Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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048 FXUS61 KCAR 081732 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1232 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes north of the area today sending a cold front south across the area. High pressure builds in for the weekend. Low pressure approaches Sunday night and moves east on Monday. High pressure builds in Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 pm update... Cold front easily seen on radar and vis satellite imagery this afternoon just crossing the St. Lawrence. Based on it/s current speed it should be entering the northwest with a band of heavier showers within the hour. A few convective cells are showing up and front may make its presence know with gusty winds accompanying it through. Previous discussion: Low pressure in central Quebec early this morning will move to Anticosti Island this evening, and continues off across southern Newfoundland tonight. As the low passes to our north it will push a cold front south across the FA this afternoon with a few showers, mainly from the Katahdin Region north. The wind will shift into the west/northwest and increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts to 35 mph possible by late in the day across the higher terrain in the north, and in/near showers. The pressure gradient tightens tonight along with steep low level lapse rates below 850H. The wind is expected to be 40 to 45 knots at 850H and there is a good chance for wind gusts to 50 mph across the western zones tonight, especially across the higher terrain. Have issued a wind advisory for northwest Aroostook County, northern Somerset County, and northern and central Piscataquis County. Further east, it will be a windy night, but wind gusts will mostly be in the 35 to 45 mph and will thus keep areas out of the higher terrain out of the advisory, especially given that most leaves are off the trees and the dry ground. Temperatures today will be a few degrees above average with highs in the mid 40s far north to the mid 50s in Bangor and along the coast. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to low 30s north to the mid 30s along the coast, but the gusty wind will make it feel colder than the actual air temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Saturday we will be on the backside of the departing 500mb trof with a 1031mb surface high working into eastern Ontario. Sunny skies are expected with NW cold air advection. Decent mixing expected so NW winds 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph possible much of the day but slowly weakening into the afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Highs top out in the upper 30s across the north, low to mid 40s for the Central Highlands/Southern Aroostook to the Downeast coast. Saturday night into Sunday the surface high drifts south of the Gulf of Maine waters as a weak return flow sets up by Sunday afternoon. Clear skies expecting the morning to start out in the 20s for all locations expect the immediate coastline where low 30s will be present. Gradual increasing high clouds but mostly sunny day is expected Sunday with light winds. Highs in the upper 40s north and low 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall...looking into the latest modeled teleconnections suggests very little shift in the weather pattern is expected for the long term heading into mid November. +PNA currently with ridging in the west begins to weaken and turn negative heading into mid month with much of the GEFS ensemble members going at least -0.5SD. The current +NAO with a more zonal jet stream over the Atlantic will trend back towards neutral. NAO is a struggle with huge range differences in the GEFS ensemble members between +1SD and -1SD. NAO going negative could drive much colder air south into the Eastern US but with a negative PNA that is unlikely given the lack of a ridge in the western US with a return of troughing out west. A neutral NAO and -PNA within our ENSO neutral regime suggests continues temperature averages above normal with no strong signal for precip as the pattern will be progressive suggestion a lack of precip. Sun Night - Mon (Veterans Day)...Next weather maker on tap. Progressive 500mb low will track late Sun night into Mon AM into Quebec. GFS/GDPS/ECMWF and ICON continue rather good agreement on placement with a surface low beneath the 500mb low nearly vertically stacked. A warm occluded front will be lifting north through New England into Monday AM and will push NE into Maine. Good agreement that a weak triple point low will likely develop over Maine as it tracks along the Midcoast to Downeast coast through the day Monday. This system is progressive and with no cold air this will be a rain event for the CWA but cannot rule out a few snowflakes falling before sunrise on Monday in the North Woods. As the shortwave progresses over Maine during the day Monday expect the triple point low to take over as the primary surface low as it enters New Brunswick with upper level divergence supporting strengthening. Expecting light rain during the day Monday and will taper to showers Mon night as the low tracks into the Maritimes and deepens. Kind of a waste if you are a snow lover...Mon AM temperatures will be above freezing for most as warm air advects northward. Expect highs Mon in the low 40s north and mid 50s for Bangor region to the Downeast coast including the Route 6&9 corridor in interior Downeast. Unfortunately for any outdoor Veterans Day activities expecting a lot of gloomy and wet weather across the CWA. Tue...A shortwave will be passing through with NNW flow which will result in a partly sunny day with a bunch of clouds around. Guidance has made this shortwave stronger over the last couple rounds of model runs. A surface cold front will push through the area and the trends in guidance show the higher potential of convective showers along the front. These showers may pose a risk of gusty winds and although temperatures in the 40s in the north it means they will be rain showers. However, with -2C at 925mb advecting in we cannot rule out graupel pellets if any shower can get a little more convective robustness to it. Temperatures will be in the 50s across the Bangor region to the coast so precipitation should stay all rain. Wed...Latest GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles and operational runs remaining consistent with high pressure over the area. For now going with NBM and that results in a mostly sunny day. 20s and low 30s to start with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s north and mid 40s south with light northerly winds. Beyond into late week...Significant model differences on what may result. Operational models are trying to show an overall strengthening -NAO blocking pattern to set up in the North Atlantic. This opens the door for a potential system but scenarios vary from a coastal storm to a slow moving cold front with precipitation. Temperatures are all over the place so if its snow or rain is a question as well. Given the teleconnection ensemble forecasts this favors more progressive systems but at this point have opted to stick to NBM with basically 40-50% chances of POPs and around normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through tomorrow. Only concern will be strong nw winds as a cold front moves through. SW winds rapidly shift to the northwest and will gust to between 25-30kts this afternoon/evening with gusts over 30kts common on Saturday. LLWS may be brief as the cold front moves through this afternoon but did not include at this time due to short duration. SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR. NW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. Sun...VFR. W-SW winds 5-15kt. Mon...MVFR/IFR with LIFR possible. -RA likely. E-SE winds 5-10kt shifting SW in the afternoon. Tue...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA expected. NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 30kt possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The gale watch was upgraded to a gale warning for tonight and into Saturday morning. Expect NW wind to gust to 35 knots with a few gusts to 40 knots possible late tonight/early Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: NW winds will remain gusty through Sat evening up to 30kt. Seas will subside Sat afternoon into the evening back to 1-3ft. Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions through early week. Midweek wind gusts and swells may approach SCA conditions again over the Coastal Waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001-003-004-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Buster/CB Short Term...Sinko Long Term...Sinko Aviation...Buster/CB/Sinko Marine...Buster/CB/Sinko