072
FXUS61 KCAR 050332
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1132 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain to our south today. Low pressure will
approach tonight then cross the region Saturday. High pressure
will cross the region Sunday. Another low will cross the region
Monday then exit across the Maritimes Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:30 PM Update...Adjusted rain coverage to focus on band of
rain now cutting into the northwestern part of our region.
Modified cloud to to address corridor of clearer skies in the
central part of our region with more clouds west and east. Also
made some minor adjustments to temperatures.

Previous discussion...
Cloud cover will continue to increase through the late
afternoon and evening hours across the forecast area as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. As the associated cold
front makes its way into the CWA overnight, rain showers will
move in from west to east. Rain may hold off longer across
northeastern Aroostook county overnight as westerly winds behind
the front cascade down from the higher terrain to the west,
limiting instability until the surface front moves into the
area.

Patchy fog may develop ahead of the cold front, potentially
limiting visibility, and the greatest chance for dense fog
formation will be across the Downeast region. Fog may continue
until the cold front moves blows through the area.

Light and variable winds will increase behind the FROPA, with
breezy northwesterly winds through the day on Saturday. This
cold air advection, in combination with lingering rain showers
and overcast skies, will keep high temperatures more modest on
Saturday, with highs only lifting into the 50s across the north,
and lower 60s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Sat mid Eve, the back edge of shwrs with the exiting sfc low
and upper trof will be retreating ewrd thru NB with any
remaining isold shwrs ending late Sat Ngt. This will leave the
FA with msly cldy skies and patchy fog. Patchy fog should lift
by mid morn, but with only a skinny upper ridge advcng ovr the
FA from QB, cld cvr will hang on. some in the form of low ST/SC
and others in the way of high CI/CS/AC with the leading edge of
the cld canopy from the next system advcng from the Great Lakes.

Clds with this next system will cont to increase Sun Eve with
leading shwrs reaching Wrn and Nrn areas prior to daybreak Mon.
Shwrs will consolidate to steady rn durg the rn Mon as the the
occluded front apchs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Longer term models disagree with how fast/long rn lasts across
the FA, with the 12z dtmnstc GFS much faster than the
corresponding CanGem and spcly the ECMWF. Saying this, past 6-10
day CPC outlooks have favored slower/wetter solutions with a
deeper upper trof and more pronounced sfc low forming ovr the
Can Maritimes, and this is what the blended model guidance has
leaned with...looking much like the CanGem model solution. With
this in mind, we keep msly categorical rn PoPs going into Mon
Eve, slowly dmnshg to likely PoPs late Mon Ngt/Tue Morn with
patchy fog, then chc shwr PoPs by Tue Aftn.

Aftwrds, sig cooler and unsettled wx conditons will prevail ovr
the FA Tue Ngt thru Sat with the nearby presence of an upper low
for Tue Ngt thru Wed and the potential of another s/wv-upper low
from N Cntrl Can for Wed Ngt and Thu. It may be cold enough at
late Tue Ngt and Wed Ngt for rn/sn shwrs over higher trrn ovr
the NW/N Cntrl mtns, with perhaps an termination dusting of snfl
ovr highest trrn like Mt Katahdin. Blended long range models
then drop PoPs below chc late Thu Ngt with drier but cont`d cool
conditions on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tonight, conditions will deteriorate from south to
north as low stratus and fog begins to develop over all
terminals, with cigs falling to IFR and vis potentially dropping
to LIFR. A front will move in from the west late tonight,
bringing rain showers which could result in MVFR vis, and
continued MVFR/IFR cigs. Light and variable winds overnight will
quickly shift NW behind the frontal passage, increasing to 5 to
10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible Saturday afternoon.
Conditions will begin to improve from north to south through the
day on Saturday behind the front, lifting to MVFR and
potentially VFR late at northern terminals.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat Ngt - Sun Morn...all TAF sites MVFR-IFR
clgs/vsbys in isold shwrs and patchy fog. Lgt and vrbl winds.

Sun Aftn - Sun Eve...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Lgt and vrbl
winds.

Late Sun Ngt...all TAF sites MVFR clgs and intermittent vsbys in
shwrs. Lgt SE winds.

Mon - Tue Morn...all TAF sites low MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and
patchy fog. Lgt SE winds...becmg lgt W by Tue Morn.

Tue Aftn - Wed...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs with sct rn shwrs.
Downeast sites MVFR-low VFR clgs with isolated shwrs. Lgt WNW
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA tonight through
Saturday. Some patchy fog may limit visibility late tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns, then seas increase to
SCA msly ovr outer MZs likely from some long pd swell from
Hurricane Kirk ovr the Cntrl Atlc Mon Ngt and Tue. Kept close
to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs composed
of a short pd group with 2 to 3 sec pds and an open Atlc group
with 10 to 12 sec pds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Brennan/Bloomer
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...AStrauser/Brennan/VJN
Marine...AStrauser/Brennan/VJN