804
FXUS61 KCAR 041451
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1051 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will cross the region today. High
pressure will build south of the area Saturday. A cold front
will approach on Sunday, stall over the area Monday, then
move south Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
Upper level low pressure will cross the region this afternoon.
The cold pool aloft with the upper low will help steepen
lapse rates this afternoon. With diurnal heating, expect
increasing showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon most extensive across northern areas.
Any thunderstorms could produce small hail. Otherwise, expect
partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies north with partly sunny skies
Downeast. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to
around 70 north, to the lower to mid 70s Downeast. Have updated
to adjust for current conditions, include small hail along with
expected afternoon temperatures, clouds and shower/thunderstorm
chances.

Previous Discussion...
The upper low moves quickly east through the Canadian Maritimes
tonight. Any early evening showers will quickly diminish with
the loss of heating, with skies becoming mainly clear to partly
cloudy. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the north, and the mid 50s for the Bangor region and
Downeast.

Saturday is shaping up as a mainly sunny and warmer day, as high
pressure settles to the south of the region. Afternoon highs on
Saturday will range from the low to mid 80s across much of the
region, but it will be cooler along the immediate coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be located off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday
night while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The gradient
between the approaching front and the high off the coast will bring
a warm southwesterly breeze overnight. Moisture circulating into the
area around the high and ahead of the front will bring a mostly
cloudy night and a few showers may begin to press into the northwest
late at night. The front will continue to slowly approach on Sunday
bringing an increasing chance for showers and scattered
thunderstorms over the north while Downeast remains partly to mostly
cloudy but rain free. The front continues to slowly press into the
area late Sunday night with some showers, mostly over central and
northern areas while Downeast is partly cloudy. The front will begin
to stall overnight as high pressure over Eastern Canada weakens and
the subtropical ridge to the south holds on across the Mid-Atlantic
region.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area on Monday.
A weak shortwave in the westerlies will approach from the Great
Lakes on Monday. This will act to back heights just a bit keeping
the front stalled over the region and bringing a mostly cloudy sky
with a continued chance for showers. The front will continue to very
slowly press south across the area Monday night into Tuesday after
the weak shortwave ripples on to the east. This will allow far
northern areas to have a return of some sunshine on Tuesday while
clouds and some showers continue over central and southern
areas. Flow is expected to be very weak early to mid week next
week which will prevent any strong drying. Another shortwave
ripple is expected to approach on Wednesday, this one a bit
further north in the jet stream. This will push another weak
front toward the area. This may bring a slight chance for some
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, this
system is very weak and right now it looks like Wednesday will
be partly sunny and dry most of the time. From there, the late
week looks unsettled and uncertain with some model guidance
showing yet another shortwave approaching, this one further
south, while other models keep the region dry. Will have to
carry chances for showers on Thursday with a general weak upper
trough over the region and no strong highs expected to bringing
clearing.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR this afternoon through Saturday.
Scattered/numerous showers north, isolated/scattered Downeast,
this afternoon with occasional MVFR possible. Isolated
thunderstorms also possible this afternoon which could produce
small hail, though confidence still too low to include in the
TAFs. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots today, then 5 to 10 knots tonight. West/northwest winds
10 to 15 knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...VFR over the south and MVFR over the north. SW
winds.

Sunday...VFR south and MVFR north, possibly dropping to IFR. SW
winds.

Sunday night...MVFR north, MVFR to VFR south. Light SW winds.

Monday...MVFR, becoming VFR. Light and variable wind.

Monday night...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR south. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR north. VFR to MVFR south. Light SW wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Saturday. Isolated showers this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
SW winds may approach 25 kt in a few gusts late Sunday into
Sunday night and seas may reach 5 to 6 ft Sunday night.
Otherwise, wind and seas should be below SCA through early next
week. Humid air over the colder waters will result in fog
through early next week, possibly dense at times.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/TWD
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer