984
FXUS61 KCAR 300416
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1116 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region overnight, then exits to the
east on Sunday, as low pressure approaches from the west. A
warm front crosses Sunday evening, followed by a cold front
crossing Maine late Sunday night. A secondary cold front crosses
the area on Monday, followed by high pressure building in
through Monday night. A coastal low approaches from the south on
Tuesday, passes offshore Tuesday night, then exits into the
southern Maritimes on Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will cross the region overnight, while low
pressure crosses the Great Lakes. Expect mostly clear/partly
cloudy skies through early morning, with clouds then
increasing. Moisture from the Saint Lawrence River is helping
support an area of clouds which has reached the Saint John
Valley. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to
upper teens north, to around 20 to the mid 20s Downeast. Have
updated to adjust for current conditions along with overnight
temperatures and clouds. With diminishing winds, have also
cancelled the Small Craft Advisory with this update.

Previous Discussion...
Key Message:

-Light snow develops across the north Sunday afternoon with
 snow changing to rain for the Bangor region and Downeast.

-Period of gusty winds Downeast coast Sunday evening into Sunday
 night with gusts up to 45 mph possible

Clouds increase quickly Sunday morning as low pressure tracks
northeast through the Great Lakes region. Warm advection in the
low to mid levels results in precipitation developing across
the region by afternoon. Along the coast, expect mainly rain
through Sunday night, although a brief snow/rain mix is expected
at the onset. For the Bangor region and Downeast, precipitation
starts as snow then quickly transitions to rain in the
afternoon. Little if any snow accumulation is expected in the
Bangor region before the changeover. Across the far north,
generally expecting 1 to 3 inches along the Route 1 corridor
from the Houlton area north toward the Caribou/Presque Isle
region. For the St John Valley through the North Maine Woods
generally expecting 2 to 4 inches Sunday afternoon through the
evening Sunday. Precipitation winds down pretty quickly from
west to east Sunday evening as low pressure tracks to the
northeast of the region. Most areas should be precipitation
free after midnight.

One potential concern across Downeast areas, especially the
coast, Sunday evening into Sunday night is gusty south winds. A
925 Mb jet of 45 to 55 kt is expected to translate eastward
during that period. Not quite confident enough that we will see
full mixing of these winds to the surface but think brief gusts
to 45 mph will be possible along the Downeast coast and higher
terrain. Cant totally rule out needing a wind advisory for
Sunday evening into Sunday night for portions of Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message:
1) High uncertainty remains with the storm on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain cold.

Key message 1...
High variability in the solutions for the storm on Tuesday
remains. GFS continues a further south trend for the track,
aligning more with the EC, while the Canadian continues to show
a snowier solution with the storm tracking closer to the coast.
CAMs are just beginning to show this storm, so their influence
is not really helpful just yet to discern the details. Ensembles
also continue to show a further south trend with the low
center, which would limit the amount of snowfall expected. The
heaviest band still looks like it will be in Downeast, but there
continues to be a not-insignificant possibility that this storm
will be far enough offshore that we will see less than 4 inches
over the mainland. Right now, ensembles indicate a 20 to 30%
chance of Downeast receiving more than 6 inches of snow, with a
greater than 30% chance of more than 3 inches over a broader
area, from the Central Highlands through Southern Aroostook. The
trend seems to be the thing to watch at the moment to determine
whether this precip band will end up closer to the coast or
not.

More certain during this time period are northerly winds
increasing during the day on Tuesday, accompanied by cold
temperatures.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key messages:

2) Impacts from the storm on Tuesday will continue into Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with moderate to high confidence on winds
and low confidence on snow totals.

3) A possibility of snow squalls on Thursday, impacting daytime
travel in the north with low visibility and gusty winds.

Key message 2...The storm will continue moving northward
Tuesday night into Wednesday, so whatever precip ends up falling
will continue through the overnight hours. There is higher
confidence that northerly winds will continue to increase, with
the potential for gale warnings over the waters. Another trend
in the models is that the speed of this system seems to be
increasing, which would limit the length of time precip falls
over northern Maine, therefore also reducing the amount. Most
precip will end Wednesday morning, but strong northerly winds
will continue with cold air behind the front. This will keep
highs on Wednesday and Thursday mainly below freezing, with lows
in the teens over night.

Key message 3...On Thursday, an Arctic front will cross the
region during the day, bringing a band of snowfall and much
colder air. This pattern looks fairly convective in the cool air
mass ahead of the stronger cold front, so some periods of
intense snow showers are possible. Winds aloft will also
strengthen as the cold front moves through, bringing a LLJ of 30
to 40 knots with front passage. With the convective activity,
the possibility of gusty winds mixing down to the surface is
higher, so the factors are coming together for snow squalls. It
is still too far out to evaluate this situation with the CAMs,
so we will need to keep watch as we get closer in time to see
whether these factors continue to line up.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR ceilings possible across northern
Aroostook county overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the
region overnight. VFR early Sunday, then lowering to MVFR/IFR
Sunday afternoon with snow north and snow/rain Downeast.
MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early Sunday night then VFR/MVFR
late. Snow tapering to snow showers north, rain/snow tapering to
snow showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots overnight.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots except up to around 35 knots
along the Downeast coast Sunday. South/southeast winds 10 to 20
knots with gust 25 to 35 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15
knots Sunday night. Southerly low level wind shear Sunday
afternoon into early Sunday night.

SHORT TERM:

Monday...VFR, except possible MVFR north. NW wind
gusting 20-30 kts.

Monday Night...VFR with light wind.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in snow,
especially south. Confidence is still low in this event. N/NE
wind 10-15 kts.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Probably VFR. NW winds 10-20
kts becoming SW 10 kts.

Thursday...MVFR tempo IFR/LIFR in snow showers. Winds SW 10 kts
becoming W 10 to 20 kts. Possible gusts 25 to 30 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: With diminishing winds, have cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory with this update. A Gale Warning remains in
effect for all the waters from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night. Rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: Gales expected to continue through Monday morning,
from the west becoming northwest. Seas to around 10 ft. Much
improved winds/seas Monday night/early Tuesday. Moderate
likelihood of gales late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Seas
could also build back up to around 10 ft, but most likely 8
feet, with the highest seas further offshore.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/TWD
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CN/LF
Marine...CN/LF