162
FXUS61 KCAR 160750
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
250 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks up into New Brunswick today, and continues
north through the Maritimes tonight through Monday. The low
will continue north across Labrador on Tuesday. High pressure
will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday. Low
approaches from the west on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message 1...Accumulating snow across northern areas today
into early Monday.

Low pressure will track east along the coast today and then
intensify as it heads into New Brunswick province tonight. The
highest snow totals are expected to be across the North Maine Woods
where the atmospheric column remains cold enough for all snow.
Accumulations there are expected to generally range from 5 to 9
inches by Monday morning. Cant totally rule out some locally
higher amounts. But since these locally higher amounts are
expected to be in the remote North Maine Woods, decided to stay
the course with an advisory there versus warning.

Snow amounts to the east of Route 11 are a bit more uncertain,
since if the low tracks a bit farther west, milder air from the
Canadian Maritimes could be drawn in along the Maine/New
Brunswick border. This would allow for a snow/rain mix at times
which could keep snow amounts down a bit. Todays snow is
expected to be of a more wet and heavy nature.

Across the Bangor region and Downeast areas, precipitation is
expected to start as a brief period of snow this morning before
quickly changing to rain as temperatures rise in advance of the
low. Cant totally rule out a quick inch of snow in the Bangor
region early this morning before the change over. Drier air
working in behind the low should allow the steadier
precipitation in the Bangor region and Downeast areas to taper
to rain or snow showers later this afternoon. Cant rule out a
light snow accumulation in the Bangor region tonight as a few
snow showers are expected in the wake of the departing low.

Afternoon high temperatures this afternoon will range from the
lower to mid 30s across the north and upper 30s to lower 40s
for the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Lows tonight are
expected to range from the upper 20s to around 30.

Key Message 2...Any morning snow across the north on Monday
tapers off to scattered snow showers with gusty Northwest winds
as high as 35 mph at times.

Low pressure drifts northeast through the Canadian Maritime
Provinces with gusty Northwest winds expected in its wake. Scattered
snow showers are still possible across northern areas through
Monday morning, but little in the way of additional snow
accumulation is expected. Due to the rather west and sticky
character of Sundays snowfall blowing snow is not expected to
be a big factor on Monday despite the gusty Northwest winds.
After noon highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s for the Bangor region and
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Point:

* Gusty winds Monday night thru Tuesday

Low pressure system in New Brunswick continues to track north
further into the Canada, while a high pressure system to the
south keeps a tight pressure gradient over the area through
Tuesday. Expecting wind gusts around 20-25 mph throughout the
state. With low placement to the north, anticipating some wrap-
around snow showers in the Crown of Maine and far western Maine
Monday night through Tuesday. Little to no additional
accumulation expected with these showers, however. Looking at
overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 20s throughout the region
Monday night. With elevated winds however, temperatures will
feel like the upper-teens.

During the day Tuesday, continued snow showers lift through the
Crown of Maine. Daytime highs in the far north reach mid-30s.
The rest of Aroostook county and central Maine will rise into
the mid-30s, and Downeast will rise in to the upper-30s to
low-40s. Westerly wind gusts still elevated, around 25-30 mph
during the day. With this departing low-pressure system, there
is a chance for some upper-level shortwaves to stem off the low
and provide some additional instability and lift, but little
additional moisture is able to support precipitation.


By Tuesday night, low tracks north away from Maine as high
pressure builds over the region. Mostly overcast skies.
Overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Point:
*Next system approaches Friday. Snow in morning, that
transitions to rain during the day.

High pressure persists through Thursday, with dry and
cloudy conditions. Next low pressure system pushes in by Friday.
Current forecast uncertainty resides in the timing of this
system, with the GFS model showing a faster solution. The low
system tracks farther north, with most precipitation falling
Friday into Friday night. The EURO, however, has a slower moving
system with a deeper trough, that slowly moves north of Maine
Friday through Saturday. The GFS is a drier solution, keeping
QPFs around a quarter of an inch, while the EURO is wetter, with
QPFs up to an inch in some spots. The consistency, however, is
that this system will approach from the west and move north of
the state. Precipitation expected to begin as snow inland, as
temperatures linger below freezing. Once daybreak occurs,
however, snow transitions over to rainfall, which would persist
throughout the rest of the day. Overall, high temperatures in
the 30s and low 40s. Overnight low temperatures in the 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...Widespread IFR conditions are expected at
the terminals through tonight in snow, possibly mixed with rain
at times late this afternoon and evening. E to NE wind around
10 kt today today, becoming N tonight.

Outlook for Monday...MVFR. Scattered snow showers. Gusty NW wind.

KBGR/KBHB...Conditions will deteriorate to IFR later this morning
through early afternoon in rain, possibly beginning as snow early
this morning. Conditions will improve to MVFR late this
afternoon through tonight with scattered snow/rain showers
possible. N to NE wind 5 to 10 mph today becoming west tonight.

Outlook for Monday...VFR. Gusty NW wind.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night - Tuesday: MVFR overnight at northern terminals
with snow showers, transitioning over to VFR by afternoon. VFR
at Downeast terminals. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25
kts.

Tuesday Night - Thursday: VFR across all terminals. W winds
around 5-10 kts, that then become SW and light by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have transitioned to a Gale Warning for the
outerwaters late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Have
issued a Small Craft Advisory for the intra coastal waters late
this afternoon through early Tuesday morning.


SHORT TERM: Gale Warning will remain in effect through Monday
night, with elevated gusts and seas persisting through Tuesday.
SCA conditions follow this Gale Warning into Tuesday night,
with a few gusts up to 33kts possible and seas up to 8ft over
the outer waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ001-003-
     004-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MEZ002-005-
     006.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...TWD/ASB
Marine...TWD/ASB