644
FXUS61 KCAR 261649
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will stall over Maine today while low pressure
tracks along the stalled boundary into Sunday. High pressure
will drift south of the region Monday. A warm front lifts
northeast on Tuesday associated with another low approaching
from the west. Low pressure will track north of the area on
Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Surface low pressure is currently located across western New
England, with a warm front extending toward the Downeast coast.
The low will slowly approach the forecast area later this
afternoon while starting to vertically stack beneath the
supporting upper low. The warm front will lift to the Downeast
region before stalling, though exactly how far north the front
reaches is still uncertain. Rain will persist across the
forecast area this afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times,
particularly across central and Downeast portions of the
forecast area. Have kept the risk of an isolated thunderstorm
along the Downeast coast and coastal waters. High temperatures
today will range from the mid to upper 40s north, to around 50
Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along
with expected afternoon temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
This morning a very sharp 500mb deepening low over the Great
Lakes with surface low pressure strengthening near Lake Erie and
Ontario. A 70-80kt jet streak will be rounding the base of the
trof setting up increased upper level divergence which will
support development of the surface convergence for the low
pressure. Models remain on track to develop this low along the
occlusion and track it into Maine by late tonight. PWATs will
rapidly increase to 1-1.4 inches across the CWA this morning
which is +2 to +3 standard deviation comparing to climatological
normals.

Expecting S-ESE winds to be breezy gusting 25-35 mph along the
coast but inland expecting the low level inversion to keep winds
stamped down. Low pressure will slowly track along the boundary
with rain continuing into Sunday AM. There will likely be a
somewhat dry slow tonight that will likely cut rain to showers
and some drizzle. By Sunday AM expecting widespread rainfall
totals of 1.25-1.75 inches which is very beneficial given the
recent fire danger. Tonight, expecting upper 30s to low 40s
north with mid 40s south.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will track away to the northeast Sunday morning as a
secondary surface low and the center of deep upper level low
pressure tracks along the Maine coast. The pressure gradient north
of the low will combine with high pressure building in from the west
to bring an increasing north wind. Some showers will continue over
the area, mostly across the north, in some moisture wrapping back
over the upper low. Clouds Monday night will be followed by some
clearing as the low continues to move away. The wind will keep the
air mixed so lows will only be around 40 over the region.

High pressure building in from the west will bring a mostly sunny
and mild day on Monday with inland highs reaching the low to mid 60s
across the region. A brisk north to northwesterly wind will
continue over the area behind the low Monday morning and midday
with winds diminishing at the end of the day as the high builds
in. This will be followed by a mostly clear and mild night
Monday night with lows in the upper 30s to near 40.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday high pressure will slide southeast of the area. A return
flow behind the high will advect even warmer air north across the
region. However, clouds will increase ahead of the next frontal
system approaching from the west. Highs will reach the upper 60s
inland.

Low pressure tracking through Quebec will pull an occlusion toward
the area Tuesday night with secondary low pressure forming over
Southern Quebec. This will bring clouds, an increasing south wind,
and some scattered to numerous showers Tuesday night ahead of a
cold front. Most of the showers will be across the north where
some surface convergence and a bit of divergence aloft will
support lift. Winds will become westerly and gusty late at night
following the cold frontal passage and some showers may linger
over northwestern parts of the region.

Strong consolidating low pressure will track to our north on
Wednesday. As this low tracks into the Northern Maritimes, strong
gusty westerly winds will follow during the day Wednesday. The north
will remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers while partial
clearing builds into the south. The sky will trend clearer across
the rest of the region Wednesday night as this low continues to move
east and away and high pressure builds in from the west.

High pressure will build over the area Thursday bringing a more
tranquil and milder day with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in
the upper 50s, to near 60 in some interior southern spots.

Another low will approach and track up to our west on Friday
bringing clouds, some showers, and increased humidity.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR today through tonight with rain and patchy
fog. Rain heavy at times today. Isolated thunderstorms possible
along the Downeast coast today. Across northern areas,
east/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
becoming east/northeast. Across southern areas, southeast/south
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Variable winds
around 10 knots tonight. Southerly/southwesterly low level wind
shear today through early tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR in the afternoon. NE to N
wind.

Sunday night...MVFR, becoming VFR from south to north late. N wind.

Monday...VFR. N wind, diminishing late.

Monday night...VFR. Light N wind, becoming S late.

Tuesday...VFR, lowing to MVFR over the north late. Light S wind.

Tuesday night...MVFR lowing to IFR. S wind.

Wednesday...IFR, improving to VFR Downeast and MVFR north. Strong
gusty W wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible
today. Rain and patchy fog today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed late Sunday into Monday morning
for N winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters and
seas up to 6 ft. A SCA may be needed again Tuesday night through
Wednesday for SW winds gusting up to 25 kt, becoming W. Seas
will likely build up to 8 ft late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday in response to the winds.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer