519
FXUS61 KCAR 171534
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1134 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach today and slowly cross the region
tonight through Sunday night, then slowly exit to the east
Monday through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on
Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
A frontal boundary will weaken across the region today. At the
same time, vertically stacking surface/upper lows will begin to
approach from the west. Expect increasing shower coverage
across the region through the afternoon. Could also have
enough instability to support isolated thunderstorms across
west-central and extreme northwest portions of the forecast
area. High temperatures will range from around 60 to the lower
60s north, to the upper 50s to around 60 interior Downeast with
mid to upper 50s along the Downeast coast.

Previous Discussion...
Cooler weather today into tonight is expected, particularly as
the cold conveyor belt wraps around the occluded low into the
night tonight. More widespread rain showers are in store for the
forecast area this evening through the overnight hours as the
low center begins to slowly march from west to east through the
area. There is still some uncertainty of whether or not a well
defined triple point low will develop along the coast while the
occlusion crosses our area. If this does occur, rainfall may be
enhanced locally along the coast. Otherwise, the marine layer
will be too stable for any local enhancements to the rain
showers.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Vertically stacked upper level low will cross the region Sunday
through Sunday night. This results in continued unsettled
weather with showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorms.
Showers will continue Sunday night and Monday as the vertically
stacked upper low continues east. Lows Sunday night will range
from the low to mid 40s across the north and upper 40s to around
50 for Bangor and Downeast. Afternoon highs on Monday will only
range from the lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s for Bangor
and Downeast. The low will start to exit to the east Monday with
continued showers. But as the low move further east later
Monday night shower chances will be decreasing.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Vertically stacked low pressure continues to move south and
east of the Canadian Maritime provinces on Tuesday. As the
vertically stacked system continues to move away on Tuesday,
shower chances will continue to decrease to scattered to
isolated by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night through much of
Wednesday appears mainly dry, as upper level ridging and drier
air builds in ahead of the next upper level low advancing from
the west. Shower chances begin to increase once again Thursday
night into Friday, as the upper level low crosses the region by
late week and into next weekend.

Afternoon high temperatures Tuesday through Friday be several
degrees below normal for this time of year.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions expected across the region this
afternoon through tonight. Increasing shower chances this
afternoon. Showers tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
this afternoon into this evening, mostly across west-central
and extreme northwest areas. Patchy to areas of fog this
afternoon through tonight. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots today.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Sun and Sun Night...MVFR/IFR expected in showers and low cigs.
N wind around 10 kt.

Mon and Mon night...MVFR or lower possible. N to NW wind G25 KT
possible.

Tue...MVFR/VFR. Sct to isold showers.

Tue night and Wed...MVFR/VFR trending VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect winds/seas below small craft
advisory levels this afternoon through tonight. However, a few
wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels tonight.
Isolated/scattered showers today, then showers tonight. Areas of
fog this afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
much of the period. Areas of fog may reduce visibility to 1 NM
or less at times Sunday morning and again Monday morning.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/AStrauser
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Norcross/TWD
Marine...Norcross/TWD