733
FXUS61 KCAR 140257
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1057 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly track across Maine from northwest to
southeast overnight and Thursday. High pressure then builds
down from southeastern Canada through Friday night, and moves to
the east Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday.
High pressure builds in from the west Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
A cold front approaching the Saint Lawrence River Valley late
this evening, will reach northern Maine overnight. Expect
isolated/scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, across the
forecast area overnight in advance of the cold front. Will also
have patchy fog across northern areas, with areas of fog
Downeast. Low temperatures will range from around 60 to the mid
60s across the forecast area. Have updated to adjust for
current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures,
clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances.

Previous Discussion...
A northern stream trough slowly builds over the area through
Thursday then exits to the east Thursday night. Ahead of the
trough axis will be some mainly scattered showers with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms. Noting storm motion of 10-15kt,
precipitable waters of 1 2/3 to 1 9/10 of an inch, and freezing
levels around 13-14 kft supporting warm rain process, there is
the potentially for locally heavy rainfall with any stronger
convection. Given this, could see localized ponding of water in
roadways/low lying areas in locations experiencing heavy
rainfall.

Showers/thunderstorms will tapper off from NW to SE starting
Thursday morning in the far NW to Thursday evening across far
east Downeast Maine.

Highs on Thursday should range from the middle 70s to middle
80s, generally about 10-15 degrees lower than today, except near
the immediate coast, where it should be about the same. This is
around 5 degrees above normal. Lows Thursday night should be
around 5-10 degrees below normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will crest over the region Friday night.
This will mean clear skies and calm winds, ideal for radiational
cooling. Thus, decided to go lower than NBM guidance for low
temperatures Friday night. Some of the colder valleys in the North
Woods could see lows in the upper 30s. Elsewhere, expect lows in the
40s from the Katahdin region northward, and 50s to the south. Return
southerly flow sets up Saturday as the high retreats eastward. Warm
air advection will ensure, with 850mb temperatures rising to 12-14C.
With ample sunshine expect highs in the lower to mid 80s inland,
and 70s at the coast. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the
50s to near 60 degrees as clouds increase from north to south.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region from northwest to
southeast Sunday. Ahead of the front, it will be warm and humid,
though not to the extent of recent days. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely in the afternoon as the front passes through. There
remains uncertainty with the timing of the front and available
instability. As a result, leaned on NBM guidance during this time.
Also, confidence remains low on the strength of any thunderstorms.
Much cooler and less humid behind the front early next week as
Canadian high pressure builds in. Depending on decoupling, some
colder northern valleys could see some patchy frost Monday night.
However, confidence in this outcome remains low at this time.
Regardless, below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions for
at least the first half of next week.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR/MVFR across northern areas overnight
through early Thursday. Scattered showers, possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, overnight through early Thursday. Variable
conditions with any fog overnight. VFR Thursday afternoon.
Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR, local IFR, lowering to IFR/LIFR
with low clouds and fog overnight through early Thursday.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight. VFR/MVFR Thursday
afternoon with isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots Thursday. North winds around 10 knots Thursday night.

SHORT TERM:
Friday-Saturday Night..Mainly VFR. Light and variable winds
Friday night, becoming S 5-15 kts Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Brief IFR or lower possible PM with SHRA
and isolated to scattered TSRA. S winds 5-10 kts early, switching to
NW from north to south during the day.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Thursday night. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms overnight, then scattered
showers/thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening.
Patchy/areas of fog overnight into Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through this weekend and into early next week. SW
wind gusts could approach 20 kts on Sunday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Maloit
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Norcross/Maloit/Clark
Marine...Norcross/Clark