Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
315 FXUS61 KCAR 031806 CCA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Caribou ME 206 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains to our south into tonight. A weak cold front approaches from the north late tonight, pushes down into Maine on Saturday, then lifts back north as a warm front Saturday night. The region is then in between high pressure offshore and a storm system tracking across southern Canada Sunday and Monday. The cold front associated with this storm system approaches Monday night, then crosses the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds in on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... This Afternoon... Quiet afternoon with mostly clear skies and just a couple high/mid level clouds. Surface high pressure is centered well to our south, with low-level W/SW flow and a decent W/SW breeze around 10 mph ahead of the approaching cold front, which as of early afternoon is still a few hundred miles NW of Quebec City. The atmosphere is still quite dry, especially at low and mid- levels. Temperatures are warmer than average this afternoon, topping out around 70. Tonight... Weak upper level shortwave and weak surface cold front continue approaching from the NW, likely getting into far Northern Maine toward dawn Saturday. The front is very weak and moisture- starved, and conditions tonight will likely remain mostly clear ahead of the front. Lows will be 5-10F warmer than last night, as the airmass overall will be a bit warmer, plus there will be a few more clouds and more of a breeze just off the surface that will make radiational cooling less than ideal. Lows tonight in the low 40s to low 50s. Can`t rule out patchy river/lake fog, but not expecting too much. Saturday... Weak cold front slides south through the area in the morning. Again, this front is quite weak, with only isolated showers mainly over NE Aroostook, and dry elsewhere. A few more clouds behind the front, with perhaps partly cloudy skies over the north especially mid to late morning. Only a slight temperature drop with the front in the north, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, but actually warmer than Friday Downeast (mid to upper 70s) thanks to the shift in wind from SW to NW with an offshore component preventing marine moderation in temperatures. NW breeze 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph. Saturday Night... Very weak surface high pressure builds in as an upper level ridge begins to amplify just to our west. Still some mid-high level clouds streaming in from the NW, with partly cloudy skies. Can`t rule out a few showers in the extreme north, but vast majority of models keep any light precip north of the border. Can`t rule out patchy valley fog again. Lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s with light winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Deep layered ridging crosses the area Sunday and Sunday night, with its axis moving to the east on Monday. The result will be continued dry conditions, with minimal cloud cover Sunday and Sunday night, with some increasing high clouds on Monday. Highs Sunday should be around 15 degrees above normal, lows 10-15 degrees above normal Sunday night, and highs around 20 degrees above normal on Monday. The highs on Monday could reach record levels at some locations. Refer to the climate section of the AFD for details. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The region is under SW flow aloft Monday night-Tuesday, as a northern stream trough approaches from the west. The forcing should be far enough west to keep things dry Monday night, but should see increasing chances for showers, especially over the northwest 1/3 of the CWA on Tuesday. A northern stream trough approaches Tuesday night then crosses the area Wednesday. There should be a decent round of showers ahead of the trough Tuesday night. For now have held off on mentioning thunder, but if the system speeds up or slow downs so that the precipitation occurs during daylight hours, then could see a need to add it in if that occurs. Precipitation should quickly taper off early Wednesday from NW to SE as the system exits. Northwest flow sets up Wednesday night-Thursday. It should be dry with minimal cloud cover. Northern stream ridging crosses the area Thursday night, it should be dry. Even with a northern stream shortwave trough crossing the area on Friday, the low-mid levels should be sufficiently dry to preclude any precipitation. Temperatures Monday night-Tuesday night should be above normal, with record highs possible yet again on Tuesday (see the climate section of the AFD for details). Temperatures should be near normal Wednesday, then below normal Wednesday night-Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Rest of This Afternoon... VFR everywhere. Generally SW winds around 10 kts, decreasing to 5 kts toward sunset. Tonight... Mainly VFR. Can`t totally rule out localized fog, but chance at any TAF site is less than 20 percent. SW wind 5 kts or less. NW winds from roughly 3-6z get strong enough aloft for potential marginal wind shear. Didn`t put it in TAFs for now, but will keep an eye on it. Saturday... Mainly VFR. Can`t rule out intermittent MVFR ceilings from about 13-17z from PQI north, but think that if MVFR occurs, it will not be the predominant conditions. Left out of TAF for now. Give FVE a 40 percent chance of having MVFR at some point, and 25 percent for CAR/PQI. Less than 25 percent chance of MVFR ceilings south of PQI. NW wind 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts. Saturday Night... Starting out VFR. Patchy fog after 5z could bring localized IFR. A bit better chance than tonight, with about a 30 percent chance of IFR or lower at PQI/HUL/BGR/BHB. Light winds. SHORT TERM: Sunday-Monday night...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog late at night/early in the morning. SW winds G15KT possible Sunday afternoon. LLWS possible Sunday night. SW winds 15-20KT possible Monday. Tuesday...MVFR possible late at Northern terminals, otherwise VFR. SW winds G15-20KT possible. Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday...VFR. NE-NW winds G15-25KT possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Below small craft through Saturday night with little or no marine fog. SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less from Sunday through Monday morning. The pressure gradient increases Monday afternoon and stays relatively tight through Wednesday, with conditions right around SCA levels possible during this time frame as a result. && .FIRE WEATHER... No wetting rain in sight through Tuesday. Could see some gusty southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Good RH recovery expected during the overnight hours the next few nights, especially in valleys. Afternoon RHs will be mainly in the 40s to low 50s the next few days. The next chance for wetting rains is Tuesday night, with the potential for some place between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch of rainfall. Wednesday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for Saturday October 4th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 79/2017 68 Bangor 79/2017 77 Millinocket 79/2001 75 Houlton 78/2001 69 Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 74/1946 81 Bangor 84/1946 80 Millinocket 82/1946 81 Houlton 73/1957 80 Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 75 Bangor 84/1946 79 Millinocket 81/1946 80 Houlton 76/2016 78 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...Foisy/Maloit Marine...Foisy/Maloit Fire Weather...Foisy/Maloit Climate...Foisy/Maloit