638
FXUS61 KCAR 051728
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1228 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region today. A warm front passes
Saturday, followed by a cold front crossing the region Saturday
night. High pressure then builds toward the region through Monday
night and crosses the region Tuesday. Low pressure approaches on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Point:
* Cold lasts through tonight; more mild weather on Saturday

12:28PM Update...Adjusted for current observations. 18z TAF
UPDATE below.

8:06AM Update...Cold Weather Advisory has been allowed to
expire. Air temperatures slowly rising and winds are relaxing
across the area. No other updates.

Discussion:
High pressure will continue to build into the area through the
day today. As the high pressure builds in, winds will continue
to decrease, becoming light and variable by tonight. Cold
temperatures will continue as continental polar airmass remains
established over the forecast area, and highs may only lift into
the low to mid teens through most of the CWA. Though winds will
be decreasing, winds that remain through the day could keep
wind chills in the single digits through the afternoon.

Lows tonight will fall to around zero across the north, and the
single digits above zero Downeast as cold air remains in the
area. More mild conditions will return to the forecast area on
Saturday as return flow on the backside of the ridge of high
pressure brings warmer air into the region. Highs on Saturday
may lift into the 20s across the north and lower 30s Downeast. A
weak shortwave may spin up over the Gulf of Maine late in the
day on Saturday, and this could bring some showers along the
Coastal Downeast region and then up through Washington County
late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
-Another blast of cold arctic air arrives Sunday behind a cold
 front
-Weak coastal low may produce some light snow in southern areas
 Sunday night

On Saturday night, some rain showers along the immediate coast
and snow showers over the interior Downeast will slowly move out
of the area by morning. Meanwhile, an arctic cold front will
approach NW Maine and pass through the state overnight through
early Sunday morning. Not currently expecting much, if any,
precipitation associated with the front as it will be weakening
and have very little moisture associated with it. N/NW flow
behind the front will bring in arctic air resulting in
temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below normal through Sunday
night.

Also on Sunday night a shortwave trough approaching from the
west should result in a weak low pressure system passing just
to our south out over the waters. Ensemble solutions are
expressing considerable uncertainty in terms of the strength and
timing of the system. Some members show a moderate intensity
coastal low while others show a very weak system or hardly
anything at all. Where there is confidence at this time is in
saying that this should be an all snow event and it will likely
not be a highly impactful system. A few inches of snow in the
Bangor and Downeast regions appear to be the most likely
solution at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
-Well below normal temperatures expected early next week with
 the coldest temperatures Monday/Monday night

On Monday, the weak coastal system clears out of the area with
blustery NW flow developing in its wake that will bring in more
arctic air. Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday
and Monday night with guidance continuing to suggest near or
subzero overnight lows. Temperatures remain below normal on
Tuesday but begin a warming trend that will last through mid
week.

High pressure builds in through Monday night and becomes
centered over the area Tuesday morning. The next system is
possible Wednesday night into Thursday but there is a lot of
uncertainty regarding its strength, track, and intensity,

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 18z TAF UPDATE...VFR cigs across the north. VFR high
cigs south. Cannot rule out VCSH for next few hours at FVE.
Winds mainly becoming light and variable at all terms. Tonight,
VFR cigs at all terms. BKN030 at FVE may brief dip to MVFR cigs
at times tonight. Winds light and variable all terms. Tomorrow
VFR cigs all sites except BHB. BHB becoming MVFR with -SN by
early afternoon. Light S-SE winds all terms.

Previous Discussion...
VFR conditions continue across all terminals today
through tonight and into the day on Saturday. Gusty W winds
will continue to decrease through the day. Winds become light
and variable overnight tonight, and S around 5 kts on Saturday.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered snow showers,
especially southern terminals. Light S/SW winds become W/NW late
at 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR north, MVFR/IFR south. Light snow
southern terminals with snow showers northern terminals. N winds
around 5 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR early at southern terminals.
A chance of snow early. N/NW winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday night...VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. W/SW winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming south.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. S/SW
winds around 5 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts 25 to 30 kts continuing across the coastal
waters through around 12z before diminishing below SCA levels
through the rest of the day. Seas will also continue to
decrease, falling below 5 ft shortly after winds decrease.
Conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria then
through Saturday. Brief freezing spray possible early this
morning but will quickly diminish as winds decrease.

SHORT TERM: Winds near SCA criteria on the outer waters Saturday
night, decreasing below criteria Sunday morning. Winds increase
to SCA criteria Sunday night and to possible gales Monday.
Winds may subside to below SCA criteria briefly early Tuesday
before winds/seas increase to above criteria again late
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...JS
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...JS/MB
Marine...JS/MB