527
FXUS61 KCAR 251254
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
854 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today. High pressure builds in
through Saturday, and then moves offshore through Monday. A
cold front begins to slowly cross the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
854AM Update: Radar scans show some heavier rain showers moving
across the north, but moving at a good speed to be out of the
north in the afternoon. The forecast looks very good for this
update.

Previous Discussion...
Today, low pressure system with associated trough swing through
the Northeast, with a cold front slowly moving southeast through
Maine. Rain begins in the northwest, moving southeast along the
frontal boundary. Early morning environment has some
instability, so northern Maine could hear some rumbles of
thunder, but not looking at a very favorable severe environment
for the north. Severe potential increases early afternoon into
evening time, specifically in central and Downeast Maine. Plenty
of moist air moves into the area, with PWATs totaling around 2
inches in the north, and later in the afternoon, Downeast could
see PWATs up to 2.5 inches, which is well above the 90th
percentile for the day. Generally around 500 J/kg of CAPE ahead
of the front during the morning, ramping up to around 500-1,500
J/kg Downeast. There is some favorable shear, helicity and lapse
rates. DCAPE ahead of the front is also looking good for
tomorrow, with some locations reaching up around 1,000 J/kg.
Main threats associated with this system will be heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and a potential for some small hail. Given the
high PWATS, urban areas/locations with poor drainage may see
some localized flooding today. Remember to never drive through
flooded roads, and make sure to have multiple ways to get
weather related updates. High temperatures in the upper-70s in
the north, and mid-80s in central and Downeast Maine. Skies stay
mostly cloudy. Winds could be breezy during the day into
evening.

Front crosses into the Atlantic tonight, as high pressure from
the west builds in. Skies clear out, which based on cooling
850mb temps, could lead to some radiational cooling. Winds stay
from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-50s in the
northwest, and upper-50s in central and southern Maine. On
Saturday, clear skies and northwesterly flow. Highs in the 70s
in the north, and upper-70s to low-80s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure begins to exit southeast of the region Saturday
night, with mostly clear skies across the forecast area. A
weakening convective complex will approach from the west Sunday.
At the same time, a pre-frontal trof will begin to approach
northern Maine though how rapidly this occurs is still
uncertain. Generally expect a mostly sunny morning then a
partly sunny afternoon Sunday. However, the approaching
pre-frontal trof could also help support the slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm late across northwest areas. Any
showers/thunderstorms should dissipate early Sunday night
leaving partly cloudy/mostly clear skies north, mostly clear
Downeast. The primary cold front will begin to approach northern
areas later Monday. Expect partly sunny skies along with a
chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, across
northern and central portions of the forecast area Monday.
Expect mostly sunny skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at
above normal levels Sunday/Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front begins to cross the region Monday night. Will
have a chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm
north. Across Downeast areas expect a slight chance of showers.
The cold front will slowly cross the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain.
Due to the uncertainty, have kept a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
A more rapid frontal progression could allow for decreasing
shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday. A slower progression
would keep a chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday. A
disturbance crossing the region Thursday will keep a chance of
showers across northern areas, with a slight chance Downeast.
Could also have the slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm
across the region. Expect slightly above normal level
temperatures Tuesday, near normal level temperatures Wednesday
then slightly below normal level temperatures Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR quickly drops to MVFR/IFR this morning
as rain showers move into northern Maine along a frontal
boundary. Ceilings gradually drop throughout the day. There is a
slight chance for some thunder rumbles this morning, but best
chance for thunder is early this afternoon. These afternoon
thunderstorms could result in heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts, and become NW by this afternoon.
Gusts up to 15 kt possible this afternoon.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR drops to MVFR/IFR this morning into afternoon, as
rain showers move into Maine along a frontal boundary. Chance
for some fog at KBHB this morning. Ceilings gradually drop
throughout the day. There is a slight chance for some thunder
rumbles late this morning, but best chance for thunder is this
afternoon into evening. These thunderstorms could result in
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Winds from the S at 5-10 kts,
and become NW by this evening. Gusts up to 20 kt possible this
afternoon. Chance for some fog at KBHB this morning.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south.

Sunday...VFR. A slight chance of an afternoon
shower/thunderstorm across northern areas. South/southwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Sunday night...Generally VFR. However, local MVFR possible early
across northwest areas with any showers/thunderstorms. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Monday...Occasional MVFR possible with the slight chance/chance
of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly north.
Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of showers.
Slight chance of a thunderstorm early. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots

Tuesday...Variable conditions with showers and thunderstorms.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions early this morning,
which subside as gusts and wave heights decrease below Small
Craft criteria. Southwesterly winds today, before shifting
northerly tonight. Winds shift to the SW by Saturday evening.
Chance for rain and thunderstorms this evening into tonight.
Chance for some fog to develop this morning over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/LaFlash
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/LaFlash/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/LaFlash/Norcross