975
FXUS61 KCAR 021339
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
939 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south today. A weak trough of low
pressure crosses the area tonight, followed by a cold front
approaching later Sunday. The cold front weakens as it slowly
pushes south through the region from late Sunday night into
Monday evening. High pressure then builds toward the region from
the northwest through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9AM Update...Looking at high resolution models - it appears that
convective chances this afternoon will only be isolated in
nature, so restricted pops to reflect this. Do have some concern
that best threat for showers might end up a bit farther S than
currently show things for this evening. Will see if 12z runs
support what 6z NAM/CMC and early CAMS suggest. Otherwise the
forecast appears on track.

Previous Discussion...
1030mb surface high over Wisconsin as of
05z tonight with ridge sprawling into ern Canada has resulted in
light north winds at higher elevations while lower elevations
have decoupled. Temps have bottomed out over North Woods with
some locales approaching the u30s, very similar to what happened
last night. Global CMC bias- corrected seems to have the best
handle on temp drop this morning and have hedged twd those
numbers with low-middle 40s across the north for lows while
southern areas dip into the lwr 50s just before sunrise.
Radiational cooling will allow river valley fog to form through
the morning hours.

Skies start out sunny this morning with clouds increasing
across the north in the afternoon as wave approaches. Shortwave
currently located over James Bay will be dropping south and
bring an isolated shower or storm to the St. John Valley this
afternoon. Wave not progged to move into NB until after 03z this
evening and have maintained isolated showers acrs the north for
this reason.

By Saturday evening smoky skies from Canadian Wildfires will begin
to the move into the area and have included haze mention in the
forecast for central and northern areas overnight. Min temps wil be
near to slightly below normal as winds shift around from the
southwest.

Cold front will be located well to our north by 12z Sunday with
westerly flow at the surface and aloft bringing more smoke in from
Canada. Models indicating more surface smoke vs aloft for Sunday and
have mentioned smoke in the forecast, mainly for areas north of a
line from the Central Highlands into southern Aroostook.

Forcing from front dropping twd the area may result in showers and
storms acrs the St. John Valley Sunday afternoon in increasingly
unstable airmass. However, may need to back off on timing of
convection as front movement has slowed over the past several model
runs. Temps warm into the 80s ahead of the front as H8 temps warm to
near +15C in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night: The cold front is expected to enter the region
pushing showers into the north. Models are in good agreement
with the front weakening by the time it enters into the state.
The lose of diurnal heating will also decrease rain chances into
the night. Temps should be in the upper 50s.

Monday: The cold front should be through the north and into the
Central Highlands by the morning. Temps should be mainly
affected in the north with the early frontal passage. Expected
temps in the north in the mid 70s. The front should be
completely out of the region by the evening. The south is
expected to remain warm throughout the day with the S winds.
Expect temps in the mid 80s.

Monday night: High pressure should settle back into the region.
Mainly clear skies should drop temps into the low 50s to upper
40s. Patchy fog is possible with the cooler temps and calm
winds, but confidence is low at those point, so did not include
in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure is expected to stay in the area for the rest of
week, leading to seasonal normal temps and mostly sunny skies.
Models are very inconsistent for the weekend and the beginning
of text week. As of this update, the weekend looks to be fairly
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Low chance of a shower or storm
over northern Aroostook sites but not included due to very low
confidence.

SHORT TERM: Sun night...Brief MVFR early in the north due to -SHRA.
The VFR for all terminals for the rest of the night. SW winds
around 5 kts.

Mon...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR in slight chance -SHRA. WNW
winds 5-10 kts.

Mon night-Wed...VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas remain well below small craft advisory
levels through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
this time period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Maloit
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Buster/Maloit/LaFlash
Marine...Buster/Maloit/LaFlash