553
FXUS61 KCAR 171759
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure returns
on Friday through Saturday. Another front approaches from the
north while low pressure tracks south of the area on Sunday.
High pressure builds in from the northwest on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to move through the region
tonight. The strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be
a threat this evening and tonight due to the second round of
storms moving with the front. The concern will be the
reinvigorating of the instability values and helicity with the
front. In addition, high PWAT values hold on into the night. As
of this update, a flood watch has been issued to a little after
midnight. The frontal progression will be rather quick to where
the front will exit the state after midnight. Some rain showers
will linger in the far north before drying out with the cooler
airmass and drier conditions. For the south, the marine layer
will continue to keep severe thunderstorms out of the area.
Areas of fog will return tonight.

For Friday and Friday night, high pressure will settle into New
England, clearing skies and cooling temps for the day and night.
Also, dew points will decrease with the system, decreasing RH.
High temps will reach into the mid 70s and low temps in the mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build offshore on Saturday with southwest
winds bringing fairly warm temps during the day. Temps will
climb to near seasonal norms for the day with drier dewpoints
remaining in the 50s.

A cold front will be dropping south toward the CWA overnight
with showers ahead of it and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wrap-around showers will continue Sunday night into Monday
morning before high pressure builds in. Hipres controls the area
wx through the middle part of the week with upr lvl ridge slowly
breaking down next Thursday.

Temps will be cool on Monday with highs only topping out around
70 but will rebound thru the end of the period up to near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals: Mainly VFR conditions, then
MVFR/IFR in rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Cigs lowering to IFR at sunset, then improve to MVFR
after midnight. VFR conditions return Friday and remain through
Friday night. Early S winds 5-10, switching to WNW after
midnight. Then NW Friday and Friday night 5-15 kts.

Downeast Terminals: Cigs lower to IFR/LIFR tonight with areas of
fog moving in. Vsby lowers to IFR after sunset. VFR conditions
return Friday morning and remain into Friday night. Early S
winds 5-10, switching to WNW after midnight. Then NW Friday and
Friday night 5-15 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. SW 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday night...Dropping to MVFR/IFR late Sat
night in showers, possible tstms in the afternoon. WSW 5-15kts
becoming NW 5-10kts Monday morning.

Monday...VFR. NW 10-20kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA tonight through
Friday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through late tonight for MEZ001>004.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Buster