769
FXUS61 KCAR 200722
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region today into
Friday. A warm front will lift across the area Saturday. An
occluded front will begin to approach on Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains ridged across the region today into
Thursday. A surface trof extends toward western portions of the
forecast area today then weakens tonight. An upper level trof
approaches later today, crosses the region tonight into
Thursday, then begins to exit across the Maritimes later
Thursday. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the
region today, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies tonight.
Patchy fog also possible late tonight. Expect partly sunny
skies, along with a slight chance of afternoon showers north,
Thursday with mostly sunny skies Downeast. High temperatures
today will range from the lower to mid 70s across the forecast
area. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s north,
to the upper 40s to around 50 Downeast. Highs Thursday will
range from the lower to mid 70s north, to the mid to upper 70s
Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging over the area will bring a clear, tranquil and
chilly night Thursday night with lows from the 40s north to the low
50s Downeast. A light northeasterly breeze will persist along the
coast on the far northern fringes of Hurricane Erin passing well out
to sea.

Friday will be mostly sunny and warmer as subsidence along the
northeastern edge of upper ridging helps boost temperatures into the
upper 70s, to near 80 in some southern areas. Seas from Hurricane
Erin will build up to 9 ft along the coast potentially creating
dangerous rip tides and some coastal erosion.

Our focus on Saturday will begin to turn to a large trough of low
pressure slowly approaching from the Great Lakes region. High
pressure pushing offshore combined with the approach of this low
will lift a warm front north of the area Saturday afternoon. The sky
is expected to be mostly sunny but may transition to partly sunny
over the north as the warm front lifts north. A light southerly
breeze will develop along the western edge of the high. Otherwise,
Saturday will be another very warm day will inland temperatures near
80 across the area.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to move away to the east Saturday night
as the occlusion ahead of approaching low pressure nears. A light
southerly breeze will continue between the departing high and
approaching low, and the sky will become party cloudy.

Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be lifting up toward
James Bay Canada on Sunday as moisture ahead of the occlusion
continues to push into our area. This may begin to carry some
showers into our region, mainly west and north, Sunday afternoon.
Currently the GFS is a little more aggressive in bringing moisture
in while the ECMWF holds the moisture back west. The chances for
showers will increase Sunday night as the occlusion continues to
press into the area from the west with the best chances for rain
west and north.

As we go into early next week, focus will continue to be on the
large trough and occluded front approaching from the west. The long
range guidance seems to indicate that a jet max will be rounding the
bottom of the trough, surging through the Midwest and approaching
New England on Monday. This has the potential to add energy and lift
to the occlusion, pushing some showers further into the area on
Monday. However, a complicating factor will be ridging continuing to
hold on nearby to our east supported by subtropical air backing
north into the area behind the departing high. This could slow down
the occlusion and initially keep most of the rain to our west and
north. The ECMWF brings a more solid line of showers across our area
Monday night while the GFS lifts most of the rain up and away
northeast of our area. Current thinking is that some rain is likely
sometime from Monday into Tuesday but it will likely be difficult to
gauge the timing and intensity of the bands of rain until the system
gets closer. An additional complicating factor will be a small
subtropical wave off the Mid-Atlantic coast that could feed some
moisture back into our area if the jet rounding the bottom of the
trough is able to capture it.

Generally unsettled conditions with continued chances for additional
spotty showers will likely continue through mid-week as the upper
trough lifts across to our north.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any patchy fog late
tonight. Otherwise, VFR today through Thursday. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots today through Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR. Calm air north. Light NE wind south.

Friday...VFR. Light N wind.

Friday night...VFR. Light and variable wind.

Saturday...VFR. Light S wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north. S
wind.

Sunday...VFR to MVFR south. MVFR to IFR north. Increasing S wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory
levels today through much of Thursday. However, seas could
begin to reach small craft advisory levels across the eastern
waters Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Seas from Hurricane Erin will build from around 5
ft Thursday evening to 9 ft late Thursday night requiring a SCA.
Seas will remain up to 9 to 10 ft Friday into Friday evening
subsiding to around 7 ft by early Saturday morning then 5 ft
late Saturday. Winds will remain below SCA but a few northeast
gusts up to 25 kt will be possible Thursday night through Friday
night along the northern fringe of Hurricane Erin.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer