Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
305 FXUS61 KCAR 061906 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 306 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region tonight through Tuesday. A cold front will slowly cross the area Tuesday night through early Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mild south to southwest flow will continue tonight as high pressure continues to slide east out into the open waters of the western Atlantic. Expect mainly clear skies again tonight but some low stratus clouds may overspread Downeast areas late tonight. Lows will range from the mid to upper 50s across much of the region. Tuesday will be one more unseasonably warm day as south to southwest flow persists across the region in advance of an approaching cold front from Quebec. Record high afternoon temperatures are once again possible in some locations. Expect a mainly sunny start to the day followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees inland away from the coast. Some showers in advance of the front will begin to overspread the North Maine Woods by late afternoon and then spread east across the rest of northern and western Maine by sunset. The cold front will slowly cross the region reaching the coast toward daybreak Wednesday. Weak areas of low pressure will track northeast up along the front as it crosses the area Tuesday night, with a with a widespread soaking rainfall expected. A rumble of thunder is not totally out of the question Tuesday evening across northern areas. Lows Tuesday night will range from the mid 40s to around 50 across the north and lower to mid 50s from the Bangor region and Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday: The cold front will continue to progress through the state from the NW to the SE. By the morning, the front should have moved through the north. Though rainfall amounts have decreased, Downeast can expect about half an inch of rain through the morning. By the afternoon, rain is expected to exit over the waters. Temps around the upper 50s. Wednesday night: As high pressure moves into the region, pressure gradients will tighten and skies should begin to clear. Decide to increase wind gusts for the night due to the well mixed boundary layer above the LLJ. Temps expected to be near freezing. Thursday: The center of the high pressure moves across New England, relaxing pressure gradients and keeping skies mostly clear. Expect temps mainly in the low 50s for the day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure is expected to remain in the region for the rest of the week into the weekend. By Sunday night into Monday, extended models are hitting a possible tropical system tracking along the Atlantic coast and into New England. Track and timing of this system will depend on the strength of the upper level ridge over the Atlantic and the upper level trof over the Pacific west coast. Decided to stick with the NBM slight chance for this update. Temps near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through much of the daytime hours Tuesday. Small probability of IFR ceilings making it into KBHB and vicinity 09z to 13Z Tue, but confidence too low to include in the TAF. S to SW wind around 5 kt tonight and then 10 to 15 kt with G25kt Tuesday. Outlook for Tue night....MVFR/IFR. Rain. S to SW wind becoming W late. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain Downeast terminals, with Aroostook terminals improving to VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts to 25kts in the afternoon. Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. NW 5-15kts, gusts to 25kts Thursday. Thursday night-Sat...VFR. Light W winds becoming SW 5-10kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday morning, and then increase to SCA levels Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night. SHORT TERM: Seas diminish Wednesday morning along with winds. Fropa will bring nw winds to the waters Wednesday afternoon with gusts approaching marginal conditions once again Wednesday night. Seas will remain below 5ft Wednesday morning through the end of the week with winds below sca levels Thursday morning through Friday as high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather will continue through much of Tuesday. Afternoon relative humidity will generally range from 40 to 50 percent away from the immediate coast where it will be higher. Southwest winds will gust from 20 to 25 mph at times in the afternoon. A wetting rain is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with rainfall totals of up to an inch possible. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures are possible again on Tuesday. Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 79 Bangor 84/1946 77 Millinocket 81/1946 79 Houlton 76/2016 79 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-052. && $$ Near Term...TWD Short Term...ARL Long Term...ARL Aviation...TWD/ARL Marine...TWD/ARL Fire Weather... Climate...