023
FXUS61 KCAR 192023
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
423 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains across the region Sunday into next week.
A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface/upper level ridging is suppressed southward tonight. An
upper level disturbance will track north of Maine Sunday.
Patchy fog and frost are possible across the region later
tonight. Otherwise, expect clear skies tonight. Expect
mostly/partly sunny skies across northern areas Sunday, with
mostly sunny skies Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the mid to upper 30s across the forecast
area. However, locally colder temperatures are also possible.
High temperatures Sunday will generally range from the mid to
upper 60s across the forecast area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night, a weak cold front will cross Quebec and New
Brunswick, bringing a change in temperatures. Southwest flow on
Monday across Maine will bring warm air ahead of the approaching
front, and afternoon highs may reach near the daily record,
mainly for the southern portion of the forecast area. In the
northwest, the cooler air will already begin to filter in by
Monday afternoon, so highs are only expected to reach into the
low 60s. On Tuesday, cooler air will continue to move southward
over the forecast area. No precipitation is expected with this
dry front, but the cooler air mass aloft will mitigate diurnal
warming. Current model runs have trended downward from the past
few runs, with more uncertainty in the temps for Tuesday.
Therefore, chose to go on the high end of the probabilistic
guidance, to account for the possibility that day time warming
may still be a factor. Trends may continue downward between now
and Tuesday, giving higher confidence to drop temperatures even
further. Daytime highs are currently forecast to be in the mid
to upper 60s, so even with a downward trend, highs will likely
be around normal for this time of year.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night, the high will shift off to the east, bringing
return flow and a brief return to warmer temperatures. Wednesday
has the potential to be the warmest day of the week, with
temperatures nearing 70F, even through the North Woods. Records
on Wednesday are a little higher, so the possibility of breaking
a daily record that day is minimal, even though highs will be
similar to Monday.

The first potential for ground-wetting precipitation returns on
Thursday with a cold front approaching from the west. As usual
for the end of the forecast period, there is a lot of
variability in the timing. Individual model runs are showing
precipitation starting anywhere from early Thursday morning to
Thursday evening. Therefore, any model blends including the NBM
are going to show a longer period of low-chance precipitation,
when the reality is higher certainty of a shorter period of
precipitation, with high uncertainty on the timing. An
interesting feature with this cold front is that it does have a
solid cold air mass behind it with 850 hPa temps dropping to -6
or -7C. This would be conducive for a snow profile. However, the
main band of precipitation is really ahead of the cold front, so
although there could be a brief switchover to snow showers, this
does not look like an accumulating snow event. Again, care will
need to be taken with the forecast, with broadbrush solutions
possibly over emphasizing the potential for snow due to the
timing issues between individual models.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Brief variable conditions locally possible with any
patchy fog late tonight through early Sunday. Otherwise, VFR
tonight through Sunday. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots tonight,
then 10 to 15 knots Sunday.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night through Weds...VFR. S to SW winds 10 to 15 kts
becoming NW on Tuesday, then returning to SW on Weds.

Weds night...VFR becoming MVFR late from north to south. SW
winds 10kts becoming W 10 to 15kts.

Thurs...Mainly MVFR in rain. Winds W 15kts becoming NW 15 to 20
kts, gusting 20 to 30 kts. Possible LLWS.

Thurs night...MVFR improving to VFR. Rain becoming rain showers,
possibly mixed with snow showers. Winds NW 15 to 20 kts,
gusting 20 to 30 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: First possibility for small craft winds returns on
Thursday, with increasing NW winds behind the front. Otherwise,
winds will primarily be S to SW around 10 kts. Seas will be 2 to
3 feet, gradually increasing to 3 to 4 feet by Thursday
afternoon.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Norcross/LF
Marine...Norcross/LF