841
FXUS61 KCAR 040214
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area tonight into
Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Thursday and cross the
area Thursday night. Weak high pressure will build over the
area Friday. Low pressure will approach on Saturday and cross
the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM Update: Smoke continues to move in from the west,
pushing through our forecast area tonight. The previous forecast
remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on
current observations and trends. Some further adjustments made
to aviation forecasts, with details in the Aviation section
below.

Previous Discussion:
Surface high pressure centered south of the region will ridge
northward across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday.
Aloft, upper level ridging persists tonight through Wednesday.
Generally expect mostly clear skies across the region tonight
through Wednesday. However, smoke and haze from Canadian
wildfires will increase across the region Wednesday. An Air
Quality Alert for ozone has been issued by the Maine DEP,
effective from 11 AM Wednesday til 11 PM Thursday for coastal
Hancock county. Low temperatures tonight will generally range
from the mid 40s to around 50 across the forecast area. High
temperatures Wednesday will generally range from the lower to
mid 80s north, to around 80 to the lower 80s interior Downeast.
Mid 60s to lower 70s will occur along the Downeast coast with
developing onshore winds. High temperatures Wednesday will be
influenced by the extent of smoke and haze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging will begin to erode on Wednesday night into Thursday as
a weakening cold front moves towards the area. The front will
remain over the Saint Lawrence valley Thursday as warm, moist
air moves in from the southwest. Dew points will rise into the
60s, likely reaching the upper 60s over central areas. Both near
surface and vertically integrated smoke densities will decrease
compared to Wednesday. Although some smoke will linger, impacts
to incoming solar radiation should be small. Temperatures are
expected to reach the 80s, with upper 80s possible over central
areas around and north of Bangor. Along the coast, temperatures
will be cooler, although sunshine should allow temperatures to
outperform the NBM before the sea breeze kicks in during the
afternoon.

As the front approaches and moisture pools ahead of it,
profiles will become increasingly unstable with MLCAPE around
1000 j/kg over central and northern areas with around 20 to 35
kts of effective shear. Some uncertainty remains with mid-level
lapse rates and dry air in the mid to upper levels. However,
most solutions suggest potential for at least a few strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging
winds north of the marine layer. Heavy rainfall will also be a
threat into the evening as the SW-NE oriented boundary nearly
aligns with the storm motion, leading to the potential for some
training. Heavy rainfall processes are also favored with deep
warm cloud layers up to 10kft AGL and anomalously high
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches.

The cold front moves through the area Thursday night, eventually
stalling across Downeast or near the coast. Patchy fog and
isolated showers are possible just ahead of and along the front
as it stalls. It will be one of the most mild nights of the year
so far with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Friday the
front will focus most convection south of the area, but a few
showers will remain possible, especially over central and
southern portions of the area with lingering instability. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the 70s
to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance diverges significantly for this weekend, but
generally favors yet another unsettled and wet weekend, with the
GFS taking a strong low pressure area west of the area, while
most other guidance takes a weaker low off the coast to our
south with differing speed. Regardless of the exact solution, at
least showers are expected on Saturday, with higher
probabilities to the south given the favored non-GFS solution.
It is also worth noting the 12z GEFS mean is southeast of its
deterministic model, favoring a track over the area instead of
to the west.

Ridging will build east of the area early next week, but
troughing will persist west of the area over the Great Lakes.
This upper level pattern will favor a continuous stream of
moisture from the Gulf states, leading to showers and possibly
isolated thunderstorms, especially with daytime heating.
Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures are favored
into next week, with highs primarily in the 70s and lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
10 PM Update: 30kt SW LLWS has developed across all terminals
this evening with the development of a surface inversion. This
LLWS will remain for several hours, dissipating as the stable
layer increases in depth, which will be around 06z for northern
terminals, and closer to 09z at BGR/BHB and areas closer to the
coast.

Previous Discussion:
Generally VFR conditions expected tonight through
Wednesday. However, smoke and haze could begin to impact
visibilities across northern areas Wednesday afternoon.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots tonight, then 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night: VFR. MIFG possible at lower lying
terminals and near rivers around daybreak. S winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday: VFR with TEMPO TSRA mainly north of BGR. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Winds S at
5-15 kts for BGR and coastal terminals, with SW winds at 5-15
kts for northern terminals.

Thursday Night: VFR at northern Aroostook terminals, MVFR/IFR at
southern terminals. Variable and mainly light winds, shifting
NW at northern terminals with a weak FROPA.

Friday: VFR/MVFR cigs. -SHRA/VCSH possible. Light winds, NNW at
northern terminals and S at coastal terminals.

Saturday: MVFR cigs with possible IFR in -RA. Light SE winds 10
kts or less.

Sunday: Low confidence with potential for VFR and dry conditions
(60 percent chance) with NW winds 10-15 kts or MVFR/IFR with -RA
(40 percent chance) and light SW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria
through Friday. Winds and wave heights increase slightly this
weekend, but will likely remain below advisory criteria.
Visibility reductions are possible in showers and fog Thursday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
     for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/MStrauser
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/MStrauser