188
FXUS61 KCAR 191145
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
745 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
740 am update...Removed fog from all locations expect for far
sern coastal Washington County this morning. Aviation
discussion update for 12z.

Increasing confidence in wetting rain at the beginning of the
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to
help with the recent dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to help
with the recent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A large low pressure system well to the north moves into the
area from the west on Tuesday. The associated cold front is
expected to pass through the region on Wednesday. Ensemble
models are trending towards a more moist system with increasing
rainfall amounts. However, the track and timing of the system
and cold front is still inconsistent. Nevertheless, guidance
shows a 70-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall and a
30-50% chance of at least 1 inch of rainfall with the storm
which should help provide relief for some of recent dry
conditions. In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected with the passage of the cold front on Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today...IFR/MVFR Aroostook terminals this morning with low cigs
hanging on thru early afternoon. VFR Downeast terminals. NW
winds 10-15kts, gusting to 25 kts.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds diminish after sunset all all but FVE
where 5-15kts hang on until late.

Monday...VFR. W winds 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday: VFR. S-SE winds G20-30KT possible
Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. TS possible
Wed afternoon. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR in rain showers. Improving to
VFR Thursday. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Current observations show wind gusts below SCA levels - but seas
on the coastal ocean waters running 4-7 ft. So will cancel the
gales on the outer waters and the SCA on the intra-coastal
waters, and let the SCA ride as is on the coastal ocean waters.
The day shift might need to adjust the end time there, either
forward or back - depending on how fast the seas actually fall.

Otherwise, expect winds and seas to continue to diminish, with sustained
winds 15 kt or less and seas generally less than 5 ft on all
waters by tonight and continuing on Monday.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria Monday night through Tuesday.
Winds and seas above SCA criteria Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with gales possible on the outer waters. Winds
decrease below criteria Thursday but seas remain elevated. Seas
peak Wednesday night at 6 to 9 ft on the intracoastal waters, 8
to 10 ft on the coastal waters, and 9 to 11 ft on the outer
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...21/ARL/PM
AVIATION...21/ARL/PM