693
FXUS61 KCAR 011031
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
631 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and tonight and
slide south of the area Saturday into Saturday night. A cold front
will approach from the north on Sunday and weaken as it pushes into
the north Sunday evening. High pressure will return Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 am update...
Quick update to lower hrly temps as deeper valleys in the North
Woods were able to dip into the m/u 30s with northern locations
in the lower 40s. Temps will only rise into the lower 70s over
most locations this afternoon, settling out about 5 degrees
below normal. Sunny skies remainder of the day with light north
winds expected.

Prev discussion blo...
The light rain which brushed the Downeast coast overnight will slide
out to sea early this morning as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast tracks east into the Atlantic. High pressure will build over
the area bringing a mostly sunny, cool and dry day with highs in the
low to mid 70s.

High pressure will bring a moonlit and cool night tonight with lows
from the 40s north to 50s south. A light northwesterly wind will
become calm in the valleys allowing for some steam fog over the
rivers and lakes late at night.

High pressure will remain over the area Saturday and begin to slide
south of the region during the afternoon. This will bring a mostly
sunny day with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than Friday. A
weak weather disturbance sliding in from the northwest will bring an
increase in some cumulus clouds over northwestern areas late
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to slide east out of the area Saturday
night. Mostly clear skies Saturday night will result in strong
radiational cooling, especially towards the south. Reduced
temperatures slightly in this area as the NBM tends to go a bit
warm during strong radiational cooling especially given low
temperatures will still be below normal. An upper-level trough
approaches from the west on Sunday with shortwave energy moving
into the St. Lawrence Valley ahead of a cold front. Temperatures
and moisture will also increase Sunday as we return to more
W-SW flow. This should help to foster shower and thunderstorm
development mainly over Northern Aroostook with a lesser chance
over northern Piscataquis and Penobscot as well as southern
Aroostook. Models show instability of around 500  1200 J/kg
along with 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear which could foster some
strong multicellular clusters. Will have to closely monitor
model trends but currently a few severe storms appear possible.
Otherwise, Sunday looks to be a mix of sun and clouds in the
north and sunny further south with breezy winds. Increased winds
slightly above NBM as it typically under forecasts high winds.

Sunday night appears mostly dry aside from any dying storms in
the north early on. The cold front will be moving south into
central Maine where it will eventually stall and weaken.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday, the weak cold front will linger over the area
possibly providing enough lift for a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms focused over the north and central regions.
Further south, mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to
warm into the 80s and a sea breeze along the coast is likely to
develop. Increased temps slightly right along the coast as NBM
can sometimes be too aggressive with the sea breeze.

On Tuesday, the upper-level trough moves out of the area but a
shortwave approaching from the west has a low potential to
develop a shower or storm over the area.

Later in the week ridging builds in with high pressure at the
surface. Mainly dry and warm conditions aside from a stray
shower or storm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR expected today and tonight. Cannot rule out another round of
IFR vsbys at PQI and HUL under radiational cooling conditions
but confidence is extremely low to include in this TAF package.

SHORT TERM:
Sun...VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR possible north terms for afternoon
VCTS/-SHRA. W winds 10-20kt northern terms and W-SW winds
10-20kt southern terms.

Mon...VFR. VCSH/VCTS possible northern terms. Light and variable
winds.

Tue...VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be very light today, tonight and Saturday with seas
around 1 to 2 ft. Some light rain may limit visibilities early
this morning. Otherwise, good visibility is expected through
Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA criteria
through midweek. Seas generally 1-3ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Buster
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...Bloomer/Buster/Melanson
Marine...Bloomer/Buster/Melanson