181
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1249 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. Low
pressure will approach from the west tonight and lift north of
the region Saturday. Low pressure will remain to our north and
intensify on Sunday. High pressure will build over the area
Monday. A new area of low pressure will approach on Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes this afternoon. At the
same time, low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes will
draw a warm front toward New England. Aloft, an upper level
disturbance will approach later this afternoon. Clouds will
increase across the forecast area through the afternoon. Could
also have a slight chance of rain very late this afternoon,
mostly across western portions of the forecast area. High
temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 50s across
much of the forecast area. Lower to mid 50s are expected along
the Downeast coast with developing onshore winds from the Gulf
of Maine. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along
with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will begin to lift up to our northwest tonight
drawing moisture north on a southerly wind. This will bring
showers across the area, especially to central and northern
parts of the region. There will be an initial band of showers in
the evening ahead of a small upper level shortwave, then a
break followed by more showers very late at night toward
morning. The clouds and southerly wind will result in a mild
night with lows near or just above 40 across the area. Rain will
be a bit spotty due to its showery nature. Average rain amounts
overnight will range from a 0.10 to 0.15 inch.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rain showers will continue into Saturday morning as low pressure
tracks well northwest of Maine. Showers will end in Bangor and
Downeast by the afternoon, while the threat will continue in the
North through the day. The other story on Saturday will be the
warm air mass over the region. 850-mb temperatures will rise to
10-12C for Bangor and Downeast, and 7-10C further north. Skies
are forecast to be mostly cloudy for much of the day. However,
still forecasting highs in the 60s for most inland locations.
Areas from Bangor to Dover-Foxcroft will likely see highs in
the lower 70s, with warmer readings possible if more clearing
takes place. Southwest winds will keep the immediate coast
cooler, with highs in the 50s.

A cold front will approach from the northwest by Saturday
evening. This will bring the threat of rain showers from the
Central Highlands northward. Soundings show some elevated
instability over Northern Aroostook County. Confidence was high
enough to introduce the mention of isolated thunder in the
forecast there. Cannot totally rule out a rumble or two
elsewhere. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front Saturday
night. Lows will be in the 30s north of Moosehead Lake and
Katahdin. To the south, expect lows in the 40s. Any leftover
rain showers in the Crown of Maine will change to snow showers
by early Sunday morning.

A blustery and colder day is on tap for Sunday thanks to an
increasing pressure gradient. Based on mixed layer soundings,
could see northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Higher gusts
are possible over the higher terrain. Still too early to
consider wind headlines, but they may ultimately be needed.
Winds will diminish Sunday night with the loss of daytime
heating and weakening pressure gradient. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the mid to upper 40s from Katahdin northward.
To the south, highs will reach the lower 50s.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather for Monday, resulting in
dry weather and lighter winds. A low pressure system will track
into Quebec Monday night into Tuesday, before redeveloping along
the coast by Tuesday night. At this time, thermal profiles
suggest p-type will be rain. However, a few snowflakes could
mix in over the highest terrain. Not expected to be a big rain
producer, with amounts a half inch or less. An isolated rain
shower will be possible over the North on Wednesday or Thursday.
Otherwise, dry weather and seasonable temperatures for that
time period.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this afternoon. Conditions lowering to MVFR
across the area this evening then IFR overnight into Saturday in
lower clouds and rain. Conditions may improve to MVFR over
southern areas Saturday afternoon. West/southwest winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming southwest/south today. South/southeast winds 5
to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...Mainly MVFR/IFR at Aroostook terminals with -SHRA.
Isolated -TSRA at Aroostook terminals late. MVFR early Bangor
and Downeast, becoming VFR late. SW winds 5-15 kts, gusting to
20 kts. LLWS possible.

Saturday Night...Periods of MVFR possible at Aroostook
Terminals with -SHRA, -SHSN possible late. Otherwise VFR. S
winds 5-15 kts, becoming W-NW late.

Sunday...Mainly Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals with
VCSH rain and snow showers. NW winds 15-25 kts, gusting 30-45
kts.

Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. Winds NW 5-15 kts, gusting 20-30 kts
Sunday night.

Monday Night-Tuesday...VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA.
Light winds, becoming SE at 5-15 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this
afternoon through early tonight. A Small Craft Advisory then
remains in effect for all the waters starting at midnight. Rain
tonight.

SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through
Saturday and Sunday for all waters. Winds could gust up to 30
kts on the outer waters with wave heights up to 8 feet. Winds
and seas are expected to subside below SCA criteria by Monday
morning, and then remain there through Tuesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer/Clark
Marine...Norcross/Clark