884
FXUS61 KCAR 030659
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
231 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east Sunday with a weak cold front
approaching from the north. The cold front passes through the
area Monday before high pressure builds in for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper-level trough is currently exiting the area making for a
mostly clear and dry night. Radiational cooling will likely be
limited, however, due to the advection of Canadian wildfire smoke by
WNW winds aloft. Still, expect some patchy fog in the river valleys
but this will likely be more limited in areal coverage and density
than previous nights.

On Sunday, zonal WNW flow continues to advect wildfire smoke in
from Canada. Expect smoke density to be increasing throughout
the day with the highest concentrations over the north. Models show
mixing up to about 825mb, which may only reach about 850 to 875mb
given the reduced heating but even this should still mix down smoke
to the surface which will contribute to reduced visibilities. The
reduced heating will also likely result in lower temperatures so
undercut the NBM by a few degrees. While a chance for some showers
and possibly a thunderstorm still exists over the crown of Maine
Sunday afternoon in response to an approaching cold front, the
reduced solar radiation due to the smoke will likely limit the
overall instability. Thus, decreased chance of thunder from the NBM
over the north.

Smoke sticks around Sunday night through Monday but should
improve from north to south as northerly flow behind a weak cold
front clears most of it out. The cold front will be weakening
during this time but my still be able to produce an isolated
shower or storm somewhere over the Central Highlands to Interior
Downeast region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night: The weak cold front should exit the region early.
Models continue to show some moisture along the Downeast coast
before midnight. However, this could develop into more of a
drizzle to mist environment. Decided to leave this out of the
forecast until high res models can capture it. Otherwise, clear
skies in the north and cool N flow should drop temps into the
upper 40s. The south should reach into the upper 50s due to the
lingering cloud cover.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: High pressure will settle into the
region. Expect mostly clear skies with high temps in the upper
70s and low temps in the low to mid 50s. Expect low RH with calm
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure should remain in the region until the end of the
week. Extended models indicate the next possible system showing
up on Saturday as a cold front, but models are very inconsistent
with the timing. As of this update, the NBM keeps the rain out
of the region through the weekend. Temps should be near normal
with a gradual increase to the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with reduced visibilities due to Canadian
wildfire smoke expected with the greatest visibility reductions
for northern terminals. A slight chance of a shower over
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI during the afternoon. A thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out but is unlikely with too low confidence to include in
TAF. Winds SW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with reduced visibitilies from wildfire
smoke. Winds SW around 5 kt.

Monday... VFR/MVFR for northern terminals and MVFR/IFR for
southern terminals with reduced visibilities due to wildfire
smoke. Smoke should clear out north to south throughout the day.
NW winds 5 to 10 kts.



SHORT TERM: Monday night-Thu...VFR. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through this
time period.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions through
this time period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Melanson/LaFlash
Marine...Melanson/LaFlash