471
FXUS61 KCAR 112353
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
653 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast of the region this afternoon. A
series of upper level disturbances will cross the region
Wednesday into Saturday. Low pressure will approach the region
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
650 pm update...
Scattered snow showers occurring acrs the area this evening
with best coverage over southwestern Maine associated with best
synoptic forcing. As sfc trof moves through this evening expect
coverage to increase over the region with minor accumulations
possible all the way down to the coast. West winds should begin
to increase and become gusty within the next 2-3 hours as H9
winds increase behind trof moving thru.

Prev discussion blo...
Today, low pressure system continues to move northeast into
Canada, while some shortwave disturbances move through northern
Maine. As a result, there is a chance for snow/rain showers
throughout the state given the additional instability and lift.
There is a chance for some rain over the waters and the Downeast
coast, given higher temperatures early this afternoon, but these
do switch over to snow as temperatures drop into the lower-30s
this evening. As trough axis swings through alter tonight, mid-level
jet roughly around 120kts at 500mb moves to the east of our
CWA, placing us in the left-exit region. Elevated winds
throughout the evening into night, primarily Downeast where
mixing could bring down some 30-35mph gusts. Skies overcast
throughout the state.

Tonight, trough axis swings through Maine, as surface ridge
builds in from the west, pushing aforementioned snow showers to
the east before they taper off tomorrow morning. Winds expected
to increase throughout the night. Heaviest snowfall expected in
the North Woods region and mountainous regions, around one to
two inches. Snowfall half an inch to an inch inland, and up to
a tenth of an inch possible along the immediate coast. Cannot
rule out the possibility for some heavier snow showers with some
upper-level support and a little bit of moisture advection, but
confidence is low given the last of diurnal heating during the
day and minimal surface lifting to get things moving.
Temperatures decrease into the 20s Tuesday night, with partially
cloudy skies. Did include a chance for some thunder over the
waters, given favorable surface/elevated CAPE, along with
mid-level shear. Impressive cold pool aloft along this upper-
level trough moves over the region as well, which further could
help drive some storm development.

Tomorrow, surface ridging over the region, with winds relaxing
as pressure gradient between departing low and high pressure
starts to ease. There is a shortwave that moves along the coast
later in the afternoon into Wednesday night, which could
provide enough instability and moisture for some showers over
the waters. Highs in the upper-30s in the north, and low-to-mid
40s Downeast. Partially cloudy.

Tomorrow night, shortwave low slides along the coastline, with
continued rain showers over the waters and the coast. Could be
periods of a rain snow mix further inland Washington and Hancock
counties. As low moves east, chance for some snow showers to
move through northern Maine increase as well. Overnight lows in
the mid-to-upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low closes across the Maritimes Thursday/Thursday night,
maintaining troffing across the forecast area with difficult to time
disturbances moving through the trof. Expect mostly cloudy skies
along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas
Thursday, with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance
of rain showers Downeast. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
snow showers will occur across northern areas Thursday night, with
partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain/snow
showers Downeast. The closed upper low remains across the Maritimes
Friday through Friday night maintaining troffing across the forecast
area with disturbances still moving through the trof. Expect mostly
cloudy skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across
northern areas Friday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies along
with a slight chance of rain showers Downeast Friday. Will have
mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers
across northern areas Friday night, with generally partly cloudy
skies Downeast. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The Maritimes system begins to slowly drift east Saturday, though
how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. High pressure
should then begin to build toward the region later Saturday.
Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy
Downeast, Saturday. However, if the upper trof is slow to exit
could also still have a slight chance of rain/snow showers
across the north and mountains. High pressure could briefly
cross the region early Sunday. Uncertainty then increases later
Sunday into Monday regarding the upper pattern and subsequent
impacts on a possible surface low. An approaching upper low
should support an intensifying surface low moving from the Gulf
of Maine toward Nova Scotia later Sunday through Sunday night,
with the supporting upper low also starting to cross the region
Sunday night. Precipitation chances should begin to increase
across mostly central and Downeast portions of the forecast area
Sunday afternoon. Based on critical thicknesses, precipitation
would likely begin in the form of snow across central areas.
Across Downeast areas, precipitation at the onset could be in
the form of either snow or a snow/rain mix. Precipitation should
then expand across the remainder of the forecast area Sunday
night. Precipitation should be in the form of snow across much
of the forecast area Sunday night. However, a rain/snow mix
could persist Downeast early Sunday night particularly along
the coast. Colder air being drawn around the intensifying
system should then allow for a transition to snow Downeast. The
system will exit across the Maritimes early Monday. Early snow
should taper to snow showers across northern areas, tapering to
snow/rain showers Downeast. Accumulating snow is likely across
the entire forecast area with this system, though amounts are
still uncertain. The system should lift toward Labrador Tuesday
while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Expect
mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow/rain
showers across northern areas Tuesday, with partly sunny skies
Downeast. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures
Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FVE will see MVFR cigs thru around 20z Wednesday
with light -shsn expected until 07z tonight. CAR and PQI to see
MVFR tonight before gradually improving to MVFR in the morning.
HUL will see low VFR and light snow showers tonight with
improvement to VFR by 07z.

Downeast terminals will vary between VFR and MVFR tonight before
improving to VFR around 04z tonight.

All terminals to see west winds increase and become gusty
within the next 2-3 hours. Winds decrease late Wednesday
afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a chance of rain/snow showers early. North/northwest
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday.,..VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north.
VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers. Northwest winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of rain/snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around
20 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers
north. VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR. Increasing snow
chances north, with increasing snow/rain chances Downeast.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning in effect until tonight, as seas stay
around 6-8 ft over the inter-coastals, and 8-10 ft over the
outer-waters. Rain showers, that could transition to snow
showers late tonight through tomorrow morning, with a potential
for a few isolated thunderstorms. Winds currently from the SW,
shifting to the W by tomorrow morning. Winds then shift to the
N late Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels
Thursday into Thursday night. Small craft advisory conditions
possible Friday into Friday night. A chance of rain showers
Thursday into Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB/21
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/21/CN
Marine...ASB/21/CN