666
FXUS61 KCAR 050232
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1032 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. An
occluded front will approach late tonight then cross the region
Friday morning. A cold front will push into the area Saturday
and stall as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. The
cold front will continue east of the region Sunday into Monday
as an upper trough moves across.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. At the
same time, an occluded front will begin to approach northwest
Maine late tonight. Clouds will increase across the region
through the early morning hours. A weakening line of showers in
advance of the occluded front will begin to cross mostly
northern and western portions of the forecast area late
tonight. Patchy/areas of fog will also develop overnight. Low
temperatures will range from around 50 to the mid 50s north, to
the mid to upper 50s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for
current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures,
clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
Friday, trough continues moving through Canada, with the
associated cold front moving east into New England. Weak rain
showers throughout the northern and central Maine into the
afternoon, but rain totals look to be relatively light, with far
western Maine in the North Woods region potentially getting up
to a tenth of an inch. Skies remain cloudy, and daytime highs in
the low 70s. Friday night into Saturday, steadier rain showers
begin to move in along the cold front from northwest to
southeast. Winds do ramp up ahead of this front. Southerly flow
continues to bring chances for low stratus and potential fog
over the waters that advects into the Downeast. Overnight lows
in the 60s with warm air ahead of the front.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the main cold front will move across the area,
bringing a period of rain in the warm sector ahead of the front.
Winds will also increase with a southerly LLJ, bringing gusts
up to 25 mph, in particular further south. The rain band appears
to contain a fair bit of moisture, and NBM QPF amounts are
ranging from 0.5 inches Downeast to 1.5 inches at some locations
in the Central Highlands. That being said, ensembles show that
the number of solutions with >0.75 inches is fairly limited,
with a few solutions showing a very high amount. This would skew
the model blends to the larger end, and 50th percentile for the
NBM is less than 0.5". So although a higher amount is possible,
it is increasingly likely that the NBM may be overdoing QPF for
Saturday. This would have the most impact for Interior
Downeast, where 50th percentile does not indicate a wetting rain
and it is much needed. For this forecast, blended NBM
deterministic with 50th percentile to indicate an increasing
likelihood of a lower amount.

The front itself will move through on Sunday, lowering
temperatures for the beginning of next week. Lows Saturday night
will fall into the low 40s for the North Woods, and on Sunday,
highs on Sunday will only reach the mid-60s area wide. Winds
behind the front will weaken slightly as they become more
westerly/northwesterly and remain fairly light through Sunday
evening.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cooling trend will continue Sunday night into Monday, with
temperatures falling into the mid-30s across the North Woods on
Monday night. This may necessitate a frost advisory, but we will
see how modified the air mass becomes and whether it truly
decouples overnight. Showers will linger Monday during the day
as the upper level low gradually shifts eastward, but by
Tuesday, high pressure and dry weather return.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR/MVFR conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR
levels overnight with patchy fog along with isolated/scattered
showers. MVFR/IFR conditions with isolated to scattered showers
Friday. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, conditions with isolated to
scattered showers Friday night. South/southeast winds 5 to 10
knots overnight. South winds winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots Friday, then 10 to 15 knots Friday night.

KBGR/KBHB: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, conditions overnight
through early Friday with areas of fog along with isolated
showers. MVFR/IFR conditions later Friday with isolated
showers. IFR/LIFR conditions Friday night. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. South winds winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots Friday, then 10 to 15 knots Friday
night.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...MVFR dropping to IFR in low clouds and
rain. Possible LIFR at northern sites. South wind.

Saturday night...IFR/occasional LIFR across the south. IFR improving to MVFR over
the north. S wind shifting to W then NW.

Sunday...Improving to MVFR in the south and to VFR in the north. Light N wind.

Sunday night...MVFR becoming VFR south. VFR north. W wind.

Monday...VFR. Gusty W wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight
through Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions begin Friday
night, when seas get up to 5ft and gusts to 25kts possible over
outer waters. Patchy/areas of fog overnight into Friday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions will continue through
Saturday into Saturday evening. Winds will periodically drop
below 25kts during this period, however, seas are expected to
remain above 5 feet for the duration. On Sunday, both winds and
seas will drop below small craft conditions and remain there
through Tuesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 11 PM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Brennan
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Norcross/LF
Marine...Norcross/Brennan/LF