283
FXUS61 KCAR 180611
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
211 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased dew points today across southern 1/2 of the CWA.

- Adjusted POPs/Thunder chances to account for hi-res CAM trends
  across the region.

- 06z TAF update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Intermittent showers continue through Wednesday providing
some scattered help for ongoing drought conditions.

2) Areas of fog early this AM then again tonight. Fog could be
patchy dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog is most
likely in places that receive showers during the day.

3) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday
into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this
could bring to the developing drought at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent showers continue through Wednesday
providing some scattered help for ongoing drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A quasi-stationary front currently extends from SW to NE across
the northern most portions of the CWA. The front as of 2AM EDT
roughly extends from Van Buren back SW to Turner Brook and near
St. Zacharie along the Quebec Maine Borderlands. Can just pick
up the boundary via satellite data using the Nighttime
Microphysics scheme. Hi-res CAMs have this boundary drifting
southeast today slowly as it begins to washout over the CWA. At
the same time surface low pressure deepens near Georges Bank in
the Gulf of Maine. A very weak vort max will pass over the CWA
during the day today. Any fog and low ceilings this morning will
break and allow for some daytime heating north of the front and
south of the front with very little sunshine near the front.
However, any sunshine near the boundary will allow for isolated
to scattered showers to develop. Enough lift from the boundary
and any daytime heating could lead to a thunderstorm but much of
any convection today will be just showers. Confidence is low-
moderate on lightning since activity will struggle to climb high
enough to develop ice aloft. Temperatures will generally be in
the 70s across the area but much more humid with dew points in
upper 60s to near 70F along and south of the front. Any showers
may produce brief heavy downpours which will be helpful to the
ongoing D0-D1 drought conditions but widespread rainfall is
unlikely.

Another round of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms is
expected tomorrow afternoon. Todays quasi-stationary front will
wash out and tomorrow a cold front will approach from the NW
along with a 500mb shortwave. The front will be rapidly
weakening as it moves into our CWA so showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be confined to mainly northern areas. A few
degrees warmer tomorrow in the 70s to low 80s with 5-10 degree
lower dew points, except mid to upper 60s along the Downeast
coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Areas of fog early this AM then again tonight.
Fog could be patchy dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog
is most likely in places that receive showers during the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Patchy to areas of fog this morning across areas along and south
of the quasi-stationary front in the more moist/humid airmass.
Any showers today will be the focus for more fog tonight given
the light and variable winds expected. Patchy to areas of dense
fog is possible but confidence is low on how widespread the fog
will be based on the scattered nature of showers during the day.
Nighttime dense fog always adds challenges to driving conditions
with significant wildlife activity at night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... There is the potential for widespread rainfall
from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any,
relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A closed low tracks from near the Great Lakes on Sunday to
southwestern Quebec/Northern New England by Monday evening.
There is always more uncertainty than normal when talking about
closed lows, as models in general do not have a good track
record on the timing or track of these systems. With that said,
it is shown in some form in more ensembles than not, with
similar timing, so that does somewhat mitigate the typical
uncertainty for these types of systems.

Based on the ensemble consensus would expect warm advection
rain, with embedded convection from Sunday through Monday. The
latter is most likely in the afternoon/early evening. At this
point in time, given the inherent uncertainty in days 6 and 7 in
the forecast, plus the added uncertainty given the storm type
(even if somewhat mitigated by a degree of consensus in the
ensembles), it is to early to state what, if any, impacts this
system may have on the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early This Morning...IFR to LIFR cigs and reduced vsby in BR
are prevalent across KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, KBGR, and KBHB. KFVE
starts VFR but will see MVFR cigs and IFR vsby in BCFG and BR
develop by 08Z. Confidence in this at FVE is moderate. VCSH are
also expected early this morning at KPQI, KHUL, and KBGR. Winds
will be light and variable at 5 kts across most terminals, with
KFVE seeing 350 at 5 kts and KBGR seeing 170 at 5 kts.

Late Morning into Afternoon...Conditions will gradually improve
to MVFR cigs by 12Z at KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, KBGR, and KBHB, while
KFVE lifts to VFR. By 16Z to 17Z, VFR cigs are expected to
return across all terminals. VCSH will redevelop this afternoon
at KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, and KBGR. Between 18Z and 22Z, a PROB30 is
in place for -TSRA at KPQI and KHUL, which could bring brief
localized reductions in cigs and vsby. Confidence in storms is
low-moderate due to placement of a quasi-stationary boundary
that will drift today. Winds will remain light and variable at
5 kts, with KBHB winds shifting to 090 at 5 kts after 17Z.

Tonight... Predominantly VFR cigs this evening, though BCFG/BR
is expected to develop at KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, KBGR, and
KBHB near or just after 00Z, which may begin to lower vsby once
again. Confidence is low, but daytime rain locations have the
best chance of BR/FG. Winds will persist as light and variable
at up to 5 kts across all terminals.

Wednesday: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR for
north terminals into the afternoon as isolated showers and
thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog or any
convection ahead of the cold front, then becoming VFR overnight.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
This early morning into today generally expecting fog and a few
showers to reduce vsby. There will be a period today of good
vsby on the waters. Fog will return tonight over the waters
reducing vsby at times less than 1nm. NE winds today generally
less than 10kt across all waters. Seas 1-2ft on the coastal
waters out to 25nm with seas 2-4ft on the waters 25-60nm today.
Winds shift W-NW tonight, but less than 10kt on all waters, then
shift SW tomorrow with gusts up to 15kt possible. Seas tomorrow
morning may reach 3-5ft on the coastal waters out to 25nm and
4-5ft on the 25-60nm waters. Seas gradually subside through the
afternoon hours to less than 4ft.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters from Wednesday night
through Saturday should allow for winds of 10kt or less and seas
of 4 ft or less across the waters out to 60nm.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/JS
AVIATION...PM/JS