265
FXUS61 KCAR 220211
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just south of Long Island moves northwest and into
the Hudson Valley of New York by Friday morning. The low
crosses the region Saturday, then moves east of the region
Sunday. High pressure builds toward the region from the west
Monday and is followed by low pressure on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:11 PM Update: Low pressure is seen on satellite pictures in
the Atlantic approaching eastern Long Island. The low is
expected to retrograde overnight and should be across the Mid
Hudson Valley of NY by Friday morning. Light rain continues to
fall across southern Maine, but it will be slow to advance north
overnight into Friday morning. Drizzle or very light rain may
develop in spots along and near the coast, but areas from around
Bangor north are expected to remain mainly dry overnight. Have
again made some tweaks to slow the advance of the rain into the
FA. Otherwise, it is another mild night by late November
standards with 9 PM temperatures in the low to mid 40s, but it
feels a bit cooler with a stiff northeast wind. Temperatures
overnight will likely only drop a few degrees from current
values.

Previous discussion:
The low pressure system progressing towards New England will
continue to progress N towards the region tonight. High res
models show moisture wrapping around the low with the vort max.
This evening and tonight will see isolated to scattered showers
across the region. The 925-850 mb temps show the warm airmass
associated with the low keeping temps in the low 40s tonight.
Downsloping from the increasing NE winds will drop some temps in
the north into the mid 30s, especially in the North Woods.
Models show pressure gradients tightening throughout the night
with the LLJ lowering through the region. Expect breezy NE winds
with gusts up to 30 mph.

By Friday, the low will retrograde into New York, rotating the
heavier rain bands into the region. Models indicate a relaxing
of the isobars, which will decrease winds throughout the day.
Upper air model sounding show little change in temps throughout
the day, though some high res models show cooling in the North
Woods. Decided to include rain/snow mix in this area for the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure
system in central Pennsylvania continues to move northeast,
tightening the pressure gradient in the region. Northeasterly
flow continues to bring moisture in from the waters. Widespread
rain showers are expected across the forecast region Friday
night. Lows will be in the mid-30s to low-40s.

Saturday, the low pressure system is going to move into the
maritime, and begin to dance around another low by Nova Scotia.
Winds will become northerly, with gusts around 20kts possible
across the region. Rain is forecast to continue throughout the
day. High temperatures will be in the 40s.

As of this update, models are disagreeing on Saturday night
precipitation. The GFS had the low pressure system bringing
down colder air to northern Maine, but less precipitation. The
European model, however, had less cold air getting brought in
with the northerly flow, and much higher precipitation rates.
Currently have most of the precipitation focused on western
North Maine, predominantly in the North Woods area, with higher
snow ratio values since temperatures dont look to get cold
enough for dry snow. Majority of the area is forecast to receive
under an inch of snow, and the eastern/southern portion of the
region would receive rain, but uncertainty in precipitation type
is still very prevalent. If the atmospheric pattern follows the
European model, cannot rule out northern Maine seeing 1-2
inches of snow. Not anticipating snow to fall in
southern/coastal counties. Continue to monitor for forecast
updates. Low temperatures are in the low-30s in the north, and
mid-30s by the coast. Elevated wind gusts around 20-25kts
possible across the entire area.

Low will move northeast out of our area Sunday afternoon. Rain
will diminish in southern counties, and linger in the north.
Wind gusts are forecast to gust up to 25kts. High temperatures
will stay in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging builds into the region Monday, but is then followed by
another low pressure system moving in from the west. Expect
mostly cloudy skies throughout the majority of the weekend and
early next week. Chances for precipitation increase as a result
on Monday night, which is currently predicted to fall as snow.
During the day, precipitation may fall as rain, and become snow
again overnight as temperatures fluctuate. High temperatures
should stay in the low-40s, with low temperatures gradually
decreasing later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR conditions for all terminals tonight and
Friday. LLWS is marginal and have included for areas from KHUL
south, but with the surface wind also increasing conditions are
marginal. For tonight NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30
kts. For Friday, ENE winds decreasing to 5-15 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR due to low ceilings.
NE winds gusting around 15kts. LLWS possible.

Saturday night...IFR possible due to snow/rain reducing
visibility. KBGR/KBHB MVFR possible. Winds NW, gusting between
20-25kts possible.

Sunday...MVFR possible, due to snow/rain, gradually getting
better throughout the day. Winds NW gusting around 20-25kts
possible.

Sunday night into Monday night...Chance for MVFR late Sunday
night at northern terminals. Precipitation is expected to clear
out Sunday night, bringing visibilities. Winds out of the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds are expected to reach gale force later
tonight. Thus a Gale Warning has been issued for the outer
waters until Friday morning. A Small Craft Advisory continues
for inner waters from tonight through Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts and seas begin to increase Saturday, with
Gale force conditions forecast Saturday night into Monday. Seas
currently range at or below 8-10ft during this period in outer
waters, and at or below 5ft in inner waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/LaFlash
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...CB/LaFlash/Brennan
Marine...CB/LaFlash/Brennan