691
FXUS61 KCAR 081414
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
914 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes north of the area today sending a cold front
south across the area.  High pressure builds in for the weekend.
Low pressure approaches Sunday night and moves east on Monday.
High pressure builds in Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 am update...
Rain showers have finally moved into the St. John Valley and the
North Woods and fcst is right on track with chcs increasing
acrs the north in the next couple of hours. Cold front is
currently located north of the St. Lawrence Seaway and
dropping south fast. Winds have already picked up and deep
mixing with fropa, along with tightening pressure gradient, will
allow nw winds to gust to advisory levels tonight. Only minor
tweaks needed with this update.

Previous discussion:
Low pressure in central Quebec early this morning will
move to Anticosti Island this evening, and continues off
across southern Newfoundland tonight. As the low passes to
our north it will push a cold front south across the FA this
afternoon with a few showers, mainly from the Katahdin Region
north. The wind will shift into the west/northwest and increase
to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts to 35 mph possible by
late in the day across the higher terrain in the north, and
in/near showers.

The pressure gradient tightens tonight along with steep low level
lapse rates below 850H. The wind is expected to be 40 to 45 knots at
850H and there is a good chance for wind gusts to 50 mph across the
western zones tonight, especially across the higher terrain.
Have issued a wind advisory for northwest Aroostook County,
northern Somerset County, and northern and central Piscataquis
County. Further east, it will be a windy night, but wind gusts
will mostly be in the 35 to 45 mph and will thus keep areas out
of the higher terrain out of the advisory, especially given that
most leaves are off the trees and the dry ground.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees above average with highs in
the mid 40s far north to the mid 50s in Bangor and along the coast.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to low 30s north to the
mid 30s along the coast, but the gusty wind will make it feel colder
than the actual air temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday we will be on the backside of the departing 500mb trof
with a 1031mb surface high working into eastern Ontario. Sunny
skies are expected with NW cold air advection. Decent mixing
expected so NW winds 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph possible
much of the day but slowly weakening into the afternoon as the
pressure gradient weakens. Highs top out in the upper 30s across
the north, low to mid 40s for the Central Highlands/Southern
Aroostook to the Downeast coast. Saturday night into Sunday the
surface high drifts south of the Gulf of Maine waters as a weak
return flow sets up by Sunday afternoon. Clear skies expecting
the morning to start out in the 20s for all locations expect the
immediate coastline where low 30s will be present. Gradual
increasing high clouds but mostly sunny day is expected Sunday
with light winds. Highs in the upper 40s north and low 50s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall...looking into the latest modeled teleconnections
suggests very little shift in the weather pattern is expected
for the long term heading into mid November. +PNA currently with
ridging in the west begins to weaken and turn negative heading
into mid month with much of the GEFS ensemble members going at
least -0.5SD. The current +NAO with a more zonal jet stream over
the Atlantic will trend back towards neutral. NAO is a struggle
with huge range differences in the GEFS ensemble members between
+1SD and -1SD. NAO going negative could drive much colder air
south into the Eastern US but with a negative PNA that is
unlikely given the lack of a ridge in the western US with a
return of troughing out west. A neutral NAO and -PNA within our
ENSO neutral regime suggests continues temperature averages
above normal with no strong signal for precip as the pattern
will be progressive suggestion a lack of precip.

Sun Night - Mon (Veterans Day)...Next weather maker on tap.
Progressive 500mb low will track late Sun night into Mon AM
into Quebec. GFS/GDPS/ECMWF and ICON continue rather good
agreement on placement with a surface low beneath the 500mb low
nearly vertically stacked. A warm occluded front will be
lifting north through New England into Monday AM and will push
NE into Maine. Good agreement that a weak triple point low will
likely develop over Maine as it tracks along the Midcoast to
Downeast coast through the day Monday. This system is
progressive and with no cold air this will be a rain event for
the CWA but cannot rule out a few snowflakes falling before
sunrise on Monday in the North Woods. As the shortwave
progresses over Maine during the day Monday expect the triple
point low to take over as the primary surface low as it enters
New Brunswick with upper level divergence supporting
strengthening. Expecting light rain during the day Monday and
will taper to showers Mon night as the low tracks into the
Maritimes and deepens. Kind of a waste if you are a snow
lover...Mon AM temperatures will be above freezing for most as
warm air advects northward. Expect highs Mon in the low 40s
north and mid 50s for Bangor region to the Downeast coast
including the Route 6&9 corridor in interior Downeast.
Unfortunately for any outdoor Veterans Day activities expecting
a lot of gloomy and wet weather across the CWA.

Tue...A shortwave will be passing through with NNW flow which
will result in a partly sunny day with a bunch of clouds around.
Guidance has made this shortwave stronger over the last couple
rounds of model runs. A surface cold front will push through
the area and the trends in guidance show the higher potential of
convective showers along the front. These showers may pose a
risk of gusty winds and although temperatures in the 40s in the
north it means they will be rain showers. However, with -2C at
925mb advecting in we cannot rule out graupel pellets if any
shower can get a little more convective robustness to it.
Temperatures will be in the 50s across the Bangor region to the
coast so precipitation should stay all rain.

Wed...Latest GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles and operational runs
remaining consistent with high pressure over the area. For now
going with NBM and that results in a mostly sunny day. 20s and
low 30s to start with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s north
and mid 40s south with light northerly winds.

Beyond into late week...Significant model differences on what
may result. Operational models are trying to show an overall
strengthening -NAO blocking pattern to set up in the North
Atlantic. This opens the door for a potential system but
scenarios vary from a coastal storm to a slow moving cold front
with precipitation. Temperatures are all over the place so if
its snow or rain is a question as well. Given the
teleconnection ensemble forecasts this favors more progressive
systems but at this point have opted to stick to NBM with
basically 40-50% chances of POPs and around normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR at times today at the northern terminals with
VFR expected late this afternoon into tonight, although another
period of MVFR ceilings is possible tonight, mainly at KFVE.
Brief IFR in any heavier showers at the northern terminals today.
VFR at the Downeast terminals. NW wind increasing to 15 to 25
knots and gusty this afternoon, and increasing a bit more
tonight with gusts over 40 knots possible at KFVE. A brief
window of LLWS is possible as the cold front pushes south, but
the LLWS will likely not last very long and is not in the Tafs.

SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR. NW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt.

Sun...VFR. W-SW winds 5-15kt.

Mon...MVFR/IFR with LIFR possible. -RA likely. E-SE winds
5-10kt shifting SW in the afternoon.

Tue...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA expected. NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up
to 30kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The gale watch was upgraded to a gale warning for
tonight and into Saturday morning. Expect NW wind to gust to 35
knots with a few gusts to 40 knots possible late tonight/early
Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: NW winds will remain gusty through Sat evening up
to 30kt. Seas will subside Sat afternoon into the evening back
to 1-3ft. Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions through early
week. Midweek wind gusts and swells may approach SCA conditions
again over the Coastal Waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     MEZ001-003-004-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/CB
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...Buster/CB/Sinko
Marine...Buster/CB/Sinko