Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
750 FXUS61 KCAR 200515 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 115 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased confidence in a coastal low late this week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for patchy frost tonight and Monday night across the north. 2) A coastal low could impact at least Downeast Maine late this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Potential for patchy frost Monday night across the north. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Strong Canadian high pressure returns to the region Monday night. With mostly clear skies amd light winds during the overnight hours promoting favorable radiational cooling conditions. This likely will result in possible patchy frost. This should mainly be limited to Northern regions with better chances in low lying areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... A coastal low could impact at least Downeast Maine late this week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A piece of energy currently located over the Bahamas will slowly slide northward, along the east coast, through the coming days. By midweek, it will combine with a mid-level low tracking eastward across the mid-Atlantic and begin to consolidate as a surface low offshore. Timing and track of the system remains uncertain at this time. With strong subtropical ridging to the East, the speed and track of the low will depend on the placement and subsequent degradation of the strong Canadian high over Eastern Canada through the start of the weekend. Regardless of timing, the greatest chance for any impacts will be over Coastal Downeast. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z...VFR. Light, near calm, winds. Sunday...VFR. MVFR cigs may move in very late in the day with cigs between 025-030. S winds 5-10kts, gusting 15-20kts all terminals. Sunday night...MVFR/IFR in low cigs and showers through 06z. Light S winds, becoming NW late. Monday...MVFR/IFR early in patchy fog before lifting to VFR after sunrise. NW 5-10kts, gusting to 15-20kts in the afternoon. Monday night-Thursday...VFR, with a low chance of MVFR or lower in any patchy fog late Monday night. NE-NW winds G15-20KT possible Monday evening. NE-E winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday night-Wednesday at coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Seas and winds remain below small craft levels over all waters through Monday. Patchy fog reducing visibilities possible tonight. Sustained winds on the coastal ocean waters Monday night- Thursday should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less. On the waters from 25-60nm, the sustained winds should be 20 kt or less through Thursday. Seas on Thursday could build to 4-7 ft on the outer waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/PM/MB AVIATION...21/PM/MB