420
FXUS61 KCAR 230217
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
917 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass to the south of Nova Scotia Saturday
morning and exit across the Maritimes through Sunday. High
pressure builds toward the region Monday. Low pressure
approaches from the west Tuesday and will lift to the north of
the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:17 PM Update: A strong upper level jet and diffluent flow
aloft off the New England coast are leading to the development
of a surface low east of Long Island. The low is expected to
deepen significantly overnight with a 975 millibar low to pass
just south of Nova Scotia Saturday morning. There are areas of
light rain and drizzle across the CWA, but expect that
precipitation will begin to fill in across the Gulf of Maine and
spread north into the area overnight. As the low deepens the
wind will pick up out of the NNE, and this may lead to downslope
into portions of eastern Aroostook County where not much more
than light rain or drizzle may fall overnight. The best chance
of any moderate to briefly heavier rain would be Downeast. Minor
updates for the remainder of tonight based on the latest radar
trends and observations.

Previous discussion:
The shortwave energy from the first low pressure system will
continue north tonight, giving some brief clearing in the south.
High res models show some dry air working into the south before
midnight before the next low pressure system develops over the
waters and moves N into the region. Rain will move back into the
area early tonight. The 925mb model temps show that NW flow
will bring cooler air into the north, especially into the North
Woods. With the cooler surface temps later in the night, decided
to include a rain/snow mix in the north.

By Saturday, the developing low over the waters will intensify
and track towards Nova Scotia. The main concern will be the LLJ
and tightening pressure gradients with the NW flow. Some high
res models show a 15 mb difference between the NW to SE of the
region, thus gusty winds are expected for all of Saturday. The
highest winds are expected on the downslope of the higher
terrain, with localized gusts up to 40 mph. Rain will continue
across the region with rain/snow in the North Woods. Once cooler
air works into the north towards the evening, rain/snow should
spread further south into the Central Highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vertically stacked low pressure system by Nova Scotia brings an
active weather pattern this weekend, as a very tight pressure
gradient develops Saturday night into Sunday over Maine. As the
low moves northward, winds on Sunday would bring in some colder
air to the northern Maine. Once the low goes out into the
Atlantic Sunday night, ridging begins to build in from the west
on Monday, bringing some relatively calm conditions for the rest
of the short term period.

Saturday night, precipitation is going to heavily depend on how
the surface temperatures act. Currently, northern regions, such
as the North Woods, will be below freezing majority of the
night, with portions of eastern Aroostook county flirting with
temperatures at or a degree above freezing. Models seem to be in
agreement that snow is expected in the northwest, with some
light snow chances primarily north of Danforth. Higher
elevations also have increased snow total chances. Downeast and
Bangor region is forecast to be above freezing, and as a result,
have rain falling. North Woods could see snow totals ranging
from 1-2 inches of snow, and eastern Aroostook is forecast to
be under an inch.

Skies are forecast to be overcast Sunday, and and turn to
partially cloudy on Monday. Winds are expected to be out of the
northwest, with strong gusts Saturday night into Monday. High
temperatures will generally be in the low-to-mid 40s. Low
temperatures on Monday could be in the low-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging moves out of the region Tuesday, as another low pressure
system from the Great Lakes region pushes in from the west.
Expect mostly cloudy skies throughout the majority of early next
week. Chances for precipitation increase on Monday night, which
is currently predicted to fall as snow throughout most of the
region. Tuesday into Wednesday, snow may fall in the northern
portion of Maine, and rain fall in areas south of Houlton.
Models are hinting towards another system moving up along the
coast, bringing some precipitation around Thanksgiving. If
traveling, continue to monitor the forecast for updates!
Temperatures are expected to follow a decreasing trend
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to MVFR for all terminals overnight and Friday
in rain and low cigs. Overnight, NE winds 5-10 kts, increasing
to 10-15 kts and gusty late. For Saturday, NNE winds 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 35 kts. LLWS Saturday at the northern
terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR possible due to snow/rain reducing
visibility. LLWS currently forecast. Winds NW, gusting between
30-35kts, with isolated areas of 40kts possible.

Sunday...MVFR possible, due to snow/rain, gradually getting
better throughout the day. Winds NW gusting around 30-35kts
possible.

Sunday night into Monday night...Chance for MVFR late Sunday
night at northern terminals due to lingering precipitation. Precipitation
is expected to clear out by early Monday morning, bringing VFR
conditions. Winds out of the NW, with gusts 15-20kts possible.

Tuesday into Tuesday night.MVFR/IFR possible due to snow. Winds
from the SW and gusts around 15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind will increase overnight into Saturday with
gusts reaching gale force by Saturday morning as low pressure
deepens south of Nova Scotia. A Gale Warning has been issued
for all of Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force conditions are expected Saturday night
into Sunday night, with winds from the NW. Calm conditions
forecast for the rest of early next week, with winds shifting
from the NW to SE on Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/LaFlash
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...CB/LaFlash/Brennan
Marine...CB/LaFlash/Brennan