286
FXUS61 KCAR 052354
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
654 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest south of the area tonight. Weak low
pressure will approach from the southwest on Thursday and cross
the area Thursday evening. High pressure will build in from the
west on Friday and crest over the area Saturday. Low pressure
will track to our south on Sunday. High pressure will build
toward the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
654 PM Update: Clear skies persist across the forecast area
under a ridge of high pressure. As winds continue to decrease
this evening, surface decoupling is likely, leading to
temperatures quickly dropping below zero overnight. A few
adjustments made to temperature, dewpoint, and sky forecasts
based on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:
Skies will remain clear overnight, and as winds drop off in the
evening, lows will drop below zero for all but the immediate
coast. On Thursday, temperatures will warm up rapidly as a warm
front crosses the area. Overrunning will generate snow beginning
midday Thursday and continuing into Thursday evening. This
system is moving rapidly, so heaviest snowfall rates will be
Thursday afternoon and evening. Snowfall totals are expected to
remain sub-advisory, but the timing of this system could add
some challenges to the tomorrow evening commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure system to our northwest moves eastward, bringing a
trough over Maine. At the same time, a weaker low pressure
system to our south begins to track generally up along the
coastline. The entire forecast region is expected to start
precipitation as snow early Thursday evening. Warm air is
expected to surge ahead of the coastal system for a brief period
of time overnight, causing the area to rise above freezing. As
a result, areas along the coast have a high chance of seeing
some light freezing rain occur overnight. Based on soundings and
guidance, it seems that ice accumulation should only amount to
a trace. Once temperatures continue to rise, freezing rain is
expected to transition over to rain. That being said, there is
some model uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system
to our south, and how much warm air is going to advect in front
of it. Everywhere else in the forecasting region has good
chances for now, with most areas getting 2-3 inches of snow
Thursday night into Friday morning. This results in sub-
advisory criteria snow totals for the entire event. Based on
soundings, included a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the
Central Highlands to Upper Penobscot Valley. Low temperatures
Thursday night should be in the 20s and low 30s along the coast.
Highs on Friday could be will range from mid-20s in the north
and mid-30s in the south.

Tight pressure gradient brings gusty winds throughout the region
most of the day of Friday, which in northern counties, could
lead to some blowing snow conditions. Winds begin to calm down
by Friday night. Lows Friday night are forecast to be in single
digits in the north and teens in the south. Highs on Saturday
in the teens in the north and 20s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday night, models indicate that a low pressure to our
south moves out to sea, bringing a good chance for snowfall this
weekend. The entire forecast region should see some snow from
this system late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and
the highest snow total chances would be along the coast. That
being said, model guidance has this storm system moving south,
which would reduce snow total amounts. This system then moves
out to sea by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures decrease this
weekend into early next weeks, leading to some nights below
zero. High pressure builds in on Monday. There does seem to be a
low pressure system that moves in from our northwest on
Tuesday, which could bring some snow showers to northern
counties Tuesday night into Thursday, but too early to be
confident.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR continues for all terminals through midday
Thursday, becoming MVFR/IFR in snow through the afternoon from
south to north. Winds light and variable overnight, becoming S
wind 5 to 10 kts during the day on Thursday. A few gusts to 20
kts at northern terminals possible late on Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR. Snow and patching blowing
snow in the north, and potential for freezing drizzle /
freezing rain in southern terminals. LLWS chance possible. Winds
from the S/SW, beginning to pick up to 15-20 kt gusts down
south and 20-25 kt gusts in the north by early Friday morning.

Friday  Friday night: MVFR/IFR in northern terminals, VFR at
southern terminals. Chance of snow showers in the north
alongside blowing snow could reduce visibility. Winds from the
west with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible at all terminals. Snow
showers should begin to decrease late Friday night / early
Saturday morning.

Saturday -Sat Night: VFR. Could be MVFR at northern terminals
due to low ceilings. Winds from the west, gusting to 15 kt in
the south, and 20 in the north.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with snow. Northeast winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming north.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday...VFR. Variable winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Light winds and seas less than 5 ft will persist
through the night. Winds are expected to increase above 25kts
tomorrow afternoon. Light freezing spray will continue through
the evening, but then diminish as the winds decrease.
Temperatures on Thursday will rapidly warm and freezing spray is
not expected. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 4 to 5 feet
Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Gale watch currently in effect as wind gusts and
seas begin to pickup Thursday night, lasting until early
Saturday morning. Winds shift from the SE to the W between
Thursday night into the weekend. Rain possible Thursday night.
Potential for freezing spray Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night
     for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/LF
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...AStrauser/LF/Brennan
Marine...AStrauser/LF/Brennan