Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
064 FXUS61 KCAR 041351 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 951 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain south of the region through Monday. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 945am Update... Delayed the onset of the isolated showers in far Northern Maine a couple hours based on lack of anything on the radar and adjusted sky cover a bit based on current trends. Very weak cold front is presently somewhere around Caribou, but really hard to pick out. Previous Discussion... A cold front will move south across the region today, stall tonight, then return north Sunday in the form of a warm front. Aloft, a disturbance crosses northern areas early today before exiting across the Maritimes this afternoon. Another upper level disturbance clips northern areas later tonight through early Sunday in advance of a building upper ridge. The upper ridge then builds across the region Sunday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas today through Sunday. However, isolated showers are also possible today then again later tonight into early Sunday. Generally expect mostly clear skies Downeast today through Sunday. High temperatures today will range from the mid 60s to around 70 north, to the lower to mid 70s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 to the mid 40s north, to the mid to upper 40s Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid to upper 70s across much of the forecast area, with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be to our south Sunday night as strong upper level ridging remains over the area. The return flow behind high pressure to our south will continue pushing warm and humid air across the region bringing a mostly clear and unseasonably warm night Sunday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. The high to our south and strong upper ridging will result in mid summer like warmth with highs topping 80 over most inland locations under a mostly sunny sky. Monday night will be another unseasonably warm night as high pressure slides further south and a cold front begins to approach from the west. A tightening gradient between the high to our south and the front nearing from the west will result in a southwesterly breeze continuing overnight likely keeping the low levels mixed. The cold front will begin to pres into the area on Tuesday. Showers ahead of the front may start to push into northwestern parts of the region during the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday. Forecast soundings across the north are showing cape up to 200 J/KG Tuesday afternoon. A sharp frontal boundary will offer surface convergence that may support convection. Will include isolated thunderstorms in the northwest Tuesday afternoon given the lapse rates and convergence. Showers should cover much of the northwestern part of the area by the end of the day Tuesday as the front pushes in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will continue to press across the area Tuesday night carrying a solid band of showers across the area. Rain amounts of around a half inch with locally higher amounts seem likely along the front and some embedded isolated convection can`t be ruled out. Some of the forecast models including the UKMET and the GFS are indicating that a shallow wave of low pressure may track along the front. This could give a band of rain across the area where over an inch may fall. Models differ considerably on the location of this band with the UKMET having it across the north, the GFS having it over central areas and the ICON carrying the band of heavy rain Downeast. The cold front will push offshore Wednesday morning. The GFS is a bit slower with the front keeping some moderate to heavy rain Downeast through the morning on Wednesday. the ECMWF is faster, and has the front along with its rain pushing well offshore by mid morning Wednesday. Gusty northwesterly winds and cooler air will begin to push into the area Wednesday afternoon behind the front with partial clearing. Wednesday night will be much colder under a moonlit sky with lows dropping below freezing across much of the north and into the 30s Downeast. The gradient east of a new area of high pressure building to our west will likely keep a northwesterly breeze overnight. This will be followed by a mostly sunny, brisk and chilly day on Thursday with highs in the 50s throughout the area. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Spotty MVFR possible across northern areas 15-18z today then again later tonight into early Sunday. Isolated showers possible across northern areas today then again later tonight into early Sunday. Variable conditions with any patchy fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR across northern areas today into Sunday. Across Downeast areas, variable conditions with any patchy fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR Downeast today through Sunday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots today. Light and variable winds tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Sunday. SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR. Light SW wind. Monday...VFR. Light SW wind. Tuesday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north late. Light SW wind. Chance of SW Wind shear over the north late. Tuesday night...IFR north, VFR dropping to IFR south. W wind becoming NW over the north and SW wind become W over the south. Chance for SW wind shear. Wednesday...IFR becoming MVFR then VFR north. IFR south, becoming MVFR late. NW wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. SHORT TERM: SW winds may approach SCA in gusts over the offshore waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. Seas may build to 5 ft Tuesday then 6 ft Tuesday night, dropping back to 5 ft on Wednesday. Humid air over the waters may cause some mist or fog to limit visibilities Sunday night through Tuesday. Rain may limit visibility late Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers possible across northern Aroostook county today then again later tonight into early Sunday. A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, when rainfall of a quarter to three quarters of an inch is likely. Could see some gusty southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for Saturday October 4th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 79/2017 66 Bangor 79/2017 76 Millinocket 79/2001 73 Houlton 78/2001 70 Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 74/1946 80 Bangor 84/1946 80 Millinocket 82/1946 82 Houlton 73/1957 81 Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 76 Bangor 84/1946 78 Millinocket 81/1946 78 Houlton 76/2016 77 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/Norcross Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer Marine...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer Fire Weather...Norcross/Bloomer Climate...Norcross/Bloomer