460
FXUS61 KCAR 230711
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
311 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lift north over the area today as high pressure
drifts over the Gulf of Maine waters. A cold front will slowly
approach from the west through Sunday night, then cross the
region Monday and Monday night, as its parent low passes well to
the north. An upper level low remains over the area on Tuesday.
Brief high pressure nudges into the area on Wednesday before
another cold front approaches from the NW on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Before daybreak a few showers are expected across the North
Woods into the St. John Valley in response to weak 500mb energy
pivoting northeastward across Northern Maine. Not expecting much
than a trace or a few hundreths of accumulation.

A warm front is lifting north today as the surface high
pressure drifts over the Gulf of Maine. 850mb temps
significantly warm up in response and southerly winds increase
with 850mb temps +13 to +14C. Expecting widespread 80s today
with 80-84F north, 82-86F for the Central Highlands, Bangor
region. The cool spots will be the Downeast given the strong
southerly winds off the cold Gulf of Maine Waters. Highs here
top out in the 70s with 60s on the the islands. Deep mixing up
to 775mb expected today with 15-20kt of wind being tapped to
transfer down to the surface. RHs will drop especially away from
the seabreeze in the Central Highlands, Moosehead Region to
the Crown. RHs will be higher today compared to yesterday thanks
to the southerly winds. Given the ongoing dry and drought
conditions combined with warm temperatures, lower RHs and gusty
winds there is a fire weather concern, see the fire weather
section for more details. The St. John Valley might see a few
isolated showers but mainly dry today with a mix of sun and
clouds areawide.

Tonight, a large surface storm system tracking into James Bay
will drag a cold front into the St. Lawrence region of Quebec.
500mb energy will be increasing ahead of the front and expecting
an area of PVA to align with the Maine/Quebec border overnight.
Isolated to scattered showers will develop along the boarder but
the eastward progression will significantly slow down. Southerly
winds will relax some overnight with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and temperatures falling back into the 50s and 60s.

Sunday expecting partly sunny skies with the cold front creeping
eastward over Quebec and Vermont. High temperatures will top out
in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations expect low 70s at
the shoreline. Winds aloft at 925-850mb will be increasing to
25-30kt and we will once again mix deep to 850mb and transfer
these winds down to the surface. Expecting southerly winds
10-15mph with widespread gusts 20-30mph along and east of the
Longfellow Mtns including the Crown to Bangor region and
Downeast. RHs will bottom out in the afternoon higher than
Saturday but given the ongoing dry conditions fire weather
concerns remain into Sunday. Showers will slowly drift east
across Northern Maine into the afternoon extending back to the
Moosehead Region. A few thunderstorms are possible especially in
the North Woods. Highest concentration of showers will be across
the North Woods near the Quebec border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upr lvl trof will be over the Great Lakes with H5 low sitting up
over James Bay Sunday evening. At the sfc occluding low located
over James Bay with cold front extending down into the spine of
the Appalachians will be bringing moisture into nw portions of
the area with pw values increasing to btwn 1.25 to 1.50 inches.
Cold front will slowly creep twd the area Sunday night while at
the same time sfc low pressure will be moving along the eastern
seaboard. At this time most of the medium range guidance is
drifting low pressure a little further to the left from it/s
prior track. If this track continues in later runs this may
bring more rain to Downeast, which is desperately needed. While
at the same time the sou/easter may end up inhibiting moisture
from moving inland over the CWA and given model trends have
bumped qpf up over sern zones while lowering qpf over the North
Woods. Based on this marginal risk for excessive rainfall has
been removed for the area in collaboration with WPC.

With marginal instability have capped thunder chcs at 30% for the
North Woods early to mid-afternoon on Monday. With cloudy skies and
southerly flow mins Sunday night likely to remain right around 60F
with patchy fog developing over the entire area. Humid airmass
continues on Monday, which will put a brief pause on fire weather
concerns, with highs in the low-mid 70s.

Cold front looks to move thru Monday night bringing low temps back
closer to normal in the 50s. This also brings lower dwpts back into
play with fire wx concerns increasing toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Hit and miss showers look to occur through Thursday with ocnl s/wvs
zipping through zonal flow. 00z guidance differs on evolution of H5
trof and/or closed low toward the end of next week. Overall temps
for the long term look to average below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BCFG possible at terms this AM not expecting vsby
reductions. VFR conditions today. S winds this morning becoming
gusty today 10-20kt, BGR and BHB may see brief 25kt gusts. Winds
will become light this evening S 5-10kt but LLWS likely due to
increasing winds aloft. Tonight, VFR. Cannot rule out BCFG but
confidence is low. Sunday expecting VFR. S winds 10-15kt gusting
20-30kt at times. LLWS likely. VCSH/VCTS at FVE, CAR and PQI
in the late afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night-Monday...MVFR/IFR possible in showers and patchy fog.
LLWS possible Sunday night. S 5-15kts, gusting to 20kts.

Monday night...MVFR/IFR, improving to VFR late over northern
terminals. S 5-10kts becoming W late.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. W 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 8PM
tomorrow evening for long period swells. Seas are subsiding to
5-7ft today with periods generally 10-14 seconds. S winds may
gust up to 20kt today on the outer coastal waters. Swells will
subside below 5ft late tonight into tomorrow AM and then
expecting 3-4ft seas on Sunday. S winds on Sunday may approach
SCA gusts of 25kt especially on the outer coastal waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas look to drop below small craft levels
Sunday evening and Monday. Cannot rule out seas approaching 5ft
Monday night and Tuesday in southerly swell. Wave heights should
remain marginal Tuesday night into Wednesday, before diminishing
Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting fire weather concerns for today due to ongoing
dry/drought conditions and southerly winds sustained at 10-15
mph across the region. Winds could gust up to 25 mph near
Bangor and Downeast regions, and 15-25 mph elsewhere. However,
the southerly winds will bring dew point temperatures into the
50s. Thus, relative humidity values will be a bit higher than
yesterday. Looking at RHs dropping to 35-40 percent for the
Central Highlands, Moosehead Region and Southern Aroostook
County this afternoon. RH drops to 40-50 percent elsewhere
except 50-65 percent along the coastline.

Tomorrow looks fairly similar to today but breezier. An
increasing southerly wind on Sunday may increase wildfire risk,
especially Downeast to Central Highlands where it has been very
dry. Widespread S winds 10-15mph with gusts 20-30mph likely.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in the
afternoon from the Moosehead Region northward to the St. John
Valley posing an elevated lightning risk.

A wetting rain is expected Monday, mainly across the west and
north, as a frontal system moves in. Latest ensemble members are
showing a significantly less likely chance of a wetting rain
from the Bangor Region to Interior Downeast and far southern
Aroostook County. Additionally, low pressure developing over the
Gulf of Maine has increased probabilities of a wetting rain
along the shoreline especially Coastal Washington County.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swells of 11 to 14 seconds from the remnants of
Hurricane Erin will produce high surf and dangerous rip currents
at the Downeast beaches today. We are messaging for pedestrians
and motorists to use caution along shorelines. Large waves can
present a danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away
from rock outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean
waves...as waves can easily sweep people into the cold ocean
water. High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this
evening. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this
evening for the seas.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Sinko/Buster
Marine...Sinko/Buster
Fire Weather...Sinko
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Sinko