Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
132 FXUS61 KCAR 171727 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 127 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Increase wind gust for Friday due to increasing confidence. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain likely tonight, mainly Downeast. Little to no drought improvement anticipated. 2) Gusty winds from the northwest during the day Friday could lead to isolated power outages. 3) Another chance for rain showers this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds from the northwest during the day Friday could lead to isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak low pressure system will track across New England and into the region tonight and Friday. A warm front will move into the region first, stretching rain across the Central Highlands before the surface low moves into the Gulf of Maine. The majority of the rainfall will be across Downeast, mainly concentrated in the coastal areas. There is still some uncertainty in just how far north the steadier rain makes it, but we do have pretty high confidence that the highest rain totals will be from Bangor south. Totals could reach around a half inch, with the best chance of this occurring being right on the coast. Cannot rule out localized amounts around an inch. This is a quick-hitting system, with the steady rain ending by about sunrise Friday. The far north could have a few showers Friday morning/midday as the cooler air moves in as well, but totals from this will generally be less than a tenth of an inch, if any. Overall, little if any improvement in the drought conditions expected with this system. KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty winds from the northwest during the day Friday could lead to isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Cooler air moving in, with a strong pressure gradient, will lead to gusty winds over land during the day Friday. Anticipating max gusts 30-40 mph, with about an equal threat areawide. This will be strong enough to lead to isolated power outages. The primary threat is during the day Friday from mid-morning to sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3...Another chance for rain showers this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A weak low pressure system sliding eastward across Southern New England this weekend will bring our next chance for rain showers. Timing and track of the system remains uncertain at this time with some guidance delaying the onset of rain until well into Sunday or takes the system Eastward into the Gulf of Maine. Regardless, minimal drought relief is expected with expected rainfall totals below 0.2 inches across the region with highest totals Downeast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight...VFR for FVE/CAR/PQI. IFR/LIFR for HUL/BGR/BHB in lowering ceiling and vsby in patchy fog and rain. The fog will begin early tonight in BHB, then gradually move north. Light and variable winds. Friday...Conditions will improve to VFR after sunrise and remain for the rest of the day. NW winds increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. LLWS in the evening. Friday night...VFR. NW winds decreasing to 5-10 kts. Saturday...VFR. NW winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Saturday Night... VFR. Winds calm and variable. Sunday...VFR/MVFR at Downeast terminals. S winds between 5 to 10kts, gusting to near 20kts Downeast. Uncertainty about exact location and timing of rain event. Sunday Night...VFR. S winds turning NW around 8 to 13 kts. Patchy fog possible at all terminals. Monday-Tuesday...VFR. N/NW winds 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kts. && .MARINE... Areas of fog over the waters today and tonight. Seas will remain below 5ft across all waters. NW winds between 10 and 15kts with gusts up to 20kt, reaching 25kts in outer waters, are expected in coastal waters Friday night. NW winds will turn SSW on Saturday while diminishing. Winds and gusts will remain below 20kts in all waters through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/JMM AVIATION...ARL/JMM