315
FXUS61 KCAR 201320
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
820 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today through early Friday.
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night then exit
across the Maritimes Saturday. High pressure crosses the region
Sunday. Low pressure will cross the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

820 AM Update...Adjusted sky forecast to account for relatively
sunny skies over much of the area with the exception of some low
clouds over west/central Maine.

High pressure will cross the region today through tonight. An
occluded front will also begin to cross western Quebec province
later tonight. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies across
northern areas today, with mostly sunny skies Downeast. Clouds
will increase tonight. The occlusion will approach western
portions of the forecast area later Friday. A light snow/rain
mix will expand across northern/central portions of the
forecast area Friday. Across Downeast areas expect mostly
cloudy skies early Friday, with a slight chance of light rain
during the afternoon. High temperatures today will range from
the mid 30s north to around 40 north to the lower 40s Downeast.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens to
around 20 north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High
temperatures Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s north,
to the lower to mid 40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will lift north through Quebec Friday night as high
pressure begins to build in from the west. This will bring a breezy
night with any rain or snow showers tapering off. High pressure
continuing to build in on Saturday will result in a partly cloudy
sky over the north with Downeast mostly sunny in Downsloping. High
pressure will crest to our southwest Saturday night. The gradient on
the northeastern side of the high will likely result in a westerly
breeze continuing Saturday night under a clear to partly cloudy
sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be to our south on Sunday as a weak occlusion
approaches from the west. This occlusion will bring increasing
clouds late Sunday followed by a chance for a bit of light snow
Sunday night into Monday, mainly central and north. Models
currently differ on snow amounts with the GFS carrying just an
open wave across which would give a dusting to up to an inch
across the north. The ECMWF, however, forms a low to our
southeast Monday night which would give the potential for up to
a few inches of snow across the area.

The shortwave and any associated lows would move east and away late
Monday into Monday night. Any lingering snow would taper off
followed by partial clearing and a gusty westerly breeze. High
pressure should build over on Tuesday bringing a partly sunny and
seasonable day Tuesday.

Looking ahead to mid-week next week, a new low lifting north from
the Great Lakes will have an occlusion extending southeast to
another low near Southern New England on Wednesday. This has the
potential to bring snow or rain north and rain Downeast on
Wednesday. Currently models differ considerably on how cold this
system will be. The ECMWF is coldest bringing snow to central
and northern areas. The GFS is a bit warmer with snow over the
far north and rain elsewhere, and the Canadian is warmest
suggesting rain for most of the area. Precipitation type may
depend on how quickly the secondary low forms.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas expect VFR conditions today
through early tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings then possible later
tonight through early Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions then develop
Friday afternoon with a light snow/rain mix. Across Downeast
areas, expect VFR conditions today through early Friday.
VFR/MVFR conditions then later Friday with a slight chance of
light rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots today. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast tonight. South/southeast
winds around 10 knots Friday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...VFR south, MVFR north. SW winds 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday...VFR. NW winds around 10 kt.

Saturday night...VFR. NW winds around 10 kt.

Sunday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north. W winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday night...MVFR to IFR north. VFR south. W winds 10 kt.

Monday...IFR becoming VFR north. MVFR south, becoming VFR late. NW
winds around 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Friday.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed for the offshore waters Friday
night through Saturday night for winds gusting up to 25 kt.
Another SCA may be needed late Monday into Monday night. Seas
around 4 ft Friday night into Saturday subsiding to 2 to 3 ft
Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM/CN
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...SM/CN/MB
Marine...SM/CN/MB