219
FXUS61 KCAR 181049
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in overhead through tonight, then slowly
slides to the east through Sunday night. Low pressure will cross
the region Monday night into Tuesday. Another low will approach
from the west Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
649 AM Update: Cloud cover has slowly spread westward and now
covers most of the forecast area this morning. This cloud cover
kept early morning temperatures mild and, should it remain in
place, will keep high temperatures cooler today. The western
edge of this stratus deck may erode this morning, but the
eastern portion of the forecast area may see mostly cloudy skies
through the entire day once more. The sky forecast has been
adjusted to reflect this trend, and the max temperatures for
today have been lowered further due to the persistent cloudiness
and lack of any meaningful source of warm air advection.

Previous Discussion:
A low level stratus deck remains across the eastern half of our
forecast area this morning, which has been keeping early morning
temperatures mild in the lower 40s. This cloud cover will
gradually erode through the day, but it may not be until this
afternoon when the eastern edge of the CWA sees skies begin to
clear out. With this persistent cloud cover, high temperatures
may only lift into the mid to upper 50s, though clear areas in
the west and Bangor area could lift into the lower 60s.

Clearing will be short lived, as cloud cover will begin to move
in tonight into the day on Sunday ahead of the next low pressure
system. Though winds will remain light, the increase in cloud
cover will limit radiational cooling potential, and lows may
only fall into the upper 30s tonight. For Sunday, a slight
increase in southerly winds will advect warmer air into the
region, with temperatures lifting into the lower 60s despite the
increasing cloud cover. That said, if the clouds build in more
quickly than currently modeled, highs on Sunday could still
struggle to get out of the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night: The approaching low pressure system will move
closer to the state. Models show very tight pressure gradients
for the night and into Monday. Decided to increase wind speeds
for the night, which will create a well mixed boundary layer.
Temps should be in the low 40s with increasing clouds.

Monday: The frontal boundary should move closer to the region.
The models show good agreement with the start time of the rain
being later in the afternoon. Decided to adjust the NBM forecast
to show this slow down. Rain should begin the SW and move NE.
Gusty S winds will continue through the day with temps in the
60s.

Monday night: Rain should continue throughout the night as the
cold front moves through. As of this update, the majority of
rainfall should be through the night with the higher amounts
across the south. Breezy SE winds should continue with temps in
the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The previously mentioned low pressure system should continue to
produce light rain through Tuesday. The next large low pressure
system should bring more rain to the area as a possible triple
point of the occlusion. Model are still uncertain with the
timing a progression of the low as well as the amount of rain
with the system. Confidence is increasing with rain coming
towards the end of the week. Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs across most terminals this morning. KMLT
through KBHB should improve towards VFR as the stratus clouds
erode on the western edge, though eastern terminals may continue
to see MVFR cigs through much of the day. The MVFR OVC cigs
may finally gradually improve late today, but confidence is low
that Aroostook terminals will improve prior to 00z, and there is
a chance the MVFR cigs could last well into the night as well
should this cloud deck remain. Winds light and variable today
through tonight. Cloud cover will begin to increase on Sunday
once more but cigs should remain VFR, and winds will turn SE at
5 to 10 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR. S winds 5-15 kts.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain. SSE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots.

Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain. SSE winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tue-Tue night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR in rain. SSE winds
5-10 kts

Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. Rain. SSE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory
levels today through Sunday with light winds and seas around 2
ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels Sunday through Sunday
night. SCA conditions are then possible Monday into Monday
night. Winds decrease below SCA conditions Tuesday and remain
for the rest of the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL