220
FXUS61 KCAR 170307
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1107 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area overnight. A cold
front will cross the region Thursday into Friday. High pressure
returns on Saturday. Another front approaches from the north on
Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Based on satellite imagery and observations, have issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for the Downeast coast through 8 AM Thursday
with this update. Observations indicate widespread visibilities
of a quarter mile or less from Bar Harbor to Eastport which
will persist overnight. Satellite imagery indicates the fog is
expanding northward into the interior Downeast region, which
could require that the Dense Fog Advisory eventually be expanded
to include the interior Downeast region. Otherwise, generally
expect mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast
area overnight with only patchy fog possible. Low temperatures
will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across the
forecast area. Have also updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and
clouds.

Previous Discussion...
For Thursday, the large low pressure system center will track
NE across the St Lawrence as the cold front approaches the
region. High res models are in good agreement with morning
showers developing across the North Woods. As the prefrontal
boundary moves into the area, rain showers chances increase,
especially across the north. The concern for Thursday is the
amount of instability increasing in the north during the
afternoon. The prefrontal boundary and the morning sunshine will
provide the lift for the convection. As convection increases,
CAPE values reach above 1000 J/kg, low and mid level lapse rates
steepen, and bulk shear values increase. In addition, PWATs
will increase well above normal values to also 2 inches at
certain times. Due to the concern for strong thunderstorms and
possible flooding, decided to include the heavy rain and gusty
winds for any thunderstorms that develop.

For Thursday night, showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue in the evening and early night as the cold front
advances. Models indicate the system intensifying before
midnight, thus increasing the speed of the front. After
midnight, the front will exit to the SE which should clear out
the rain showers and any patchy fog left from the night. The
region should see temps cooling with the W flow during the early
morning hours on Friday.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be well offshore Friday morning with possible wrap-
around showers lingering across the north for a few hours until
upper trof passes into Canada. Skies clear and become sunny around
lunchtime. Northwest winds appear to be strongest in the morning
under tight pressure gradient, weakening by afternoon as sfc low
heads into the Maritimes. Dewpoints will drop into the 40s/50s acrs
the north in the morning and over Downeast mid-late afternoon
making for a much more comfortable day.

For Friday night clear skies and light winds will promote optimal
cooling conditions with mins in the 50s area-wide. Saturday will see
temps warm into the 70s all areas, possibly into the lower 80s
over interior Downeast. Dewpoints remain comfortable in the 50s
with sfc winds out of the southwest. Cold front dropping south
out of Canada looks to remain north of the St. Lawrence Seaway
thru Saturday evening.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will drop into CWA late Saturday night and should move
thru during the afternoon. Showers, and storms in the afternoon,
will be possible per latest guidance for Sunday afternoon. High
pressure will be building in Monday into Tuesday before sfc high
builds offshore late Tuesday night. Temps will moderate early in
the week before climbing back above normal on Wednesday ahead of
the next system.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals: Generally VFR overnight through
early Thursday. Variable conditions with showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
South/southwest winds around 5 knots overnight, then 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday. South/southwest winds
10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest Thursday night.

BGR: LIFR/VLIFR conditions develop overnight then persist into
Thursday morning. Variable conditions with showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
South/southwest winds around 5 knots overnight, then 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday. South/southwest winds
10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest Thursday night.

BHB: LIFR/VLIFR overnight into Thursday morning. Variable
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and
heavy rain. South/southwest winds around 5 knots overnight,
then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday.
South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest
Thursday night.

SHORT TERM:
Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW 5-15kts Fri becoming WSW 5-10kts Sat
morning.

Saturday night-Sunday night...VFR decreasing to MVFR late Sat
night from north to south as showers move in. Possible tstms
Sunday afternoon bringing brief IFR. SW 5-10kts becoming NW
5-10kts Sunday evening.

Monday...VFR. NW 5-15kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels overnight through Thursday night. Patchy/areas of fog
overnight through Thursday night. Scattered showers Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: No headlines expected through the weekend. Seas
generally range from 1 to 3 feet over all waters.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Norcross/LaFlash/Buster
Marine...Norcross/Buster