmass. Occluded front will approach with sfc low moving into
the upper Midwest. Showers increase in coverage in the afternoon
along with thunderstorms over all but southern and eastern areas.
Given clouds and showery weather temps will remain lower than recent
days but still 10 degrees above seasonal normal.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Occluded front moves through Friday night and Saturday morning
with rainfall becoming likely as it does. Temps on Saturday will
lower back toward more normal values and even slightly below
normal for eastern areas. Another boundary moves through
Saturday night with triple point forming just off of the
Downeast coast. This keeps rain over the area on Sunday but
depending on how quickly it moves into eastern Canada will
determine when rain will end as showers.

After system passes to our east bringing below normal
temperatures through the end of the period.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight through Wednesday.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. South/southwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night-Thursday night...Mainly VFR. SW 5-10kts becoming
light S Thu night.

Friday-Sunday...MVFR with ocnl IFR in showers. Tstms northern
terminals Fri afternoon. SE 5-10kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Wednesday. Sea surface temperatures currently 42-44F
from the Downeast coast out 25nm and East to the Hague Line
including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through the weekend. Patchy fog may reduce visibilities through
the period.
&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Wednesday, May 14th,
at some locations in Aroostook County. Records are unlikely to
be broken further south where record highs are warmer.

May 14th Record High Temperatures (Forecast):

Caribou (83F)               83F in 2022
Houlton (78F)               85F in 1961
Millinocket (80F)           91F in 2022
Bangor (72F)                91F in 2022
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Norcross/Buster
Marine...Norcross/Sinko/Buster
Climate...Sinko