794
FXUS61 KCAR 302327
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
727 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly cross the region through
tonight. High pressure will build in starting Sunday and remain
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
715pm Update...
Small tweaks to PoPs and sky cover for next few hours to account
for current trends. Showers are decreasing in coverage very
quickly as the sun sets, leaving just isolated to scattered
shower activity this evening, which will dissipate later this
evening. Low-level flow has turned W/NW as a surface low has
exited NE Aroostook County and moved into western New Brunswick.
Upper level low pressure is still over the state, but that will
move east later tonight leading to increasing subsidence.

Previous Discussion...
Occluded front has made it thru most of the area as of 18z.
Most of the main showers have shifted into Canada though line of
thunderstorms has developed along Rte 1 in Washington County.
Storms will move into NB within the next hour or two but will
bring some much needed rain to that area.

Showers typical of upper lows will continue this evening but
with most of the instability ahead of the front have just gone
with showers for this evening. With showers waning after sunset
have ended them slowly from south to north beginning around 10pm
tonight with far north areas hanging onto pops until just before
sunrise. Cannot rule out patchy river valley fog developing
late tonight.

With upper low remaining in the vicinity cannot rule out an
isolated shower acrs the northeast tomorrow afternoon. Light nw
winds present acrs the area tomorrow with aftn temps rising to
just blo normal with l/m 70s for most of the region.

Ridging will begin to build into the region Sunday night with
skies clearing. Another round of patchy river valley fog
possible late tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure system lingers in New England until early
next week. Winds are light and variable during the short term
period. Daytime highs in the mid 70s on Monday. Skies relatively
clear to partially cloudy overnight. Could have some river
valley fog as a result of high humidity and potential surface
inversion. Low temperatures in the upper-40s to low-50s.
Partially cloudy on Tuesday, with daytime highs in the mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging lingers in the northeast through the middle of the
week. Upper level trough moves in again from the southwest,
which could bring some light precipitation to northern Maine in
the middle of the week. Some of the regional models are trying
to hint at coastal low making it way up to Gulf of Maine,
bringing some rain to the Downeast region, but very uncertain in
this at this time. Next chance for wetting rain would be late
this week into the weekend, as a deep trough moves east from the
central US, with an associated cold front. Timing on the front
is a little uncertain. Currently have the highest chances of
precipitation Friday into Saturday. Indication of a mid-to-upper
level jet moving over Maine with this system, so did bump winds
up a little to account for any mixing that could occur. High
temperatures in the 70s mid-week, before going down into the 60s
post-front. Overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected next 24 hours for Downeast terminals
with light W/NW winds around 5 kts.

Aroostook terminals are trickier. As of now (23/0z), conditions
vary widely due to cigs, with anything from about 1000ft
ceilings to scattered clouds at 7000ft. Think that ceilings the
next few hours will be toggling between MVFR and VFR, but then
trend toward MVFR around 3/4z at FVE/CAR/PQI, and roughly 8z at
HUL. Confidence is low-moderate. Can`t rule out IFR cigs toward
sunrise esp FVE, but don`t expect widespread IFR later tonight.
Some MVFR cigs will persist until 13-15z, then rapid
improvement to VFR after 15z. W/NW winds around 5 kts.

Sunday Night...VFR early, then widely variable conditions with
valley fog. Sites most likely to get IFR or lower are PQI, HUL,
BGR.

SHORT TERM:
Monday - Monday Night...VFR. May be some patchy valley fog
Monday night into Tuesday morning, which could reduce
visibility. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...VFR with light winds. Potential for
some residual valley fog early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday - Thursday...VFR, with a period of MVFR at northern
terminals from light rain showers on Wednesday. Winds 5-10 kts
from the W/SW on Wednesday, before becoming S on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain well below small craft levels.
SW winds this evening becoming NW late tonight. Seas mainly 3
feet or less through Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria through
the middle of next week. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all
waters. Winds around 5 -10 kts and shift clockwise throughout
the day on Monday and Tuesday, before becoming steadily SW on
Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Foisy
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...Buster/Foisy/Brennan
Marine...Buster/Foisy/Brennan