735
FXUS61 KCAR 041133
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
733 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide east of the area today. An occluded front
will approach tonight and cross the region Friday morning. A cold
front will push into the area Saturday and stall as a wave of low
pressure tracks along the front. The cold front will continue east
of the region Sunday into Monday as an upper trough moves
across.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7:40AM Update... Updated sky and temperatures to match current
observations. Please see updated Aviation section below.

Previous Discussion...
Large scale upper level trough axis will remain to our west
today. Meanwhile, mid to upper ridge axis will crest across the
region into this afternoon. This will result in a dry weather
pattern across the region today. Expect mainly sunny skies after
any early morning patchy fog or stratus burns off shortly after
sunrise. Afternoon highs today will range from the mid to upper
70s across central and northern areas. It will be cooler across
coastal areas with an onshore flow keeping afternoon highs only
in the upper 60 to lower 70s.

Upper level low meanders across central Canada to the north of the
Great lakes region tonight. Increasingly moist south to southeast
flow in the lower levels will likley result in stratus and patchy
fog developing along the coast and eventually pushing inland toward
the upper Penobscot Valley overnight. A weakening band of showers
associated with an approaching cold/occluded front will begin
to progress east into the North Maine Woods after midnight
tonight and and across far northern areas toward daybreak. Lows
tonight will range from the low to mid 50s across much of the
region.

The upper level low remains across central Canada to the north of
the Great Lakes region during Friday. South to southwest flow aloft
will remain across the region during Friday. Expect scattered
showers mainly across northern and central areas. Afternoon highs on
Friday will be a bit cooler with southerly flow and more in the way
of cloud cover expected. Afternoon highs will range from the low to
mid 70s across much of the region although it will be a bit cooler
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level low pressure system and surface low will be
located over James Bay Friday night as a cold front slowly
begins to push into our area. Some showers may begin to push
into northwestern parts of the region along the front late
Friday night.

The cold front will stall across the area Saturday morning as a
shallow but vigorous shortwave rounding the bottom of the upper
trough quickly slides in from the Midwest. Dynamic lift from the
approaching shortwave will work with frontal convergence and
moisture advecting north from the western edge of subtropical high
pressure to bring a band of potentially soaking rain from southwest
to northeast across the region. Some embedded thunderstorms will be
possible in the warmer air across the southern half of our area.

The fast moving upper wave will continue northeast into the
Maritimes Saturday night. This will allow the band of rain to taper
off to showers and slide to the southeast overnight. However,
some rain may linger Downeast for a while as a potentially
secondary weak wave of low pressure swings northeast from the
base of the upper trough. Following this secondary wave, the
front will accelerate offshore and high pressure building in
from the Midwest will usher in cooler air from within the upper
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing a mostly
sunny sky Downeast and sunshine mixed with cumulus clouds central
and north.

High pressure will settle over the area Monday night bringing a
mostly clear, moonlit and cold night with lows dropping into the 30s
in some of the colder northwestern valleys. Some patches of frost
may be possible in far northwestern areas with the surface high
nearby.

High pressure will remain across the area early Tuesday then slide
east of the region during the afternoon. This will bring a mostly
sunny and cool day with highs primarily in the 60s to low 70s.

High pressure will continue away to the east Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Another cold front may push down from central Canada late
Wednesday possibly bringing showers into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...Locally LIFR in patchy fog this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected today. VFR much of tonight
but MVFR/IFR cigs are possible toward daybreak Friday morning.
MVFR conditions Friday as rain begins to move in ahead of a
front early Friday morning, lasting through the day. Winds light
and variable this morning, before becoming S at 5-10kts today
into tomorrow.

KBGR/KBHB...LIFR conditions expected at times through about 13Z
in fog and low cigs. Conditions will then improve to VFR today
into this evening. Conditions will then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR
tonight in low cigs and fog again. IFR conditions Friday
morning will give way to MVFR by afternoon with approaching rain.
SE to S wind at 5-15 kt today through Friday. Potential for some
gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...VFR to MVFR, South wind. Chance for some SW wind
shear.

Saturday...MVFR dropping to IFR in low clouds and rain. South wind.

Saturday night...IFR across the south. IFR improving to MVFR over
the north. S wind shifting to W then NW.

Sunday...IFR to MVFR south. MVFR to VFR north. Light N wind.

Sunday night...MVFR becoming VFR south. VFR north. W wind.

Monday...VFR. Gusty W wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Friday.
Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog this
morning and once again tonight and Friday morning.

SHORT TERM:
Winds should remain below SCA into early next week. Seas may
build up to 5 ft Friday night through Saturday night in response
to an offshore southerly fetch. Seas will drop down to 3 ft
late in the weekend into early next week. Rain may limit
visibilies over the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/TWD
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Brennan/TWD/Bloomer
Marine...Brennan/TWD/Bloomer