188
FXUS61 KCAR 301827
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
227 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today into this evening. High
pressure will build in from the west Thursday into Friday then
slide south of the region Saturday into Sunday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front continues to move across the area today,
currently crossing the Central Highlands. This is not a well-
defined front, with temps and dewpoints dropping more gradually
behind the front. Thunderstorms are developing along the front
and will continue to develop through the evening hours. This
will be the best chance for any strong to severe storms. Plenty
of 0 to 6km bulk shear is available, but CAPE values are lacking
except along the southern side of the front, where sun has had a
chance to preheat the atmophere. So far thunderstorms have been
a little pulsey, but are developing a little stronger as they
move eastward into the areas of greater CAPE. Little rotation
has been seen on radar but with strong winds aloft the capacity
for gusty winds at the surface with any storms still exists,
especially if the storms can maximize the available instability.
This concern will last through the evening, but by mid-evening
CAPES will drop off again and showers should slowly weaken as
the front moves south.

Weather behind the front will be drier and noticeably cooler,
with highs only reaching into the 70s tomorrow during the day.
The stalled front offshore will keep weather over the land
fairly calm for northern Maine. Eventually, the progressing
trough will push some showers northward over the Downeast coast.
These may be fairly limited depending on how strong the surface
high builds in ahead of time. The upshot is that Thursday and
Thursday night look to be cool and quiet, with some possible
showers late Thursday night for Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Looking generally dry Friday through Saturday, with mid level
W/NW flow and surface high pressure centered just S/W of us.
Early Friday, can`t rule out a few leftover showers on the
coast, but even that is just a small (20 percent) chance.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than average and the air will
remain dry with low dewpoints. Models are in good agreement.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern changes beginning Sunday and lasting into the middle
of the week, with the flowing shifting from W/NW to W at mid-
levels, allowing a warmer and somewhat moister airmass to be in
place than what was present Friday/Saturday. This means chances
of afternoon storms return Saturday, along with higher
dewpoints. That said, don`t think any one day Sunday to
Wednesday looks terribly unsettled, with 10-30 percent chances
of afternoon showers/storms. Temperatures will be warmer than
average with generally upper 70s to mid 80s. Some uncertainty
with temperatures, but not anticipating anything warm enough for
heat advisories or warnings. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to low
60s, which is slightly muggy, but not too uncomfortable.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions expected this evening through
tomorroow. Short periods of MVFR possible in the
afternoon/evening in -SHRA for northern TAF sites, possible
-TSRA in the evening for HUL/BGR. Light winds becoming NW 5 to
10 kts.


SHORT TERM: Predominantly VFR through Tuesday with variable wind
10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA criteria
through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas likely below small craft levels
through Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...LF/Foisy
Marine...LF/Foisy