388
FXUS61 KCAR 070154
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
954 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled across the Gulf of Maine this
afternoon and tonight. Low pressure will approach tonight and
track across the area Saturday. High pressure will return on
Sunday. An upper level low will set up west of the area Monday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update..
Latest radar reflectivity shows an area of rain and isolated
thunderstorms moving east across the central and downeast
portions of the forecast area. This rain may reach as far north
as the Caribou area in the next few hours before it moves east
into New Brunswick province. Patchy fog is expected to develop,
especially for Bangor and Downeast. Otherwise, smoke/haze will
continue overnight. No major changes were made to the current
overnight forecast.

previous discussion
Today, low pressure system pauses and goes stationary over
Maine, leading to relatively light and calm winds. Primary
concerns this evening have been the Canadian smoke causing some
hazy conditions throughout Maine today, due to the lack winds.
The smoke is currently forecast to stay around until tomorrow
night based on models and current conditions. Generally,
northern Maine is in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Grounds range,
but could concentrations could increase if smoke begins to
accumulate throughout the area. The smoke has reduced
visibility in some northern locations. Smoke could get better in
southern areas tomorrow, but could definitely linger in the
north overnight. High level clouds move over the north and some
thicker high level clouds move through the coast. Rain showers
push in with the stalled front, focused primarily in southern
and coastal areas.

Late tonight, brief break between rain showers, before coming
back during the day tomorrow. Rain looks to be mostly centered
around southern and central Maine, but confidence is pretty low
over whether these showers will extend into northern counties.
If showers do extend more north, looks to be mostly light.
Could be a slight potential for some isolated thunder based on
soundings and instability parameters, primarily focused in
central and coastal Maine. General rainfall accumulations
between tonight and tomorrow are around half an inch in the
north, and potentially between an inch to an inch and a half in
the Central Highlands and Downeast region. Overnight lows in the
high-50s/low-60s. Daytime highs tomorrow in the in the
upper-60s, and 50s along the coastline with the southerly sea
breeze. Overcast skies tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday Night...
Low pressure and rain exits from west to east in the evening,
and a drier airmass works in. Still could be some smoke around.
Low confidence on when exactly it exits.

Sunday...
High pressure builds in, making for a dry day to close out the
weekend. Mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds.

Sunday Night and Monday...
High pressure moves east and clouds and precip chances begin
increasing from west to east. Model agreement falls off
especially toward late Monday, with a few ensemble members,
especially from the ECMWF, showing decent rain Monday afternoon.
More models/ensembles, however, favor dry weather. Going with
around a 30 percent chance of showers for now, close to the NBM.
Seasonal temperatures persist into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
From Tuesday through Friday, westerly flow aloft over the
region, with perhaps several shortwave troughs embedded in the
westerly flow bringing increased precip chances. The first
shortwave trough appears likely for late Tuesday/Tuesday night,
with likely showers and possible thunderstorms. Timing still a
bit uncertain for this feature, but models overall are in
reasonable agreement. After Tuesday night, however,
model/ensemble timing becomes more uncertain. Generally, looking
for a gradual transition from W/SW flow to NW flow as we head
toward Friday, with perhaps a drying trend toward Friday.
Thunderstorm chances exist Wed/Thu, especially in the afternoon
hours. Temperatures Tuesday through Friday running near or a bit
above average, with slightly muggy conditions but nothing too
bad. With the westerly flow and fires persisting to our west in
Canada, we could still be susceptible to smoke advecting into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...VFR/MVFR early this evening, then MVFR/IFR
after 03Z in scattered showers and patchy fog. IFR/LIFR after
05z in low ceilings/fog through about 13z Saturday, then MVFR in
scattered showers and continued haze. Light variable wind
through Saturday.

KBGR: MVFR/IFR in showers and fog. IFR/LIFR after 05z in low
ceilings/fog through 13z Saturday, then MVFR in scattered
showers and continued haze. Light variable wind through
Saturday.

KBHB: VFR early this evening, then decreasing to IFR/LIFR in
showers and fog through early Saturday morning. IFR Saturday in
showers and patchy fog/haze.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday Night...MVFR/IFR early with SHRA, improving to VFR
late. NW winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts, gusting 15-20 kts.

Sunday Night-Monday...Mainly VFR, but a small possibility of
MVFR/IFR Monday afternoon if wetter model solutions transpire.
Light winds Sunday night, becoming SE 5-10 kts on Monday.

Monday night...Generally VFR but with a small chance of MVFR.
Light winds.

Tuesday...VFR generally early, perhaps becoming MVFR late. S
winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR likely Tuesday  night,
improving to VFR/MVFR by Wednesday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorm possible. S winds 5-15 kts becoming W.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria tonight into tomorrow. Seas at or below 4 ft over the
outer waters and at or below 3ft for the intra-coastals.
Tomorrow afternoon, there is a potential for a period of 5 ft
seas on the far outer waters. Haze from Canadian wildfires have
been seen making it out over the waters, which could reduce
visibility. Fog possible tonight into tomorrow morning. Rain
showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible tonight into
tomorrow. Winds relatively light and variable before becoming
steadily southerly tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Winds generally below small craft levels through
the forecast period. Wave heights could approach borderline
small craft levels (5 feet) Sunday and again Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/TWD
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Brennan/TWD/Foisy
Marine...Brennan/TWD/Foisy