512
FXUS61 KCAR 230207
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
907 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region overnight. A frontal
boundary will stall across the region Sunday. High pressure
crosses the region Monday. Another frontal system crosses the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure is expected to cross
the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:07 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate
that a deck of mid level clouds has moved into the western third
of the CWA. Clouds are expected to continue to advance into the
area from the west the remainder of tonight. Temperatures have
risen several degrees in the west as the clouds moved in, but
where the sky has remained clear temperatures have dropped well
down into the single digits in many valleys in the east. Have
made some adjustments to the sky grids and hourly temperatures
for the remainder of the night, but otherwise no significant
changes at this time.

Previous discussion:
High pressure over the area moves east, giving way to a
shortwave positively tilted trough that moves in from the west,
centering over Maine on Sunday. With this, expect clouds to
begin to fill in this evening, gradually becoming overcast
tonight. During this short time of clear skies after sunset,
eastern portions of the forecast region may drop temperature
relatively fast, but should become constant when cloud cover
moves in. A weak warm front moves in late tonight, which will
help temperatures to rise overnight. Low temperature forecast
to be in the teens throughout the region.

There is some light snow shower potential moving in from the
west tonight into tomorrow. There is a potential for some
heavier snow bands in the far north, predominantly St. John`s
valley, with favorable moisture and lift parameters. There is a
small chance for snow squalls,  but given lower winds aloft,
not anticipating squall conditions at this time. Heavier snow
bands may cause some reduced visibilities at times. At this
point, forecasting 0.5-1 inch of accumulated snow. Precipitation
chance begin to diminish tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the high 20s, to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday, shortwave ridging moves overhead and
the weather will remain quiet ahead of the next front. Monday
night, a warm front passes through and temperatures Monday night
will not be much lower than the highs on Monday afternoon. A
weak LLJ will pass through Monday night, contributing to
possible wind shear for aviation purposes, and bringing gustier
winds to the surface as they mix down. On Tuesday, temperatures
will rise into the upper 30s or low 40s across the region.
Deterministic NBM is on the high side of model guidance for this
event, indicating the influence of the warmer ECMWF solution.
Chose to go with NBM 50th percentile for highs on Tuesday,
moderating the temperatures slightly, although highs will be
above freezing. Snow will begin Monday night with overrunning
ahead of the main front, but by Tuesday morning, warmer air will
move northward and precipitation is expected to mix or even
turn all the way to rain over the eastern half of the state.
This will help limit any snow accumulation, and snowfall totals
will remain 1 inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will move through Tuesday night, starting off
as rain but then switching to snow overnight. This front will
not have a big impact on temperatures, and daytime highs above
freezing are expected to continue through Thursday. On Thursday,
a developing low will move up the Maine coastline, bringing a
stronger cold front through, with snow for much of the region.
Temperatures will be closer to normal Thursday night through
Saturday with the colder air mass overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for much of tonight, but with MVFR ceilings at
the northern terminals late tonight. Mainly MVFR Sunday north,
but with local IFR in snow showers, especially north of KHUL.
VFR at KBGR and KBHB. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

SHORT TERM:

Mon night-Tue night... MVFR or lower in light snow/rain mix.
LLWS possible, mainly Monday night. SW winds 10 to 15kts Monday
night and Tuesday morning, becoming light Tuesday afternoon.

Wed-Wed night...VFR. Light winds.

Thurs...MVFR in rain/snow mix, dropping to IFR in the afternoon
from N to S as precip switches to snow. W winds becoming NW 10 -
15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: In outer-waters, conditions below Small Craft
Advisory this evening, which will rise to Small Craft criteria
later tonight. On the intra-coastal waters, winds/seas below
Small Craft levels tonight and Sunday. Winds from the west.
Light freezing tonight possible in the inter-coastals.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions return Monday night with winds
around 30 kts through Tuesday morning. Winds diminish Tuesday
afternoon and remain below small craft criteria after that.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/CB
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Brennan/CB/LF
Marine...Brennan/CB/LF