064
FXUS61 KCAR 021420
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure quickly pushes east this morning. A coastal low
approaches from the southwest this afternoon, passes offshore
tonight, then exits into the southern Canadian Maritimes on
Wednesday. An Arctic cold front crosses the region on Thursday
with high pressure building in for Friday. Another cold front
approaches from the northwest on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:20AM UPDATE...KCBW and KGYX radar data showing bands of
precipitation pushing through the southern 2/3rd of the CWA.
Much of the boundary layer is dry and precip is overcoming the
dry air and producing precip while other areas are seeing Virga.
Maine DOT cameras showing Route 6 in Monson snow covered and
starting to see other roads get covered where precip is
beginning. Given this opted to push the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory to begin immediately. Precipitation will
increase through the afternoon. Warm air continues to be a
concern in the forecast and will push inland along the Downeast
coast expecting wet heavy snow that will eventually go over to
rain. As winds increase any snow loaded trees or powerlines may
snap and cause issues this evening. Made adjustments to the
ongoing forecast based on trends in hi-res guidance and
observations.

Previous Discussion...
Key Messages
-Noreaster Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring heavy snowfall
 to Downeast and Bangor Region

The noreaster will track across New England today and move over
the waters by the afternoon. The weak warm front boundary will
stretch to the north of the state this morning, bringing light
onshore winds. This will affect the coastal temps, keeping them
just above freezing today. By the afternoon, the beginning of
the snow will move into the region. Winds will shift to the NE
and cooler temps will move into the area. Snow amounts during
the day should be around 2 to 3 inches across the entire warning
and advisory areas. By tonight, the center of the noreaster
will intensify as it crosses the waters. Heavier snow amounts
will shift to the south with snow rate up to 1 inch per hour.
With the intensifying low, the pressure gradients will tighten
causing N winds to increase, especially in the south. There is a
concern for blowing snow during the early morning hours of
Wednesday.

By Wednesday, the system will pick up speed and exit the area
in the morning. Brief surface ridging will move in, calming
winds and clearing skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Points:
* Arctic cold front on Thursday could lead to the development of
  snow squalls, limiting visibility and impacting the Thursday
  evening commute.
* Flash freeze possible behind Thursday front with temperatures
  dropping from above freezing down into the teens in a couple
  of hours.
* Very cold Thursday night with wind chills 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

Discussion:
The backside of a narrow ridge of high pressure will push
through the area Wednesday night. Southwest return flow and
increasing cloud cover ahead of the next low pressure system
will help keep temperatures from dropping too far, though lows
may still bottom out in the teens to lower 20s.

For Thursday, an arctic cold front will quickly move through
from west to east, and the FROPA will likely line up with peak
diurnal heating. The front will provide enough destabilization
for convective snow showers to develop. Additionally, a
tightened pressure gradient aloft behind the boundary could lead
to gusty winds with these showers. Forecast CAPE from GFS
profiles in the north of around 30 J/kg, and steep low level
lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km both support the potential for snow
squall development. 850 mb winds could easily reach 30 to 35 kts
aloft, but taper off below this level. The height of the mixed
layer will play a big role in whether or not gusts in snow
showers reach snow squall criteria. That said, ingredients
remain favorable for isolated moderate to heavy snow showers,
which could rapidly decrease visibility and cause hazard to
traffic, especially into the evening commute on Thursday.
Additionally, temperatures may quickly drop behind the front,
which could lead to a flash freeze scenario over most of the CWA
behind Thursday high temps of 32 to 40 degrees. Temperatures
could suddenly drop into the teens behind the front in a matter
of a couple hours.

Winds will linger into Thursday night with persistent cold air
advection, with wind chills dropping to 10 to 20 degrees below
zero. Wind chills may approach advisory criteria in the Central
Highlands overnight Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Point:
* Cold weather continues on Friday.

Discussion:
High pressure returns to the forecast area on Friday into the
weekend. Cold weather established by the shift to an arctic air
mass on Friday will lead to high temperatures struggling to
escape the teens across the CWA. Combined with lingering wind,
wind chills on Friday may remain in the single digits above zero
at best through Friday afternoon, making Friday potentially the
coldest day of the season so far.

Fair weather continues through the weekend as temperatures
rebound towards seasonal average. Another shortwave may move
through the region Sunday into early next week, which will be
the next chance for snow in the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions this morning. Then decreasing
to MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby by the afternoon when the snow moves in.
LIFR conditions are possible. Mainly IFR conditions tonight.
Conditions should improve to VFR by late Wednesday morning.
Today, light and variable winds. Tonight, N winds 5-15 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts. Wednesday, WNW winds 5-10 kts.


SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...VFR, falling to MVFR cigs. S winds 5 to 10
kts.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR cigs. Brief IFR/LIFR vis in afternoon snow
showers, particularly across northern terminals. SW winds
shifting W 10 to 15 kts with gusts increasing to 20 to 25 kts.
Isolated gusts to 30 kts in any heavier snow showers.

Thursday night...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. WNW winds 10 to 15
kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Friday...VFR. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR cigs, low end chance of IFR. S winds
5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA today. Then
winds increase quickly tonight from SCA to gale force. Winds
will decrease below SCA on Wednesday, but seas will remain at
SCA for all of Wednesday.


SHORT TERM: Winds will begin to increase with the passage of a
front on Thursday, with gale force winds through the day on
Thursday. Gusts could approach storm force Thursday evening
before decreasing into the day on Friday. Seas could increase to
6 to 9 ft with this feature. Rapidly dropping temperatures
Thursday night into Friday could lead to a chance for freezing
spray.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ARL/JS
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...ARL/JS/AES
Marine...ARL/JS/AES