952
FXUS61 KCAR 220648
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
248 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- High Surf Advisory issued for coastal Hancock and Washington
  counties today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible which could lead to
minor urban flooding.

2) Dangerous rip currents and high surf along the Downeast
coast today.

3) Potential for a system moving in early next week, bringing
another round of wetting rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible which could
lead to minor urban flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system approaches from the west today. Frontal
passage is anticipated early this morning as a warm front lifts
over the area, leaving northern and eastern Maine in the warm
sector of the system. Ample moisture moves in along frontal
boundary, with PWATs in the 1-2 inch range. Generally looking
at higher rainfall totals along the Downeast coast, with the
coast receiving around 1  1.4 inches. Roughly 0.5  1 inches in
Central Highlands and northern Maine.

There is a chance for some thunderstorms to move through in the
north and Central Highlands/Upper Penobscot Valley regions, as
the associated cold front with the system moves through this
afternoon into evening. CAMs are picking up on some CAPE, DCAPE,
decent shear parameters, low-level lapse rates, and low CIN.
Skies will be mostly overcast throughout the area, however,
which could cause a damper in convection. North Woods and
Aroostook region seems to have the best potential for
convection, especially if there is any bit of clearing in the
cloud cover. That being said, instability does exist throughout
northern and eastern Maine, and any location with some sky
clearing and along the front (which will move from west to east
during the afternoon), could see some developing storms. There
is also a potential for some, albeit light, Canadian wildfire
smoke to move in along thew cold front boundary, which would
also cause less convection. Greatest threats for these storms
will be lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall
could result in localized urban/poor-drainage flooding.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous rip currents and high surf along the
Downeast coast today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Unusually rough seas by late July standards are expected to
peak today. This is usually the quietest time of year on the
waters, but seas in the neighborhood of 6-9 feet are expected up
to the coastline, with a 9-10 second period swell from the
south. People along the coast should exercise caution if
recreating. Water temperatures in the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a system moving in early next
week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A ridge of high pressure will crest over the forecast area this
weekend, and during this time temperatures could build to
slightly above seasonal averages with highs in the low to mid
80s. By Monday next week, another shortwave may approach from
the west, bringing the next round of moisture into the area that
could charge the atmosphere for more rainfall across the CWA.
Recent guidance suggests the bulk of the instability with this
system will hold off until Tuesday at the earliest, where more
CAPE could lead to the development of some thunderstorms. More
moisture on Tuesday may also support more efficient rain
processes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...MVFR/IFR for rain showers. Also anticipating overnight
fog at KBGR/KBHB. LLWS this morning, until daybreak. Winds
generally S/SE, at 10 - 15 kts. Thunderstorms expected this
afternoon, at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR. Expecting seabreeze to
keep KBHB out of convection. Thunderstorms could reduce
visibility and have gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Tonight...Rain and thunderstorms move through by dusk, and then
VFR conditions. SW winds in the north, and W winds Downeast, at
5 - 10 kts.

Thursday...VFR conditions. W winds at 10 - 15 kts.

Friday - Sunday...VFR conditions continue across all terminals.
SW winds shifting S 5 to 10 kts through the weekend, becoming
light and variable each night.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory conditions over intra-coastals and coastal
waters today into tonight. Wave heights reach their peak
tonight, roughly 6-9 ft. High Surf Advisory along the coastline,
due to elevated rip risk and rough seas. Some fog and rain
showers early this morning. Chance for some fog on eastern
waters Thursday morning. S winds today, shifting W by Thursday.

Winds and seas decrease below small craft advisory conditions
across all waters Friday through the weekend.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB