669
FXUS61 KCAR 031125
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
725 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift toward the Downeast region Thursday. An
occluded front crosses the region Thursday night into Friday.
Low pressure will approach Saturday, then cross the region
Sunday. Another low will approach Monday and cross the area
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7:20AM Update... Precipitation has begun to fall! Very mixed
precipitation types, with Downeast seeing some snow/freezing
rain, and areas in the north seeing graupel/snow. Still looking
at the early morning having mixed precip throughout the region,
until early this afternoon as temperatures rise, causing a
transition to rain. Also monitoring some lightning along the
line going through southern Maine this morning. Good isentropic
lift and instability aloft has been producing some lightning
this morning to our west, so can`t rule out a rumble of thunder
in our southern/western counties. Otherwise, forecast on track.

.Previous Discussion...High pressure pushes out into the
Atlantic to our east, while a low pressure system moves into the
Quebec region, bringing a warm front into New England. Still
forecasting wintery mix throughout the morning, but dry air has
been stubborn throughout the region causing precipitation
struggle to hit the ground. Moisture slowly moves into the
region from our southwest. Thermal profiles show good warm layer
aloft to support winter mix throughout the region, but most
models are hinting at good cold layer below this warm layer,
which favors sleet. Freezing rain is still forecast, so plan on
some ice accumulation. Precipitation will change over to rain by
the afternoon hours. Since dry conditions have cut
precipitation onset over night, storm start times have been
moved back to this morning. Looking at snow totals around an
inch, sleet around 0.5 inch, and light ice accumulations
Downeast. The north could see 2-3 inches of snow, up to 0.5
inches of sleet, and light ice accumulations. Travel will be
impacted during the morning, so please plan ahead. Potential for
some patchy fog this morning as well, specifically along the
coast.

Moving in low pressure system alongside the high pressure in the
Atlantic bring tightening pressure gradient, bringing some gusty
winds around 25-35 mph throughout the area. Southerly flow will
help temperatures rise, with highs in the 40s Downeast and
mid-30s in the north. Skies stay overcast all day. Rain showers
begin to move out of the area by this evening into tonight, as
low pressure moves out to Labrador and high pressure over the
mid-west moves eastward. Low temperatures tonight do not drop
too much due to cloud cover, so expect temperatures in the 30s
and low 40s throughout the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, expect cold air advection in a northwesterly flow.
Upper troughing and low level instability may yield isolated to
scattered rain and snow showers in northern zones as well as
mostly cloudy skies. Bangor and Downeast will fare better with
no PoPs and less cloud cover due to downsloping. 850mb temps
will drop sharply during the day, but a deep mixed layer and a
warm start to the day should allow highs in the mid to upper
40s.

For Friday night, high pressure at the surface and aloft will
build over the area. Cold air continues to filter into the area.
Conditions will be good for radiational cooling with light winds
and clear skies. Lows will drop into the 20s with a few teens
possible in the North Woods.

On Saturday, clouds will increase ahead of an approaching
occlusion. While most of the day may be dry, precip will arrive
quickly later in the day from west to east. Although highs in be
near 40F, evaporative cooling will quickly reduce boundary layer
temps and expect rain to mix with snow and change to snow in the
evening. CAD sets up later Saturday into Saturday night while
temps warm aloft. As a result, a warm nose will ensure precip
changes to sleet and freezing rain Saturday night. The last hold
out will be northern Aroostook County. All told, just an inch or
two is expected in the North Woods and northern Aroostook and
less elsewhere. The mixed precip will likely prompt advisories.

By later in the night, the southerly flow increases with mixed
precip changing to rain in southern portions of the forecast
area such as the Bangor area. The warmer and moister air will
likely generate fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Sunday, the warm occlusion will move through the area. While
forcing is generally weak, moisture advection is strong with
PWs increasing to over an inch for much of the area. This is the
moisture from the storms in the lower Mississippi Valley.  A
northern stream upper trough will phase with this southern
stream moisture later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most
guidance shows steadier precip during this period as a triple
point low forms along the coast on the occlusion. At a minimum,
low clouds/fog and drizzle can be expected much of the day.
Temperatures will eventually climb well into the 40s by
afternoon.

The aforementioned upper trough is expected to push the front
out of the area Sunday night with weak surface high pressure
building. Residual moisture could result in fog Sunday night,
but confidence is not sufficient to mention in forecast at this
point. The high will ensure a drier day on Monday with highs in
the low to mid 40s.

Another interesting set up develops Monday night into Tuesday as
a strong upper trough dives southeastward from the upper Great
Lakes region towards the area on Tuesday. CAD may set up Monday
night with a cold closed upper low traversing the area Tuesday.
The potential exists for a moderate snowfall, but there is still
a wide variety of solutions in the guidance with this
development. Will maintain chance PoPs for snow at this point.

There is much higher certainty in cold and blustery conditions
following the Tuesday system. Below normal temps are likely
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds could be quite gusty on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR/IFR conditions develop later this
morning with developing snow. IFR/LIFR Thursday with snow
transitioning to a wintry mix, with freezing rain and sleet
possible at all terminals. Transitions over to rain by late
afternoon. Low level wind shear at all terminals late Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning. Light SE winds at 5-10 knots,
with gusts up to 30 kts this morning in northern terminals.
South/southwest winds later today at 10-15 knots.

KBGR/KBHB: IFR/LIFR Thursday with snow transitioning to a
wintry mix, with freezing rain and sleet possible at both
terminals. Transitions over to rain by late afternoon. Low level
wind shear at all terminals late Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Light SE winds at 5-10 knots, with gusts up
to 30 kts this morning. South/southwest winds later today at
10-15 knots.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...MVFR cigs possible in the morning north of GNR and HUL;
otherwise VFR.  NW winds 10 to 15 kt.

Friday night...VFR.  Light winds.

Saturday...VFR. Chance of IFR vis late in snow and sleet. SE
winds 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night...IFR tempo LIFR in snow/sleet/freezing rain and
IFR cigs. LIFR vis in fog possible later in the night for BGR
and BHB.  South winds 10 to 15 kt.
o our east
Sunday...IFR tempo LIFR due to cigs and vis in the morning;
improving trend in the afternoon.  South winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday night...VFR most probable with a slight chance of fog.
Light winds.

Monday...VFR likely with a slight chance of AM fog.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions due to wind gusts and
seas are forecast until Thursday night / Friday morning. A few
gusts to 35 kt possible this morning. Seas steadily increase
throughout the day today with intra-coastals seeing heights up
to 7 ft and outer waters seeing heights up to 9 ft. Winter mix
this morning which changes over to rain by afternoon. Potential
for some patchy fog tonight into tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM: The SCA that runs through Thursday night may need to
be extended into Friday for seas. There may a few gusts up to 25
kt from the west Friday and Friday night. The next event occurs
Saturday night when an SCA seems probable with southeasterly
winds gusting to 30 kt. These winds will gradually decrease
Sunday morning as warm and stable air moves over the waters.
Another SCA is possible Tuesday into Wednesday with a gale
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ001-002-005-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ003-004-010-011-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Brennan/MCW
Marine...Brennan/MCW