


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
219 FXUS61 KCAR 181049 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 649 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in overhead through tonight, then slowly slides to the east through Sunday night. Low pressure will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low will approach from the west Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 649 AM Update: Cloud cover has slowly spread westward and now covers most of the forecast area this morning. This cloud cover kept early morning temperatures mild and, should it remain in place, will keep high temperatures cooler today. The western edge of this stratus deck may erode this morning, but the eastern portion of the forecast area may see mostly cloudy skies through the entire day once more. The sky forecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend, and the max temperatures for today have been lowered further due to the persistent cloudiness and lack of any meaningful source of warm air advection. Previous Discussion: A low level stratus deck remains across the eastern half of our forecast area this morning, which has been keeping early morning temperatures mild in the lower 40s. This cloud cover will gradually erode through the day, but it may not be until this afternoon when the eastern edge of the CWA sees skies begin to clear out. With this persistent cloud cover, high temperatures may only lift into the mid to upper 50s, though clear areas in the west and Bangor area could lift into the lower 60s. Clearing will be short lived, as cloud cover will begin to move in tonight into the day on Sunday ahead of the next low pressure system. Though winds will remain light, the increase in cloud cover will limit radiational cooling potential, and lows may only fall into the upper 30s tonight. For Sunday, a slight increase in southerly winds will advect warmer air into the region, with temperatures lifting into the lower 60s despite the increasing cloud cover. That said, if the clouds build in more quickly than currently modeled, highs on Sunday could still struggle to get out of the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night: The approaching low pressure system will move closer to the state. Models show very tight pressure gradients for the night and into Monday. Decided to increase wind speeds for the night, which will create a well mixed boundary layer. Temps should be in the low 40s with increasing clouds. Monday: The frontal boundary should move closer to the region. The models show good agreement with the start time of the rain being later in the afternoon. Decided to adjust the NBM forecast to show this slow down. Rain should begin the SW and move NE. Gusty S winds will continue through the day with temps in the 60s. Monday night: Rain should continue throughout the night as the cold front moves through. As of this update, the majority of rainfall should be through the night with the higher amounts across the south. Breezy SE winds should continue with temps in the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The previously mentioned low pressure system should continue to produce light rain through Tuesday. The next large low pressure system should bring more rain to the area as a possible triple point of the occlusion. Model are still uncertain with the timing a progression of the low as well as the amount of rain with the system. Confidence is increasing with rain coming towards the end of the week. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs across most terminals this morning. KMLT through KBHB should improve towards VFR as the stratus clouds erode on the western edge, though eastern terminals may continue to see MVFR cigs through much of the day. The MVFR OVC cigs may finally gradually improve late today, but confidence is low that Aroostook terminals will improve prior to 00z, and there is a chance the MVFR cigs could last well into the night as well should this cloud deck remain. Winds light and variable today through tonight. Cloud cover will begin to increase on Sunday once more but cigs should remain VFR, and winds will turn SE at 5 to 10 kts on Sunday. SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR. S winds 5-15 kts. Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain. SSE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. SSE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Tue-Tue night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR in rain. SSE winds 5-10 kts Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. Rain. SSE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday with light winds and seas around 2 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels Sunday through Sunday night. SCA conditions are then possible Monday into Monday night. Winds decrease below SCA conditions Tuesday and remain for the rest of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AES Short Term...ARL Long Term...ARL Aviation...AES/ARL Marine...AES/ARL