593
FXUS61 KCAR 200356
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1156 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north of Maine overnight. High pressure
will build over the area Monday. Another low pressure will
cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure drifts
southeast of the area on Thursday as another front approaches
from the west on Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...
Intensifying low pressure will track north of Maine overnight
drawing a cold front across the forecast area. The cold front
is currently crossing northern portions of the forecast area.
and will cross the remainder of the region through the early
morning hours. Aloft, the supporting upper low will also track
north of the forecast area overnight. Showers, most numerous
across central areas, will occur in advance of the cold front.
Have also kept the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm
across central areas through early morning. The upper low
tracking north of Maine could help keep the risk of scattered
showers across northern areas through the night. With the
tightening pressure gradient, west/northwest winds will increase
in the wake of the cold front. Low temperatures will range
through the 30s north, to the lower to mid 40s Downeast. Have
also updated to adjust for current conditions along with
expected overnight temperatures clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
Sunday we have a couple of concerns, strong winds & very dry
conditions. As the sun comes up expecting increasing winds and
mixing of a rapidly strengthening upper level flow. Modeled
soundings continue to show 925mb winds increasing to 45-55kt as
the pressure gradient tightens. The strongest winds aloft will
begin mixing down and expecting increasing probability of gusts
reaching 45-55mph across the area. Have hoisted a Wind Advisory
for the entire CWA but strongest winds will be near the
Longfellow Mtns from Moosehead Region northeastward including
Baxter SP up to NE Aroostook. Given the holiday tomorrow and
many people out and about keep an eye to some potential for
broken tree limbs and highly isolated power outages.
Additionally, well mixed atmosphere up ~5kft will result in
afternoon RHs falling into the 20-35 percent range across the
area. We are monitor the threat for fire weather concerns and
discuss it below in the fire weather section. Sunny conditions
southern 1/2 half of the CWA with mostly cloudy skies north.
Highs top out in the low to mid 40s north with upper 40s to low
50s south.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty northwest winds will continue Sunday night behind the low
as the upper level ridge moves in. By Monday morning, the low
level jet will have weakened, as well as the surface gradient,
and winds will begin to taper off. Dewpoints will remain in the
20s through early Monday, but with weakening winds, fire
weather will be less of a concern than it is on Sunday. Monday
afternoon, the flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of the next
frontal system, and dewpoints will rise. Temperatures will also
rise for a brief period ahead of the front, but they are not
expected to be unseasonably warm, since the warm front will
remain well south of the area.

Monday night, another low will approach from the west, bringing
another round of rain across the region. Forecast models
currently indicate rain will begin across the Central Highlands
and Bangor region early Tuesday morning, then extending
northward and reaching the Crown of Maine in time for the
morning commute. However, in recent events, models have not
accounted for dry dewpoints ahead of the precipitation and the
start has been delayed from what models indicated due to
evaporation as the precip falls through the extra dry air near
the surface. Would not be surprised to see that happen again,
with precip starting across the area up to 6 hrs after models
are indicating.

By mid-morning Tuesday, rain should be falling across the entire
forecast area, even if the onset is delayed a little. This
system will be relatively stable, so rainfall will be fairly
evenly distributed across the forecast area. However, it will be
fast moving, and dry air ahead of the front will limit precip a
little, so most areas are expected to see less than 0.5 inches
from this event.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night, the cold front behind the system will move
through and winds will become northwesterly once again as precip
changes over to showers. This cold front is weaker than the
previous one, and the flow aloft will be a bit more zonal as
well, so winds should be lower than the event over this weekend.
Ridging will build in on Wednesday and Thursday, but warm air
advection will be somewhat anemic, and high temperatures will
also be dependent ont he amount of solar radiation during the
day. With the dirty ridge moving in, high clouds will likely
limit highs on Thursday and Friday, keeping most of the area
below 60 degrees for the high. The next system is poised to move
through Friday night into Saturday. Models are in poor
agreement with the development of this low, so gave the extended
a broad brush, with rainfall likely across the area but details
hazy at best.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, generally VFR/MVFR overnight.
However, occasional IFR also possible through early morning.
Scattered to numerous showers overnight. An isolated
thunderstorm also possible through early morning across central
areas. VFR Sunday. Across Downeast areas, VFR overnight through
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers through early morning.
Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10
to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots overnight. Northwest
winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts 40 to 45 knots Sunday. Westerly
low level wind shear Downeast through early morning.

SHORT TERM: Sun...VFR. Possible SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north mainly
in the morning. NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 45kt.

Sun Night...VFR. NW winds diminishing to 10 kt late.

Mon through Mon night...VFR. NW winds 5-15kt.

Tue...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. S-SE winds 5-15kt. LLWS possible
Tuesday morning in SE flow ahead of the low.

Tue night...MVFR in possible rain trending VFR from south to
north. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wed through Wed night...Mainly VFR. Light winds.

Thu...VFR south, SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north. -SHRA possible north.
WSW winds 10-15kt.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
intra-coastal waters overnight through Sunday. A Gale Warning
remains in effect for the rest of the waters Sunday. Isolated
showers through early morning.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions lingering through Sunday
night. A few gusts to 35 possible on the outer waters early
Sunday evening. Potential for small craft winds returns Tuesday
decreasing Tuesday afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet Sunday night and
Tuesday day, otherwise 2 to 3 feet. Sun...VFR. Possible SCT- BKN
MVFR cigs north mainly in the morning. NW winds 15-25kt with
gusts up to 45kt.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy day is expected Sunday across the area behind the
departing storm system. Northwest winds will become gusty in the
morning and last into the early evening hours. This is expected
to be a decent mixing day with widespread gusts 40-50 mph
across the area with isolated higher gusts up to 55 mph.
The strongest winds will be from the Moosehead Region to Baxter
State Park to Northeast Aroostook County along the Longfellow
Mtns. In the afternoon as the mixing height reaches ~5kft the
relative humidity will drop significantly especially Downeast.
Expecting 30-40 percent minimum RHs across the north from
Moosehead Region to NE Aroostook. Downslope winds will result in
20-30 percent minimum RHs for the Central Highlands, Bangor
Region to Downeast Coast. Temperatures will be on the cooler
side across the northern 1/2 of the area in the low to mid 40s.
Downeast and Bangor Region expecting 48-52F for highs given the
downslope winds. Overall, fire weather concerns are targeted on
the Downeast Coast inland to the Route 6 corridor thanks to the
very low RHs.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Norcross/LF
Marine...Norcross/LF
Fire Weather...Sinko