581
FXUS61 KCAR 060351
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1051 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area tonight and move east of the
region on Saturday. A cold front will approach Saturday night and
cross the area early Sunday morning. Low pressure will approach
Sunday afternoon and track through the Gulf of Maine Sunday night.
High pressure will approach on Monday and slide south of the area
Tuesday. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure exits southeast of Nova Scotia overnight, while
a trof develops across the northern Gulf of Maine. Expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies across much of the forecast area
overnight, with mostly cloudy skies along the Downeast coast.
Low temperatures across northern/central portions of the
forecast area will generally range through the single digits
above and below zero dependent on cloud cover. Low temperatures
across interior Downeast areas will generally range from zero to
5 above, with around 10 to 15 along the Downeast coast. Have
updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected
overnight temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Key Messages:
>Cloudy and Cold Tonight, Light Winds
>Light Rain/Snow Possible Downeast Saturday PM/Eve

Discussion...

Tomorrow weak southerly return flow develops around the high
turns winds southerly across the area. Highs will climb into the
low to mid 20s north, mid to upper 20s Central Highlands, around
30F for Bangor and upper 30s Downeast. Cannot rule out some
isolated snow showers with the slight increase of boundary layer
moisture and mainly cloudy skies. A weak surface trof will
develop along the Downeast coast and be the focus for some light
precipitation of either rain or snow till sunset and turn
mainly to snow. Not expecting much precipitation but as the sun
sets and temperatures cool expecting potential for slick travel
along the Route 1 corridor east of Machias to Eastport region.
Up to 1 inch of snow is possible.

Saturday night a very weak wave, barely a cold front will cross
the state. Skies will break up to partly cloudy skies with
temperatures falling back into the teens for most locations.
Exception of single digits in the North Woods and St. John
Valley and 20s along the Downeast coast. Light SW winds will
shift back W as a weak surface wave pushes through the area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An Arctic front will push across the north during the predawn hours
Sunday, possibly with some isolated snow showers. The front will
reach the coast around late morning. Arctic air will follow with
clearing by midday Sunday followed by some increasing high clouds
from the south late Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave.

A weak weather system rounding the bottom of a trough centered over
the Eastern Great Lakes will approach Sunday night bringing
increasing clouds. A small low will track into the Gulf of Maine
late Sunday night spreading light snow across the area, mainly
Downeast, where 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall by early Monday
morning. A bit of light snow will likely reach northern areas early
to mid morning Monday, mainly as a function of lift out ahead of the
shortwave trough crossing the area. The upper trough and surface low
will quickly continue to the east Monday afternoon followed by
clearing Downeast and partial clearing over the north. Gusty winds
will likely result in patchy blowing snow Monday afternoon as Arctic
air surges in.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night will be clear to partly cloudy and very cold with lows
by Tuesday morning dipping just below zero over the north and into
the single digits Downeast. High clouds may begin to increase over
the north ahead of a weather disturbance tracking from Ontario
into Quebec.

Clouds will increase Tuesday and a bit of light snow is
possible Tuesday night as the weather disturbance moves across.

Our focus on Wednesday will be on a new low approaching from the
west. Current forecast models disagree on the track of this system
with the GFS carrying the low to our northwest which would bring
snow or mix changing over to rain and a south wind. The ECMWF,
however, tracks the low into the Gulf of Maine late Wednesday into
Wednesday night favoring snow across the region.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, VFR overnight through early
Saturday. VFR/MVFR later Saturday into Saturday night. Across
Downeast areas, generally VFR overnight though MVFR ceilings are
possible late. VFR/MVFR early Saturday then MVFR, occasional
IFR, later Saturday into Saturday night with a chance of snow
and rain. Light and variable winds tonight. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots Saturday. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
west/northwest 10 to 15 knots Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt gusting to 15 kt.

Sunday night...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR south. VFR dropping to
MVFR north. N wind around 5 kt.

Monday...MVFR becoming VFR. NW wind 10 kt gusting to 20 kt.

Monday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday...VFR. W wind becoming SW 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday night...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR S wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR. SE wind around 5 to 10 kt.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory
levels through early morning. Otherwise, winds/seas below small
craft advisory levels overnight into Saturday night. NW wind
gusts may approach 25kt across the outer most coastal waters Sat
night. Isolated snow showers overnight. Light rain or snow may
reduce vsby at times Saturday into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed early Sunday for winds gusting
up to 25 kt over the offshore waters. A gale may be needed
Monday into Monday night for NW winds gusting up to 35 kt. Some
light freezing spray will be possible in the gale.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/JS
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...CN/MB
Marine...CN/JS/MB