184
FXUS61 KCAR 222340
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
740 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into the Gulf of Maine tonight...track
across the Downeast coast on Friday...and stall over Eastern
Maine on Saturday. The low will weaken and track into the
Maritimes Sunday followed by high pressure Monday. Another low
pressure moves in late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7:40 PM Update...Updated the Aviation section to reflect the
00z TAFs. Otherwise, forecast remains on track at this time.

Previous Discussion...
The Noreaster will continue to track across the New England
coast and into the Gulf Of Maine tonight. The main concern for
tonight will be the winds as the tightening pressure gradient on
the north side of the low move in. Though the entire region
will be breezy, coastal Downeast will see the majority of the
higher winds. A Wind Advisory has been issued in this area for
tonight into Friday morning. Due to the winds being offshore and
mainly from the NE and the highest surge during low tide,
coastal flooding is not a concern with this Noreaster. However,
some guidance indicates possible overwash in some areas due to
high waves, so caution is advised. Rain will continue throughout
the night with high res QPF models indicating around a half
inch of rainfall in the south.

By Friday, the Noreaster will turn NE with most high res models
showing the center of the low moving across Washington county.
The NE flow will keep temps in the 40s across the region. Upper
air model soundings show a very moist column with temps reaching
to around freezing at 925mb. This indicates that snow is
possible in the higher terrain above 1500 ft. Mt Katahdin could
see up to 6 inches of snow by the end of the day. Winds will
gradually decrease into the afternoon with the low passing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday evening the low will be occluded and vertically
stacked which will result in the system slowing down as it moves
north through the Downeast region and eventually through New
Brunswick by the end of the weekend. The slow system motion will
result in precipitation lingering throughout the weekend,
especially towards the north, as moisture continues to wrap
around the low. Some fog is also possible Friday and Saturday
night along the Downeast region and North Woods once winds, and
therefore mixing, decrease.

Northerly flow behind the departing low to the east will cause
cooler air to flow into the region from Canada resulting in
temperatures in the 40s for much of the area on Saturday. The
cold air may also allow for some wet snow at the higher
elevations Friday night. Some global ensemble members as well as
the GFS and NAM want to bring snow into some of the lower
elevations but did not have the confidence to add this into the
forecast. A few flurries at the lower elevations cannot be ruled
out though.

On Sunday, a few lingering showers persist over the north with
skies remaining mostly cloudy. Temperatures should be warmer,
likely reaching the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Behind the departing low, high pressure should begin to build in
on Monday and persist through Tuesday. This should lead to
mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the 60s on Monday
and 70s Tuesday. Another low pressure system is expected to
approach the region late next week but models are still
expressing uncertainty regarding its intensity and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Southern Terminals: VFR through 03-04z. Then deteriorating to
IFR by around 06z with RA and low cigs. LLWS after 03-04z,
continuing through Friday. E-NE winds 10-20 kts. Gusts 25-35 kts
at BGR tonight through Friday AM. Gusts 40-45 kts possible at
Downeast terminals 03z-15z. Winds diminish Friday PM.

Northern Terminals: VFR through 07-08z tonight. Then MVFR
through 12-13z with -RA and low cigs. Thereafter, mainly IFR
with some brief low MVFR possible with -RA. LLWS developing from
south to north 08-12z, and continuing through Friday. NE winds
10-15 kts. Gusts 20-25 kts possible late tonight into Friday AM.


SHORT TERM:

Friday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low ceilings and
rain. Fog may develop overnight, reducing visibility. Winds from
the NE at 5 to 10 kts for northern terminals. W winds 5 to 10
kts for southern terminals.

Saturday - Saturday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low
ceilings and rain showers. Rain gradually begins to diminish
overnight, earlier for southern terminals. Patchy fog possible
in the morning hours. NE winds become N overnight for northern
terminals at 5 to 10 kts. NW winds 5 to 10 kts for southern
terminals.

Sunday - Sunday Night...MVFR conditions due to rain showers,
particularly for northern terminals, which gradually taper off
in the evening. VFR conditions overnight except for possible
patchy fog for southern terminals. Light winds from the NW at
5 to 10 kts.

Monday - Tuesday...VFR conditions. Winds from the NW at 5-10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning has been issued for tonight into
Friday morning. Winds decrease to SCA levels late Friday morning
until Friday night. Seas 7-13 ft.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas decrease below SCA levels by Saturday
morning and remain below SCA levels through early next week. SW
winds 10 to 15 kts Friday night become NW at 5 to 10 kts
through Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/LaFlash
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...Clark/LaFlash/Melanson
Marine...Clark/LaFlash/Melanson