841
FXUS61 KCAR 250007
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
807 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach from the west tonight, then
cross the region Monday and Monday night, while its parent low
passes well to the north. A series of troughs of low pressure
cross the area Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by high
pressure building to the south Wednesday night. A cold front
will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night. Another
trough of low pressure crosses the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
730pm Update...
Latest radar trends and high resolution models show a slower
onset of showers into Monday morning and have adjusted pops
accordingly. Expect mainly the North Woods and the Downeast
coast to see any showers, and then mostly after midnight.

The main thing for tonight into Monday morning will be patchy to
possibly areas of fog. Given how moist the low levels are, and
the slowed onset of rainfall, the fog could be a bit more
widespread than currently forecast with a small chance it could
be locally dense at times. Will need to continue to monitor.

Otherwise only minor changes were made with this update to
reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance.

Previous Discussion...
The cold front will continue to push into
the region tonight while the developing low pressure system in
the Mid Atlantic progresses north across the east coast. For
early tonight, high res models show the majority of rain showers
staying in the North Woods and weathers St John Valley. S winds
will gradually decrease tonight with clouds remaining. A high
moisture boundary layer and weak mixing should produce patchy
fog tonight and mild temps. By Monday, the front will start to
move E as the southern low moves NE. For the morning, rain
showers from the low will move into Downeast, though higher
amounts expected in Washington county. Rain showers from the
front will move across the region from NW to SE throughout the
day. By the afternoon, instability should increase enough to
bring isolated thunderstorms to the region following the front.

By Monday night, models show the showers exiting to the east
with most showers gone after midnight. As showers move on,
clouds will start to clear and light winds will switch to the
west. Prime conditions for temps to lower to the mid to low 50s
and patchy fog to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trof will approach Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight chance/chance of
showers across the north and mountains Tuesday, with
mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast. Could still have the chance
of evening showers across central/northern areas. Otherwise,
expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies north Tuesday night
with mostly clear skies Downeast. The upper trof crosses the
region Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies across northern
areas Wednesday, with only the slight chance of a shower. Mostly
sunny skies are expected Downeast. The upper trof exits across
the Maritimes Wednesday night, while a cold front crossing
Quebec province approaches the Saint Lawrence Valley late.
Mostly clear/partly cloudy skies will occur across northern
areas, with mostly clear skies Downeast, Wednesday night. Near
normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures will occur
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will cross the region Thursday. Expect partly
sunny skies along with a chance of showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms, across northern and central areas Thursday in
advance of the cold front. Mostly/partly sunny skies will
occur Downeast. The cold front will exit across the Gulf of
Maine Thursday night with an upper level disturbance
approaching late. Could still have the chance of showers,
slight chance of an evening thunderstorm, across northern and
central areas Thursday night. A weakening line of showers could
then approach Downeast areas. The upper level disturbance will
cross the region Friday with a chance of showers north, slight
chance Downeast. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. High
pressure should build across the region Saturday into Sunday
with generally mostly/partly sunny skies with only the slight
chance of showers. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level
temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR at all terminals this evening
with MVFR conditions developing after midnight. IFR or lower conditions
are likely at southern terminals late tonight/early Monday
morning and possible at northern terminals - for now have the
highest confidence at KFVE and KCAR so have in the TAFs there.
Conditions should improve to MVFR at all but KBHB by around
midday. KFVE and KBGR could then join KBHB in IFR or lower
conditions yet again late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening.

Winds should be southerly at 10KT or less through the TAF
period, with a couple of exceptions. KCAR/KPQI/KHUL could see a
period of G15-20KT Monday afternoon and KBHB could see some
light and variable winds overnight tonight into Monday morning.

Monday night...Probably becoming IFR or lower throughout Monday
evening.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Generally VFR. A slight
chance/chance of showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
north. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night.
West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. Southwest winds 5
to 10 knots Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of showers and
thunderstorms north. VFR Downeast. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15
knots.

Thursday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with a chance
of showers. Slight chance of an evening thunderstorm. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers north. VFR with a
slight chance of showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight, Monday, and Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas possible Tuesday.
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms developing late over the Maine and
Quebec border later this afternoon, continuing into Monday and
Tuesday. The trend for this system has been drier, with the
only wetting rains expected along the mountains and northwest to
the Quebec border including the North Woods and St. John
Valley. Elsewhere, rainfall generally 0.1 to 0.2 inch expected
including Eastern Aroostook, Upper Penobscot Valley, Bangor
Region and Downeast. We are currently evaporating 0.1 to 0.25
inch of water from the soil daily which means little rainfall
will result in only temporary help in fire weather concerns.

Drier weather, lower RHs and steady light winds are possible
Tuesday through Thursday. Only a few shower chances mainly in the
North Woods and far North. This will continue the fire weather
concerns into late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Maloit
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...LaFlash/Maloit/Norcross
Marine...LaFlash/Maloit/Norcross
Fire Weather...