060
FXUS61 KCAR 221623
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1223 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach tonight and cross the
region today. High pressure will approach on Wednesday, then
push through on Thursday. A weak low pressure system cross the
area Thursday night. A second low pressure system will approach
later on Friday and move through the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:20 PM Update...A few showerd move east on the Downeast coast based
on radar. Observing some showers to the west that are tracking
in from Canada. Extended patchy fog a little more north and
extended duration into the afternoon, as visibility in certain
locations goes down to 2 miles. Skies still overcast, but
clearing is starting to occur in southern New Hampshire and
moving into southern Maine. Updated forecast to match current
observations. Previous forecast on track.

Previous Discussion... A low pressure system
is tracking into Quebec this morning. Light rain from this
system is overspreading the region at this time. Rain will
mostly come to an end for the Bangor region and Downeast by this
afternoon. However, rain showers are likely to hang on in the
North through the day. This is due to these areas being closer
to the low track and best dynamics. A secondary low will begin
to develop near the Downeast coast this afternoon. This will
lock in cooler air over the area through the day. Most places
will see high temperatures stuck in the 40s, which is below
normal for this time of year.

The secondary low will begin to strengthen over the Canadian
Maritimes tonight, and absorb the primary low. This will mostly
bring an end to the rain showers this evening as the dynamics
shift eastward. That said, there will still be the threat of a
few rain showers in the Crown of Maine through tonight. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 30s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the
week, keeping fair weather in the area and partly cloudy skies.
With mildly steep lapse rates around 6 C/km and small but
nonzero elevated CAPE, especially across the north, there could
be a few convectively driven rain showers through Wednesday
afternoon, coupled with peak diurnal heating. These factors will
all drop off into the evening hours, and any showers that do
develop will quickly dissipate into Wednesday night.

The ridge axis will pass through the area on Thursday, with
return flow into Thursday night. This shift in ridge position
will aid in temperatures lifting into the mid 50s in the north
and around 60 Downeast. Recent guidance trends show that there
could be a quick moving shortwave trough behind the ridge of
high pressure, which could result in scattered showers Thursday
night moving from west to east across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next low pressure system will approach Friday and cross the
forecast area Friday night through the day on Saturday. This
system will have more substantial moisture support. The low
track has shifted south in the last couple of model runs, with
greatest baroclinic forcing crossing the Downeast region where
heaviest rainfall is most likely with this forecast. There
remains some uncertainty in the exact track and size of the low,
with the CMC trending the driest and keeping most of the precip
off-shore. Timing uncertainty exists as well with precip onset
being anywhere between early Friday night through mid Saturday
morning. High pressure then returns Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR around this morning with -SHRA and low
cigs. Occasional LIFR possible Downeast today with BCFG.
Conditions improve to MVFR from southwest to northeast tonight.
S-SE winds 5-15 kts


SHORT TERM:
Wed - Fri: Generally VFR across all terminals, with brief MVFR
possible in any rain showers, which will primarily affect
northern terminals. W to NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20
kts each afternoon and light and variable each night.

Fri: VFR early becoming MVFR/IFR in the afternoon in rain over
Downeast terminals. Winds N at VFR conditions early this morning becoming MVFR by
daybreak with low cigs and -SHRA. IFR likely after 12z with low
cigs.northern terminals and S at Downeast terminals around 5
kts. Wind directions could vary depending on storm track.

Fri night - Sat: Decreasing to MVFR/IFR for all terminals in
rain. E winds shifting NE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Wind directions could vary depending on storm track.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to mostly remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through today and tonight. A few SE
wind gusts could reach borderline SCA criteria (25 kts) during
the day today. Wave heights will be 2 to 4 feet today and
tonight. Rain showers and patchy fog could reduce visibility to
1 to 3 NM on the waters today.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are likely to remain below small
craft advisory through the end of the week. Winds may begin to
gust near 25 kts over the coastal waters on Saturday with the
passage of a low pressure system, though the timing and strength
of this system remain uncertain at this time. Seas could also
respond with this storm to around 5 to 6 ft over the weekend,
again mostly over the coastal waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Clark
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Brennan/Clark/AStrauser
Marine...Brennan/Clark/AStrauser