569
FXUS61 KCAR 021838
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
238 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches tonight, then transits the area
Thursday and Thursday evening. An upper level low will cross the
region from late Thursday night into Friday night. Weak high
pressure then builds in through Saturday, then exits to the east
Saturday night. A cold front slowly approaches from the
northwest Sunday and Sunday night, then slowly pushes south into
Maine on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the forecast area this afternoon,
keeping the region partly sunny with a scattered cu field.
Enough diurnal heating has been present this afternoon for some
of the cumulus to develop further into some localized showers,
mostly along the sea breeze boundary. All showers that develop
this afternoon will quickly dissipate this evening as the sun
begins to set and surface heating begins to wane. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are in store for overnight tonight, and
patchy fog may develop, particularly along the coast.

For Thursday, a cold front will push through the forecast area,
entering the North Woods from the NW in the late morning and
pushing through the Downeast region by Thursday evening. Given
the timing of this boundary through the region coinciding with
peak diurnal heating, instability will be maximized for the
current environment. The HREF mean MUCAPE values for the
forecast area peak at around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and the NAM
forecast sounding shows around 40 kts of shear. HREF mean PWATs
also sit around 1.0 to 1.4 inches, which is generally between
the 75th and 90th percentiles for this time of the year,
suggesting that plenty of moisture will be available to support
showers and storms, but not necessarily a large heavy rain
threat. With all of these ingredients together, rain showers
will push through the entire region, with thunderstorms likely.
There is also the chance for more organized thunderstorms along
this line, especially Thursday afternoon as it exits the North
Woods and Central Highlands and crosses into eastern Aroostook
county and the Interior Downeast region. With forecast soundings
displaying an inverted-V in the lower levels, steep low level
lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/km and moderate mid level
lapse rates around 7 C/km, and a pocket of cooling dry air aloft
ahead of the next upper level low, the environment will be
primed for gusty winds with any organized thunderstorms that
develop. Isolated instances of damaging winds are possible with
how the ingredients are looking at the moment.

Storms will decrease in intensity and number into Thursday
evening, with showers gradually shifting SE and out of the
forecast area Thursday night as the front exits out of the
region. Mild temperatures in store Thursday night with lows in
the mid to upper 50s, and likely high dewpoints in the wake of
the storms as well, though with a new air mass in place and
potentially some lingering winds, the threat for fog is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models still differ on the timing/track of an upper level
low for Friday/Friday evening. The CMC-Regional is most
progressive, and farthest north, with the low exiting to the
NE into the southern Canadian Maritimes Friday/Friday night.
Most other models show the upper low tracking across at least
Northern Maine on Friday, and possibly not exiting into New
Brunswick until Friday evening. For now limit chance pops and
for the most part slight chance of thunder across the North
where there is the most model consensus the upper low will
track. All solutions indicate the upper low should be to the
east after midnight, with northern stream ridging building in
by the overnight hours, so went dry from mid evening on. Highs
Friday should be around 5 degrees below normal and lows Friday
night near to slightly below normal.

Northern stream ridging crosses the area on Saturday, with
associated subsidence keeping things dry with minimal cloud
cover, except for maybe some increase in high clouds in the
afternoon. Highs on Saturday should be around 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northern stream ridging exits to the east Saturday night,
depending on how fast it leaves, a weak passing northern stream
short wave could trigger some isolated showers mainly across the
north.

The region is in between a northern stream closed low over NE
Quebec and the Bermuda High Sunday-Sunday night. Depending on if
there are any meaningful shortwaves embedded in this flow will
determine if the region sees any isolated-scattered
showers/thunderstorms, mainly across the North.

A northern stream trough approaches Monday, then crosses the
area Monday night and Tuesday, then exits to the east Tuesday
night. The models differ on the timing with this system with
the GFS the most progressive and the CMC the least with the
ECMWF in between. Went generally with the middle of the road for
timing, consistent with the NBM. Scattered showers and possibly
a rumble of thunder Monday/Monday evening, then just scattered
showers late Monday night/Tuesday. Should see some drying
Tuesday night, especially across the north.

Most guidance shows northern stream ridging building in on
Wednesday, but the CMC and a few ensemble members bring a
northern stream shortwave through. Limit pops overland to at
most slight chance, with northern Aroostook kept dry.

Temperatures should be above normal Saturday night-Monday, then
near normal through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: VFR across all terminals tonight, with winds
becoming light and variable overnight. Patchy fog possible but
any reductions in visibility likely to be brief. Showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday beginning by around 18z and carrying
through the evening, with VFR conditions dropping to MVFR/IFR.
Light S winds will shift W behind the storms, becoming light and
variable into Thursday night and a return to VFR conditions.

BGR and coastal terminals: VFR through this evening. FG likely
returns tonight along the coast, but is yet to be seen how far
inland this reduction in visibility will reach. BHB likely to
see some IFR/LIFR, while BGR will either maintain VFR or fall to
IFR should the fog bank make it in. Showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday beginning after 18z and carrying through the evening,
with VFR conditions dropping to MVFR/IFR. Light S winds will
shift W behind the storms, becoming light and variable into
Thursday night and a return to VFR conditions.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night-.Friday evening...VFR, except MVFR possible in
any showers/thunderstorms. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible late
Thursday night-Friday.

Late Friday night-Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday-Sunday night...VFR, except MVFR possible in any
showers/thunderstorms - mainly across the North. LLWS possible.
SW-WSW winds G15-25KT possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday...MVFR or lower possible, with lowest conditions with the
strongest convection. Gusty winds possible in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight through Thursday night. Seas stay at or below 4 ft over
the outer waters, and at or below 3ft for the inner waters.
Winds from the SW tonight, becoming S by Thursday, then offshore
out of the NW Thursday night. Patchy fog expected to lower
visibility late tonight. Rain may return by Thursday evening
with thunderstorms possible.


SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 3 ft or less Friday-
Saturday night. The pressure gradient tightens somewhat Sunday
and remains so into Monday, with winds up to 15 kt. A persistent
SW flow could develop sufficient swell to bring seas to SCA
levels on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Maloit