Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
833 FXUS61 KCAR 212258 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 658 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight, crest over the area Tuesday, then continue south of the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Update... Removed the mention of isolated showers per latest radar reflectivity imagery. The gusty wind will also diminish through early this evening. The current forecast is still in good shape thus no significant changes. See updated aviation section. previous discussion Winds begin to diminish a bit tonight as the high builds closer to the area. While skies will clear tonight, not expecting full decoupling except perhaps in the North Woods. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the 40s north of Katahdin. Currently forecasting lower 40s in the coldest valleys of the North Woods. These temperatures could drop a few degrees further if winds drop off more than expected. To the south of Katahdin, lows tonight are expected to be a couple of degrees either side of 50. More sunshine and lighter northwesterly winds Tuesday as the aforementioned high builds in closer. This will also bring in somewhat warmer 850mb temperatures. Thus, highs will reach into the 70s for most of the area. A weak upper disturbance will bring some more clouds in the late afternoon into the evening. Skies clear out and winds drop off as the disturbance moves out. How quickly skies clear out Tuesday night will determine how low temperatures get. At this time, forecasting lows in the 40s in the colder northern valleys, with lower to mid 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Warmer Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs generally in the upper 70s. Dewpoints will begin creeping up, but will still be quite comfortable with low 50s. Warmer and muggier on Thursday with low to mid 80s for temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ridging aloft flattens a bit with a weak shortwave moving in from the west over the top of the ridge. This could ignite some storms mainly in the north in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough and associated cold front approaches and moves through. Some uncertainty in the timing of the front, but Friday could be an active thunderstorm day as longer as the front doesn`t move through too fast and favors the slower end of the model solutions, which could maximum instability during the daytime on Friday especially central/Downeast. High precipitable waters in excess of 1.5 inches possible too, so heavy rain could also be a threat. Cold front moves offshore Friday night and look for a drier, though not really any cooler, airmass on Sunday. Moisture Sunday/Monday, with shower/storm chances returning possibly Sunday, and more likely Monday. Models overall are in good agreement for the extended and deviated very little from the NBM. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR is expected all terminals through Tue night. NW wind gusts will diminish through early this evening. NW wind 10 to 15 kt on Tue with few G20kt, then light and variable Tue night. SHORT TERM: Wednesday - Wednesday Night...VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. Slight chance for some advection fog around southern terminals. Thursday...Potential for MVFR at southern terminals for early morning fog. Mainly VFR at northern terminals, but a small chance of MVFR due to possible incoming rain and thunderstorms. SW winds 5-15 kts. Thursday Night - Friday...Periods of MVFR/IFR with showers and possible storms. Potential fog possible south Thursday night into Friday. SW winds 5-10 kts Thursday night, becoming W/NW Friday. Friday night - Saturday...VFR with NW wind 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Tue night. SHORT TERM: Chance of small craft seas and SW winds Thu/Fri. Better shot at seas hitting small craft levels than the winds. Otherwise, below small craft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD/Clark Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...TWD/Clark/Foisy Marine...TWD/Clark/Foisy