767
FXUS61 KCAR 311013
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
513 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross the region today. Another low will
cross the Gulf of Maine tonight then exit across the Maritimes
Saturday. High pressure will cross the region later Saturday
into Sunday. Another low crosses the region Monday then exits
across the Maritimes Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak low pressure will cross the region today, drawing a cold
front south across the forecast area this afternoon. Light snow
will accompany the low, mostly this morning through early
afternoon. Snow accumulations today will generally be around an
inch or less. High pressure will build north of the region
tonight, while another low tracks across the southern Gulf of
Maine. Snow will again develop across Downeast areas tonight
with snow accumulations generally expected to range from 1 to 2
inches, possibly up to 3 inches along the Downeast coast. Snow
totals will diminish northward across the remainder of the
forecast area, tapering to less than an inch across northern
Aroostook county. High temperatures today will range from the
upper teens to lower 20s north, to around 30 interior Downeast
with lower to mid 30s along the Downeast coast. Low
temperatures tonight will range through the single digits below
zero north, to around 10 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the steady snow will have ended over Downeast by Saturday
12z expect for right along the immediate shoreline. Dry air
associated with high pressure will be moving in during the day on
Saturday. Clearing skies will move in from north to south and leave
a mostly sunny day on tap areawide. Have delayed clearing Downeast
from what NBM suggests as upr level trof will be over us through at
least 15z Sunday.  Highs will range from the single digits north to
around 20 Downeast.  Even though the sun will be shining it will
still be brisk with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph, leading to
wind chills below zero across the north.

Temps are trending down on Saturday night as high pressure will be
building in. Depending on how quickly high moves may be able to drop
down close to mins reached on the 22nd of this month, which so far
has been the coldest night of the season. Clear skies, light winds
and a 6-10 inch snow depth over northwestern areas along with H9
temps forecast to drop down to around -20C (same as H9 temps
recorded the morning of the 22nd) temps should easily be able to
drop into the minus 20s over the valleys in the North Woods.
However, any mixing will help keep temps elevated and will be
refined as we get closer in.

High pressure will crest over the CWA on Sunday with warm front
approaching. Return flow expected by 18z and cannot rule out light
snow developing late afternoon in isentropic lift. Steadier snow
looks to hold off until Sunday evening with overrunning developing,
with highest snow amounts along the coastal front. Snow accums look
to range between 2-4 inches along the coast, into the Bangor Region
and interior Downeast with nrn areas seeing between 1-2 inches.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very weak low looks to develop on the coastal front on Monday
morning, then lifting north during the morning hours. There may be a
brief break in snow as dry slot works in late morning into early
afternoon before main low moves across northern Maine in the
afternoon into the evening hours. Wrap-around snow showers in
cyclonic flow expected Monday night with cold front crossing the CWA
by 06z Tuesday.

Temps on Tuesday will drop back down toward normal values with highs
in the upr teens to lower 20s acrs the north and upper 20s over
Downeast. As is typical with systems moving into the Maritimes,
Tuesday will be brisk with winds gusting up to 25 mph once again.
High pressure expected to build into the area Tuesday night and with
clear skies and light winds expect yet another round of below zero
across the north. As usual how cold locations will reach Wednesday
morning will depend on movement of high pressure.

By 12z Wednesday medium range guidance begins to introduce
uncertainty into forecast with troffing from EC still over our CWA
while GFS introducing a very subtle upr ridge and CMC keeping flow
aloft zonal. This brings differences in how soon precip can move
into the area, ranging from as soon as Wednesday evening to as late
as Thursday afternoon. Either way it appears there will be a
significant system in the offing around the middle to end of next
week.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with light snow this
morning through early afternoon, then VFR/MVFR through the
remainder of the afternoon. Across northern areas tonight,
VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow. Across Downeast areas tonight,
VFR/MVFR, lowering to IFR/LIFR with snow. Southwest/west winds
around 10 knots, becoming north today. North/northeast winds 10
to 15 knots tonight. Southwesterly low level wind shear this
morning.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW 5-15kts gusting to 25kts Sat
afternoon becoming light WNW Saturday night, then SSW 5kts on
Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday...IFR/LIFR in snow. S 5-10kts.

Monday night...MVFR improving to VFR late. W 5-15kts gusting to
25kts. LLWS possible.

Tuesday...MVFR cigs possible over northern Aroostook terminals with
VFR elsewhere. NW 5-15kts, gusting to 25kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, today
through 11 PM this evening. On the intra-coastal waters, a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect through noon. Small craft
advisory conditions could then develop on all the waters again
later tonight. A chance of snow and rain today. Snow tonight.
Light freezing spray later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory likely needed Saturday and Saturday
night for both seas and winds. Southerly winds ramp up Sunday
evening with warm front with gales possible over the outer waters
late Sunday night. Seas look to range from 9ft over the outer waters
to 6 feet in the intracoastal zone in southerly swell coming in.
Brief break in gales expected on Monday before increasing again late
Monday behind cold front moving through. Headlines will definitely
be needed Sunday night through Tuesday. Light freezing spray
expected Saturday becoming moderate over the waters for a brief
period of time Saturday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Norcross/Buster
Marine...Norcross/Buster